Molecular Partners AG (VTX:MOLN) Analysts Are Way More Bearish Than They Used To Be

The analysts covering Molecular Partners AG (VTX:MOLN) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of CHF20.15 reflecting a 38% rise in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Molecular Partners' six analysts is for revenues of CHF49m in 2020, which would reflect a substantial 142% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of CHF73m in 2020. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Molecular Partners, noting the pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Molecular Partners

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Molecular Partners' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow 142%, well above its historical decline of 14% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 21% next year. Not only are Molecular Partners' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for Molecular Partners this year. Analysts also expect revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Molecular Partners, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.

Of course, there's always more to the story. At least one of Molecular Partners' six analysts has provided estimates out to 2024, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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