Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) After Its Full-Year Report

Investors in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at AU$134 following the release of its yearly results. Revenues came in 3.7% below expectations, at AU$26b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of AU$5.63 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Commonwealth Bank of Australia's 15 analysts is for revenues of AU$27.8b in 2025. This reflects a modest 6.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be AU$5.74, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$27.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$5.70 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of AU$97.66, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst has a price target of AU$110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$80.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Commonwealth Bank of Australia's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.5% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Commonwealth Bank of Australia is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Commonwealth Bank of Australia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Commonwealth Bank of Australia that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.