Stock Analysis

ARB's (ASX:ARB) 14% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

ASX:ARB
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When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the ARB Corporation Limited (ASX:ARB) share price is up 76% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 14% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 11% in the last year , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for ARB investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for ARB

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, ARB achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 11% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 12% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:ARB Earnings Per Share Growth October 26th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of ARB's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for ARB the TSR over the last 5 years was 93%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that ARB shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over one year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 14% a year, is even better. Is ARB cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.