PYPL logo

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stock Price

NasdaqGS:PYPL Community·US$50.1b Market Cap
  • 17 Narratives written by author
  • 13 Comments on narratives written by author
  • 1744 Fair Values set on narratives written by author

PYPL Share Price Performance

US$0
-67.83 (-100.00%)
US$68.00
Fair Value
US$0
-67.83 (-100.00%)
Price US$0

PYPL Community Narratives

·
Fair Value US$68 14.8% undervalued intrinsic discount

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

11users have liked this narrative
3users have commented on this narrative
83users have followed this narrative
Fair Value
·
Fair Value US$69.03 16.1% undervalued intrinsic discount

PayPal: Undervalued Cash Flow Machine or Value Trap?

8users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
10users have followed this narrative
Fair Value
·
Fair Value US$90.31 35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

The Underrated Transformation of a Digital Payments Giant

5users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
8users have followed this narrative
US$68
14.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) – updated with Q2 2026 actuals – 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (FY26 tracking toward ~$34.5B → implies only ~2% CAGR – target kept from the original model, now extra-conservative: stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8-6.0B (~13.8% today; $1.5B cost program on track, transaction-margin guidance raised in Q2 – path intact) 3. Share count FY2030: ~680-700M (from 862M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the actual ~6.3%/yr pace (920M → 862M in twelve months, ~$6B repurchased). Feasibility check: retiring ~170-180M shares over ~4 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within $6B+ annual free cash flow (adj. FCF >$1.8B in Q2 alone). 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8-6.0B / ~690M ≈ $8.40-8.75 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$101-105 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality, zero value assigned to the pending bank charter) 6. Discount back ~4.0 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $68 Every input is conservative on purpose. The move from $65 is mechanics, not momentum: a shorter discount horizon, a share count already below the model's glide path, and operating inputs confirmed at or above the conservative case. Notably, the $60.50 bid on the table now sits below even this deliberately conservative math. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the actual ~6.3%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$95-100. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
US$90.31
35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
9.79x
Price in 2031
US$129.99
US$69.03
16.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
4.06% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
9.89x
Price in 2031
US$99.51
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

Read the two profit lines together. GAAP net income of $1,104 million was down 12% year over year.Read more

View narrative
US$70.89
18.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5% p.a.
Profit Margin
13%
Future PE
12x
Price in 2031
US$114.17
US$60
3.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
Revenue
6.48% p.a.
Profit Margin
15%
Future PE
7.71x
Price in 2031
US$87.02
US$90.01
35.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
0.31% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.08%
Future PE
19.56x
Price in 2029
US$126.13
US$82
29.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.51% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.96%
Future PE
11.41x
Price in 2030
US$119.19

Trending Discussion

Updated Narratives

PYPL logo

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

Fair Value: US$70.89 18.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
1 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
PYPL logo

PayPal: PayPal Doesn't Need to Grow – It Needs to Stop Falling – A Mispriced Cash Machine With a Cannibal Buyback

Fair Value: US$68 14.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
83 users have set this as their fair value
3 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative
PYPL logo

The Underrated Transformation of a Digital Payments Giant

Fair Value: US$90.31 35.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
8 users have set this as their fair value
0 users have commented on this narrative
0 users have liked this narrative

Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued with excellent balance sheet.

1 Risk
3 Rewards

PayPal Holdings, Inc. Key Details

US$34.1b

Revenue

US$20.3b

Cost of Revenue

US$13.8b

Gross Profit

US$8.9b

Other Expenses

US$4.9b

Earnings

Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Reporting Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
5.73
40.48%
14.36%
67.6%
View Full Analysis

About PYPL

Founded
1998
Employees
23800
CEO
Enrique Lores
WebsiteView website
www.paypal.com

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Recent PYPL News & Updates

Recent updates

No updates