Celebrations may be in order for Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Moderna will make substantially more sales than they’d previously expected.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Moderna’s twelve analysts is for revenues of US$134m in 2020, which would reflect a sizeable 156% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$1.38. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$109m and losses of US$1.43 per share in 2020. We can see there’s definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year’s revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
The consensus price target rose 5.0% to US$92.44, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for this year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Moderna, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$134 and the most bearish at US$65.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Moderna’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to grow 156%, well above its historical decline of 57% a year over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 25% per year. Not only are Moderna’s revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Moderna’s prospects. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with analysts apparently feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year’s forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Moderna.
That’s a pretty serious upgrade, but shareholders might be even more pleased to know that forecasts expect Moderna to be able to reach break-even within the next few years. You can learn more about these forecasts, for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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