Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Hindustan Foods Limited (NSE:HNDFDS) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Hindustan Foods Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2020, Hindustan Foods had ₹1.63b of debt, up from ₹630.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹312.7m, its net debt is less, at about ₹1.32b.
How Healthy Is Hindustan Foods's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Hindustan Foods had liabilities of ₹1.98b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹1.54b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹312.7m and ₹604.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹2.6b.
Given Hindustan Foods has a market capitalization of ₹18.1b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Hindustan Foods's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.3 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 4.0 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Notably, Hindustan Foods's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 139% on last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Hindustan Foods will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hindustan Foods saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Hindustan Foods's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its EBIT growth rate. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Hindustan Foods's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Hindustan Foods (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About NSEI:HNDFDS
Hindustan Foods
Engages in the business of contract manufacturing of fast moving consumer goods in India and internationally.
High growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.