Orlen S.A.

WSE:PKN Voorraadrapport

Marktkapitalisatie: zł172.6b

Orlen Toekomstige groei

Future criteriumcontroles 1/6

De omzet van Orlen zal naar verwachting dalen met 1.4% per jaar, terwijl de jaarlijkse winst naar verwachting zal groeien met 10.1% per jaar. De winst per aandeel zal naar verwachting groeien met 15% per jaar. Het rendement op het eigen vermogen zal over 3 jaar naar verwachting 8.5% zijn.

Belangrijke informatie

10.1%

Groei van de winst

14.97%

Groei van de winst per aandeel

Oil and Gas winstgroei6.2%
Inkomstengroei-1.4%
Toekomstig rendement op eigen vermogen8.46%
Dekking van analisten

Good

Laatst bijgewerkt10 Jun 2026

Recente toekomstige groei-updates

Recent updates

Narratiefupdate • Jun 07

PKN: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced UBS Upgrade And Energa Recapitalisation Risk

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 127.33 to PLN 131.11, citing updated assumptions on long term revenue trends, margins and future P/E, along with recent Street research that has become more positive on the stock. What's in the News No recent news stories, periodical coverage or key developments were provided for Orlen in the supplied sources.
Analyseartikel • Jun 05

We Think Orlen's (WSE:PKN) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative

Investors signalled that they were pleased with Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) most recent earnings report. Looking deeper at...
Narratiefupdate • May 10

PKN: Future Returns Will Depend On Risky Energa Recapitalisation Plan

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 127.33 from PLN 119.22, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent research that has taken a more positive stance on the stock. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 127.33 as support for a more constructive stance on the stock, arguing that current pricing does not fully reflect updated assumptions on revenue and margins.
Narratiefupdate • Apr 26

PKN: Future Returns Will Hinge On Energa Integration And Margin Resilience

Analysts have adjusted their PLN price targets on Orlen only slightly, with a modest recalibration in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that reflects a mixed set of recent views, including a more positive stance from UBS and a more cautious one from Oddo BHF. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Orlen points to a split in opinion, with some analysts turning more optimistic and others taking a more cautious stance.
Narratiefupdate • Apr 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Resilience Proves Overstated

Analysts have raised their Orlen price target from PLN 114.33 to about PLN 119.22, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, slightly higher profit margins and a marginally richer future P/E multiple, with recent research including both an upgrade and a downgrade informing the new view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link their upgrade to a view that current valuation leaves some room for the shares to move closer to their refreshed fair value assumptions, anchored around the PLN 119.22 target.
Nieuw narratief • Mar 26

Regulated Energy Projects And LNG Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation, retail and gas trading. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narratiefupdate • Mar 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Assumptions Prove Fragile

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 95.58 to PLN 114.33, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as a mix of recent bullish and bearish Street calls. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link the higher fair value estimate of PLN 114.33 to expectations that Orlen can sustain healthier profit margins than previously assumed.
Nieuw narratief • Mar 11

Large CapEx And Refining Margin Normalization Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook

Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation and retail across several European markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narratiefupdate • Mar 06

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Execution Risks Intensify

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 95.58 from PLN 93.28, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the higher fair value estimate of PLN 95.58 as support for their view that current pricing may not fully reflect the updated revenue and margin assumptions built into their models.
Narratiefupdate • Feb 19

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Margin Risks Intensify

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Orlen up from PLN 91.47 to PLN 93.28, citing slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a modestly higher future P/E, even as at least one recent report has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 93.28 as support for the idea that current pricing may not fully reflect Orlen's earnings power under the updated profit margin assumptions.
Analyseartikel • Feb 07

Why We're Not Concerned About Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20x Orlen S.A. ( WSE:PKN ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...
Narratiefupdate • Feb 05

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Earnings Multiple Compresses

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from €87.31 to €91.47 per share, citing updated assumptions around a smaller revenue decline, a slightly higher profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple, even as at least one firm has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the updated view on a smaller revenue decline as a support for the higher fair value estimate of €91.47 per share, seeing this as a sign that the earnings base used in their models may be more resilient than previously assumed.
Narratiefupdate • Jan 22

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Lag As P/E Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their target price for Orlen broadly in line with prior levels, citing relatively unchanged fair value at 87.31, a stable 9.24% discount rate, and only small tweaks to assumptions around revenue trends, profit margin and future P/E of 12.05x. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share is unchanged at PLN 87.31.
Narratiefupdate • Jan 08

PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Disappoint As Earnings Multiple Stays Elevated

Analysts have kept their price target for Orlen unchanged at €87.31, reflecting steady assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, with no new Street research prompting a revision. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share remains unchanged at €87.31, with no adjustment to the underlying model inputs.
Analyseartikel • Jan 04

An Intrinsic Calculation For Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł136 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen's zł101 share price...
Narratiefupdate • Dec 18

PKN: Future Returns Will Remain Balanced As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Orlen higher to reflect a fair value of $87.31 per share, as they reiterate stable discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P E assumptions. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time to address key corporate matters requiring shareholder approval (Key Developments).
Analyseartikel • Dec 17

Returns At Orlen (WSE:PKN) Are On The Way Up

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Narratiefupdate • Dec 04

PKN: Earnings Multiple Will Rise As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken

Analysts have nudged their price target on Orlen higher to approximately $87.31 from about $85.86, citing a modestly richer future earnings multiple that more than offsets slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time.
Analyseartikel • Nov 29

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

Despite posting healthy earnings, Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) stock has been quite weak. Our analysis suggests that there...
Narratiefupdate • Nov 20

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve While Revenue Decline Persists Through 2025 Shareholder Meeting

Narrative Update on Orlen: Analyst Price Target Change Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 85.63 to PLN 85.86, citing improved profit margin expectations and a modest adjustment to the discount rate. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Narratiefupdate • Nov 05

PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve Despite Weakening Revenue Outlook By Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 83.86 to PLN 85.63, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a slightly higher future price-to-earnings expectation. This adjustment comes despite a modest downward revision in revenue growth outlook.
Analyseartikel • Oct 28

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...
Narratiefupdate • Oct 22

Analysts Maintain Orlen Price Target as Valuation Metrics Remain Stable Ahead of Shareholder Meeting

Analysts have maintained Orlen's price target at PLN 83.86, citing consistent expectations for future profitability and revenue growth in spite of industry headwinds. What's in the News Orlen S.A. will hold a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on October 28, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).
Narratiefupdate • Oct 08

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 80.08 to PLN 83.86. This update cites an improved fair value assessment and a modest increase in projected profit margins, even though revenue growth expectations are slightly lower.
Analyseartikel • Oct 01

Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 42% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł123 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen is estimated to be 30...
Narratiefupdate • Sep 23

Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance

Despite a further deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, Orlen’s net profit margin has improved, supporting a modest increase in analyst fair value to PLN80.08. What's in the News Orlen will not acquire all or part of GA Polyolefins shares, but remains open to further discussions on asset utilization.
Analyseartikel • Sep 13

Orlen (WSE:PKN) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'd...
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Nieuw narratief • Jan 19

Operations Diversification And Retail Expansion Will Build Future Resilience

Diversified operations and strategic investments aim to stabilize Orlen's revenue and boost capital efficiency and net margins.

Winst- en omzetgroeiprognoses

WSE:PKN - Toekomstschattingen van analisten en financiële gegevens uit het verleden (PLN Millions )
DatumInkomstenInkomstenVrije kasstroomGeldmiddelen uit operationele activiteitenGem. Aantal analisten
12/31/2028272,63715,3074,81536,9278
12/31/2027275,56616,4823,32538,2309
12/31/2026281,00617,602-5,08529,6158
3/31/2026269,9466,4519,95040,013N/A
12/31/2025267,8272,53117,28947,220N/A
9/30/2025270,4247,66715,15144,811N/A
6/30/2025277,3535,75416,10445,165N/A
3/31/2025286,2044,20711,23740,639N/A
12/31/2024294,8862,8265,69736,634N/A
9/30/2024317,3803,99226531,335N/A
6/30/2024328,9018,331-4,79928,808N/A
3/31/2024338,42014,376-4,59729,984N/A
12/31/2023371,91620,9225,72741,914N/A
9/30/2023380,56338,56616,95152,373N/A
6/30/2023374,02148,68424,32154,848N/A
3/31/2023352,79646,23128,99055,640N/A
12/31/2022282,41539,67712,40232,638N/A
9/30/2022217,08025,2021,85917,083N/A
6/30/2022180,60713,432-6712,849N/A
3/31/2022152,22612,047-1,25910,035N/A
12/31/2021131,34111,1222,07013,295N/A
9/30/2021113,6026,9794,51114,437N/A
6/30/2021101,0784,7212,45912,350N/A
3/31/202188,6656,84484110,575N/A
12/31/202086,1802,755-3267,247N/A
9/30/202090,5053,3404137,274N/A
6/30/202095,8163,9552,5638,506N/A
3/31/2020108,0341,2073,8098,658N/A
12/31/2019111,2034,300N/A9,319N/A
9/30/2019113,1234,424N/A7,155N/A
6/30/2019114,2385,221N/A7,276N/A
3/31/2019111,7115,363N/A5,661N/A
12/31/2018109,7065,556N/A4,980N/A
9/30/2018105,0206,440N/A6,822N/A
6/30/201899,4065,980N/A6,273N/A
3/31/201895,7305,777N/A7,887N/A
12/31/201795,3646,655N/A8,050N/A
9/30/201793,5326,853N/A9,712N/A
6/30/201789,8856,777N/A8,806N/A
3/31/201786,2156,844N/A7,077N/A
12/31/201679,5535,261N/A9,331N/A
9/30/201676,7383,391N/A8,351N/A
6/30/201679,1232,659N/A6,386N/A
3/31/201684,5442,418N/A7,301N/A
12/31/201588,3362,837N/A5,354N/A
9/30/201593,1511,702N/A4,199N/A
6/30/201598,8431,445N/A6,231N/A

Toekomstige groeivoorspellingen analisten

Verdiensten versus spaarpercentage: De verwachte winstgroei PKN ( 10.1% per jaar) ligt boven de spaarquote ( 5.3% ).

Winst versus markt: De winst van PKN ( 10.1% per jaar) zal naar verwachting langzamer groeien dan de markt Polish ( 11.6% per jaar).

Hoge groeiwinsten: De winst van PKN zal naar verwachting groeien, maar niet aanzienlijk.

Omzet versus markt: De omzet van PKN zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1.4% per jaar).

Hoge groei-inkomsten: De omzet van PKN zal naar verwachting de komende 3 jaar dalen ( -1.4% per jaar).

Groeiprognoses winst per aandeel

Toekomstig rendement op eigen vermogen

Toekomstige ROE: Het rendement op eigen vermogen PKN zal naar verwachting over 3 jaar laag zijn ( 8.5 %).

Ontdek groeibedrijven

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Bedrijfsanalyse en status van financiële gegevens

GegevensLaatst bijgewerkt (UTC-tijd)
Bedrijfsanalyse2026/06/11 01:41
Aandelenkoers aan het einde van de dag2026/06/11 00:00
Inkomsten2026/03/31
Jaarlijkse inkomsten2025/12/31

Gegevensbronnen

De gegevens die gebruikt zijn in onze bedrijfsanalyse zijn afkomstig van S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. De volgende gegevens worden gebruikt in ons analysemodel om dit rapport te genereren. De gegevens zijn genormaliseerd, waardoor er een vertraging kan optreden voordat de bron beschikbaar is.

PakketGegevensTijdframeVoorbeeld Amerikaanse bron *
Financiële gegevens bedrijf10 jaar
  • Resultatenrekening
  • Kasstroomoverzicht
  • Balans
Consensus schattingen analisten+3 jaar
  • Financiële prognoses
  • Koersdoelen analisten
Marktprijzen30 jaar
  • Aandelenprijzen
  • Dividenden, splitsingen en acties
Eigendom10 jaar
  • Top aandeelhouders
  • Handel met voorkennis
Beheer10 jaar
  • Leiderschapsteam
  • Raad van bestuur
Belangrijkste ontwikkelingen10 jaar
  • Bedrijfsaankondigingen

* Voorbeeld voor effecten uit de VS, voor niet-Amerikaanse effecten worden gelijkwaardige formulieren en bronnen gebruikt.

Tenzij anders vermeld zijn alle financiële gegevens gebaseerd op een jaarperiode, maar worden ze elk kwartaal bijgewerkt. Dit staat bekend als Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) of Last Twelve Month (LTM) gegevens. Meer informatie.

Analysemodel en Snowflake

Details van het analysemodel dat is gebruikt om dit rapport te genereren zijn beschikbaar op onze Github-pagina. We hebben ook handleidingen over hoe je onze rapporten kunt gebruiken en tutorials op YouTube.

Leer meer over het team van wereldklasse dat het Simply Wall St-analysemodel heeft ontworpen en gebouwd.

Industrie en sector

Onze industrie- en sectormetrics worden elke 6 uur berekend door Simply Wall St, details van ons proces zijn beschikbaar op Github.

Bronnen van analisten

Orlen S.A. wordt gevolgd door 20 analisten. 9 van deze analisten hebben de schattingen van de omzet of winst ingediend die zijn gebruikt als input voor ons rapport. Inzendingen van analisten worden de hele dag door bijgewerkt.

AnalistInstelling
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku