Why DroneShield (ASX:DRO) Is Up 44.5% After Winning A €2.8m Belgian Anti-Drone Deal – And What's Next

• DroneShield recently secured a €2.8 million contract with the Belgian government for handheld drone jammers, supporting the country's €50 million anti-drone initiative to protect airports and military sites.
• This agreement signals growing European urgency around counter-drone defence and could strengthen DroneShield's position as governments accelerate operational deployments over small-scale trials.
• We’ll now explore how this Belgian contract, set against surging European counter-drone demand, may influence DroneShield’s broader investment narrative.

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DroneShield Investment Narrative Recap

To own DroneShield, you need to believe that counter-drone technology will keep shifting from trials to large, repeat government deployments, with the sales pipeline converting into contracted revenue. The Belgian €2.8 million deal reinforces this demand trend, but does not materially reduce the key short term risk of lumpy, delay-prone defence contracts or intensifying competition from larger defence contractors.

The most relevant recent update here is DroneShield’s H1 2025 result, with A$72.32 million in sales and a return to profitability. This context matters, because contracts like Belgium’s sit on top of a business that has already shown it can scale revenue but still faces pressure to sustain margins as R&D spending rises to keep pace with rapidly evolving threats.

Yet against this contract momentum, investors should also be aware of the growing risk that larger defence primes may increasingly target the same counter-drone budgets...

Read the full narrative on DroneShield (it's free!)

DroneShield's narrative projects A$359.8 million revenue and A$96.1 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how DroneShield's forecasts yield a A$5.15 fair value, a 83% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Forty four Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for DroneShield span from A$0.50 to A$9.54, showing how widely views on upside differ. Set against this, the core debate remains whether surging counter-drone demand can offset DroneShield’s exposure to lumpy, delay prone government contracts and increasingly crowded defence competition.

Explore 44 other fair value estimates on DroneShield - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own DroneShield Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your DroneShield research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free DroneShield research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate DroneShield's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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