Stock Analysis

Despite the downward trend in earnings at Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) (DFM:DNIR) the stock hikes 25%, bringing five-year gains to 261%

DFM:DNIR
Source: Shutterstock

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, if you buy shares in a high quality company at the right price, you can gain well over 100%. For instance, the price of Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance Co. (P.S.C.) (DFM:DNIR) stock is up an impressive 126% over the last five years. It's even up 25% in the last week.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the AE Insurance industry.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) actually saw its EPS drop 1.0% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

There's no sign of growing dividends, which might have explained the resilient share price. We doubt the diminishing revenue (at 2.2% per year) encouraged buyers. But a closer look at the history of earnings and revenue might give clues as to why the share price is up.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
DFM:DNIR Earnings and Revenue Growth November 23rd 2022

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) the TSR over the last 5 years was 261%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) shareholders gained a total return of 23% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 29% over five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Dubai National Insurance & Reinsurance (P.S.C.) (at least 2 which are potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AE exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.