The UBM Development AG (VIE:UBS) Yearly Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

UBM Development AG (VIE:UBS) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 82% to€4.77 per share. Revenues of €104m did beat expectations by 3.7%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UBM Development after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from UBM Development's five analysts is for revenues of €226.5m in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 119% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. UBM Development is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €1.60 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €230.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.81 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for UBM Development

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €27.95, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on UBM Development, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €30.75 and the most bearish at €24.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UBM Development's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that UBM Development is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 119% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 22% annual decline over the past five years. What's also interesting is that our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 2.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that UBM Development is expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around UBM Development's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that UBM Development's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on UBM Development. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple UBM Development analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - UBM Development has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.