Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Rana Sugars Limited (NSE:RANASUG) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Rana Sugars
What Is Rana Sugars's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Rana Sugars had debt of ₹3.07b at the end of March 2020, a reduction from ₹8.44b over a year. However, it does have ₹695.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹2.38b.
How Strong Is Rana Sugars's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Rana Sugars had liabilities of ₹7.14b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹1.51b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹695.5m and ₹2.08b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹5.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹872.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Rana Sugars would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While Rana Sugars's debt to EBITDA ratio (2.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.1, suggesting high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. The silver lining is that Rana Sugars grew its EBIT by 386% last year, which nourishing like the idealism of youth. If it can keep walking that path it will be in a position to shed its debt with relative ease. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Rana Sugars's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Rana Sugars actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Rana Sugars's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Rana Sugars is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Rana Sugars (including 1 which is is significant) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About NSEI:RANASUG
Rana Sugars
Engages in the manufacture of sugar, distillery, and co-generation of power in India.
Mediocre balance sheet low.