Moderna 향후 성장
Future 기준 점검 2/6
Moderna (는) 각각 연간 53.2% 및 23.8% 수익과 수익이 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다. EPS는 연간 53.2% 만큼 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다. 자기자본이익률은 3년 후 -18.7% 로 예상됩니다.
핵심 정보
53.2%
이익 성장률
53.23%
EPS 성장률
| Biotechs 이익 성장 | 25.2% |
| 매출 성장률 | 23.8% |
| 향후 자기자본이익률 | -18.69% |
| 애널리스트 커버리지 | Good |
| 마지막 업데이트 | 11 May 2026 |
최근 향후 성장 업데이트
Recent updates
MRNA: Future Upside Will Depend On Upcoming Flu Vaccine Authorization Outcome
Narrative Update on Moderna Analysts have collectively raised their Moderna price targets by low to mid single digit dollar amounts, citing updated models that reflect recent litigation settlements, FDA progress on the flu vaccine, and oncology pipeline developments. Together, these factors support a lower fair value estimate of $66.29, a slightly higher discount rate of 7.21%, adjusted revenue growth expectations of 52.59%, a profit margin of 4.12%, and a future P/E assumption of 107.40x.Moderna: mRNA Vaccine Is Only Viable In A COVID-Like Situation, Strong Sell
Summary Moderna (MRNA) faces major commercial setbacks as mRNA vaccines underperform against traditional competitors in post-pandemic markets. RSV and flu mRNA vaccines struggle with lower durability, higher side effects, and weak uptake, leading to program cuts and strategic pivots. Combination mRNA vaccines like mCOMBRIAX offer regulatory progress but commercial success remains uncertain amid persistent vaccine fatigue. Personalized cancer vaccines may leverage mRNA speed but face margin, scalability, and regulatory hurdles, limiting their financial upside for MRNA. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaMRNA: Litigation Tail And Uncertain Flu Path Will Limit Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted the implied fair value estimate for Moderna shares by about $7, citing a reset in litigation risk following the Arbutus and Genevant settlement and refreshed expectations for the flu and broader vaccine pipeline that flow through to higher modeled revenue growth and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has been active, with several firms revisiting their models after the Arbutus and Genevant settlement, the Q4 earnings update, and the FDA's decision to review the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.MRNA: Flu Review Uncertainty And Legal Tail Risk Will Constrain Upside
Analysts have nudged Moderna's average price target higher by $5, reflecting a mix of renewed confidence in the company's vaccine pipeline after the FDA's reconsideration of its flu shot application and reduced litigation overhang following recent settlement developments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Moderna clusters around two main themes for you to watch closely: valuation reset around the vaccine pipeline and lingering legal and execution risks tied to the COVID and flu franchises.MRNA: Litigation Deal And Flu Review Path Will Limit Future Upside
Analyst price targets for Moderna have generally shifted higher, with several firms moving into a $30 to $69 range as they factor in the recent Arbutus settlement, the FDA’s renewed review of the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and updated product and oncology pipeline assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna currently reflects a mixed but generally cautious stance, even as litigation and regulatory headlines have reduced some overhangs.MRNA: Litigation Settlement And Flu Setback Will Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed Moderna's implied fair value from $15.00 to $12.00 as they factor in a higher discount rate, more moderate profit margins and updated views on revenue growth following recent litigation settlements and regulatory updates. Analyst Commentary Street research around Moderna centers on two themes that matter for you as an investor: the clean-up of legal overhangs and how much confidence to place in the broader vaccine and oncology pipeline.MRNA: Future Upside Will Hinge On Upcoming Flu Vaccine Approval Decision
Our fair value estimate for Moderna has inched up by about $1.65 per share to $91.97 as analysts update their models around higher projected product sales, a more constructive FDA review path for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and refreshed views on the broader late stage pipeline including oncology. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has leaned more constructive around the updated regulatory path for flu vaccine mRNA-1010, the broader late stage pipeline, and recent quarterly disclosures.Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$40.90
As you might know, Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) just kicked off its latest annual results with some very strong...MRNA: Future Upside Will Depend On Vaccine Pipeline Execution Outcomes
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Moderna higher by about $3, reflecting updated views on long term revenue potential, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple following recent research on COVID demand, the broader vaccine pipeline and legal outcomes. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna highlights a mix of caution and growing optimism, with several bullish analysts adjusting their models after company updates, legal developments and new financing disclosures.Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 43%
Despite an already strong run, Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 43% in the...MRNA: Cancer Vaccine Risk And Vaccine Backlash Will Restrain Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for Moderna has increased by about $2 to $38.80, as analysts incorporate updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, modestly better profit margins, a marginally lower discount rate, and a slightly reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna shows a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern.MRNA: Late Stage Vaccine Outcomes Will Define Future Upside Potential
Narrative update We trim our analyst price target for Moderna from about US$121 to roughly US$87 as analysts factor in lower profit margin expectations, a higher discount rate, cautious views on COVID-related revenue visibility, and a more binary risk profile around key late stage vaccine data, even as some models reflect higher revenue growth assumptions and updated financing terms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna points to a mixed backdrop, with several firms reaffirming cautious stances while still recognizing specific areas where execution and funding choices could support long term value creation.MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Debt And Litigation
Analysts have modestly lifted their price targets on Moderna, with recent revisions such as $15 to $18, $16 to $17, and $32 to $30. These changes collectively reflect slightly improved conviction in the company’s long term revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and strengthened liquidity following new Ares financing, despite ongoing profitability and litigation risks.MRNA: Oncology Advances And Buyout Optionality Will Offset Debt And Litigation Risks
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Moderna to align with a slightly higher fair value estimate of about $36.75, citing incremental improvements in long term revenue growth and profitability assumptions supported by recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, revised 2026 to 2028 guidance, and Ares financing. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a cautious but incrementally more constructive stance toward Moderna, with several firms refining their models following Investor and Analyst Day presentations and the announcement of new financing.There's No Escaping Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Muted Revenues Despite A 28% Share Price Rise
Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last...MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Progress Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Litigation Risk
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Moderna to about $35.78 from $37.32 per share, reflecting slightly softer long term growth and valuation assumptions. This comes even as recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, new debt financing and evolving oncology data support a more stable cash outlook and gradual margin improvement.MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Advances Will Drive Renewed Optimism Despite Regulatory Shifts
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Moderna down from approximately $40.30 to $37.32. They cited the company’s updated revenue growth projections and cost outlook, despite improvements in profit margins and continued progress across its commercial and research pipelines.MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Renewed Optimism Amid Regulatory Uncertainties
Moderna's analyst price target was reduced from $18 to $15, as analysts pointed to lower US vaccination trends and ongoing regulatory uncertainties that are impacting the outlook for its vaccine franchises. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes have reflected both cautious and optimistic perspectives on Moderna's outlook.Oncology Advancements And Evolving Policy Will Shape Recovery Amid Regulatory Shifts
Moderna’s analyst price target has been revised downward from $44.25 to $40.30. Analysts cite lower projected revenue growth along with persistent regulatory and profitability challenges, which have been reflected in recent industry commentary.Pipeline Diversification And Regulatory Momentum Will Unlock Future Potential
Moderna’s consensus price target was held at $44.25 as analysts cited declining US vaccine demand, increased regulatory hurdles for flu/COVID combinations, delayed UK deliveries impacting 2025 guidance, and persistent uncertainty around mRNA vaccine approvals. Analyst Commentary Lowered US vaccination trends for both COVID and flu are reducing addressable market expectations for Moderna’s vaccines.Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 26%
Moderna, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last...MODERNA (MRNA): WALLSTREET THREW IT OUT - I’LL PICK IT UP AND CASH THE CHECK
Despite the defunding of US governmental research and health services, Moderna remains in a commanding fundamental position. The company that made its name during the COVID-19 pandemic developing andMore Downside For Moderna Before The Breakthrough
Summary Moderna's respiratory vaccine sales are not encouraging, and competition is strong, making it difficult to gain market share and sustain revenue. The product pipeline is promising but requires investor patience, with key vaccines in Phase 3 trials but regulatory approvals potentially years away. Financials are sound enough to support long term research, with a significant cash buffer, but oncology research faces regulatory and technical challenges. Shares are likely to go down before any uptrend (2-3 years horizon). Read the full article on Seeking AlphaFDA Shake-Up Rocks Moderna Stock As Regulatory Risks Mount (Downgrade)
Summary Moderna's stock dropped over 10% after the FDA's Dr. Peter Marks resigned, signaling potential increased regulatory scrutiny on vaccines. Moderna's financial health remains strong, with ~$9 billion in cash and investments, but the stock is down 65% since my August rating downgrade. Despite pipeline progress, regulatory uncertainty and intense competition from Pfizer and GSK pose significant risks to Moderna's revenue outlook. Given the negative public perception of mRNA technology and regulatory risks, I downgrade MRNA to "Hold" until more clarity emerges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Patent Litigation Win Masks Underperformance, Unlikely To Pay Out
Summary Moderna, Inc.'s stock surged 16% yesterday after a German court ruled Pfizer and BioNTech may have violated Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine patent, potentially leading to compensation. Despite the ruling, Pfizer and BioNTech will appeal, while previous court decisions have invalidated related patents, complicating Moderna's legal victory. MRNA's business struggles post-pandemic, with declining revenues and few new products, have made litigation a potentially critical revenue source, which I'd call a red flag. The ongoing legal battles resemble other prolonged patent disputes, highlighting the challenges in monetizing groundbreaking technologies like mRNA and CRISPR. If Moderna had released ten products since 2022, instead of one, it's unlikely yesterday's news would have moved its share price, but this reflects the new reality of messenger-RNA, a technology that hasn't lived up to the hype — yet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna, Inc.: Working Hard But Competition Is Working Harder
Summary MRNA's stock surged 4,211% during COVID-19 but has since plummeted to $31, reflecting a significant bubble and raising concerns about its future. Declining revenue and net income, driven by reduced COVID-19 vaccine demand and RSV market challenges, highlight MRNA's financial instability. MRNA's competitive landscape, particularly against Pfizer, and higher forward P/S ratio suggest the stock is overvalued and faces tough competition. Despite negative financials, technical analysis indicates potential support at $28-30, justifying a "hold" position rather than a "sell.". Read the full article on Seeking AlphaVaccine Expansion Plans Could Shape Future Despite Market Challenges And Legal Risks
Strategic product innovation in combining vaccines could enhance long-term revenue streams and international market positioning.Moderna: The Good News Isn't Enough
Summary I initially rated Moderna as a SELL in mid-December, and despite a recent rally, the stock remains volatile. The news flow has been great in January, which mostly caused a rally in the stock. I argue why I don't think anything has changed materially, reinforcing my SELL rating. Despite cost-cutting measures, I am concerned that reducing R&D will hurt Moderna's research capabilities, preferring cuts in SG&A instead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Can They Benefit From Bird Flu? (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Moderna's stock is down 36.63% due to poor COVID-19 vaccine sales and lack of promising alternatives, but bird flu presents asymmetric upside potential. The company's cost-cutting measures may hinder innovation, but rising COVID cases and bird flu risks could uniquely benefit Moderna if a pandemic occurs. Moderna's bird flu vaccine development, supported by a U.S. government grant, could be a game changer if the bird flu spreads significantly. With only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic, I believe Moderna is a hold, awaiting further developments on the bird flu's virality. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: 2025 Contrarian Play
Summary Moderna ends 2024 as one of the worst-performing Nasdaq-100 stocks, but it presents a contrarian play for 2025 due to vaccine catalysts. The stock is down to $40 with a $15 billion market cap, despite having $3+ billion in revenue and a promising pipeline. Moderna's spending issue is a concern, but the potential of its CMV and cancer vaccines could significantly boost sales and justify current R&D expenses. Investors should consider buying the beaten-down stock around $40, anticipating higher sales and multiple big approvals in the coming years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Cutting Costs Might Not Be Enough
Summary Moderna, a leader in mRNA medicine, developed one of the earliest COVID-19 vaccines, with Spikevax being its first commercial product. The company's mRNA platform enables the development of therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, and autoimmune diseases. MRNA has struggled in the post-COVID era, making its capacity to generate free cash flows doubtful. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna's Fresh Blow As RFK Heads To HHS - A Tough 2025 May Be In Store
Summary Moderna, Inc.'s stock has plummeted over 75% in 2024, driven by disappointing earnings, reduced revenue forecasts, and now the threat of a vaccine skeptic, RFK Jr.'s potential confirmation to lead HHS. Despite two commercialized vaccines and positive Phase 3 results for others, Moderna faces uncertainty in achieving profitability before 2028, with significant R&D expenses and competitive pressures. The private COVID-19 vaccine market is considered stable but limited, and the RSV vaccine faces competition from GSK and Pfizer, and likely restriction to a once-every 3-year dose. A potential acquisition by a Big Pharma like Merck could bring fresh R&D perspectives, but Moderna may need to consider further program cuts to achieve profitability in a shorter time-frame. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Assessing The Impact Of GSK's Patent Lawsuit
Summary GSK's lawsuit against Moderna over lipid nanoparticle technology could severely impact Moderna's revenue from Spikevax and mResvia, and delay their breakeven point. The lawsuit adds uncertainty to MRNA's already declining stock, increasing short-selling activity and potentially leading to prolonged negative headlines. Despite the legal risks, I plan to trade MRNA, looking for a reversion play if the ticker breaks its downtrend with elevated volume. I am lowering my MRNA conviction level from 3 to 2 out of 5 and moving it to the speculative “Bio Boom” portfolio. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Still Bullish View
Summary Moderna's stock has fallen due to the weak management revenue guidance, but I remain positive about its long-term potential. Key developments include the next-gen COVID-19 vaccine, the RSV vaccine, and promising pipeline drugs like the cytomegalovirus and cancer vaccines. Management's 2024 revenue guidance is conservative. I expect Moderna to outperform it. My fair valuation of Moderna stock was adjusted to $149. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna: Fresh Sell-Off On Cost Cutting Initiatives, Short-Term Outlook Troubling
Summary Moderna, Inc. plans to cut $1.1bn in costs by 2027, pausing and scrapping several R&D programs, leading to a pre-market stock drop of over 13%. Despite pledging 10 product approvals by 2027, falling COVID-19 vaccine sales and increased competition cast doubt on achieving a >25% CAGR. MRNA's financial outlook remains bleak, with expected losses through 2024 and speculative rather than concrete market opportunities for its late-stage pipeline assets. Short-to-medium term downside is likely, though long-term potential remains if new vaccines, like a COVID/flu combo or CMV, succeed. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaModerna's Vaccine Progress Undermined By RSV Market Contraction (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Moderna, Inc.'s combination flu and COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1083, showed strong Phase 3 results in adults over 50. Pfizer/BioNTech's combination vaccine faced setbacks, giving Moderna a potential advantage in the market. The market for Moderna's RSV vaccine may be limited due to updated CDC recommendations. Moderna's oncology pipeline, including mRNA-4157/V940, shows promise but remains in the early stages. Despite short-term challenges, Moderna's combination vaccine could lead to long-term market outperformance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha이익 및 매출 성장 예측
| 날짜 | 매출 | 이익 | 자유현금흐름 | 영업현금흐름 | 평균 애널리스트 수 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 3,213 | -1,148 | -1,279 | -1,101 | 17 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2,529 | -1,839 | -1,482 | -1,449 | 20 |
| 12/31/2026 | 2,086 | -3,409 | -3,099 | -2,980 | 21 |
| 3/31/2026 | 2,225 | -3,194 | -1,603 | -1,466 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,944 | -2,822 | -2,075 | -1,873 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,232 | -3,116 | -2,663 | -1,978 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,078 | -2,903 | -3,500 | -2,697 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,177 | -3,357 | -4,034 | -3,052 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 3,236 | -3,561 | -4,055 | -3,004 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 5,081 | -2,224 | -3,956 | -3,207 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 5,050 | -5,867 | -3,979 | -3,241 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 5,153 | -5,968 | -3,672 | -2,882 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 6,848 | -4,714 | -3,825 | -3,118 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 9,121 | -3,466 | -2,657 | -2,078 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 10,654 | 1,207 | -754 | -226 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 15,059 | 4,784 | 612 | 993 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 19,263 | 8,362 | 4,581 | 4,981 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 21,390 | 11,765 | 6,201 | 6,629 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 22,995 | 14,055 | 9,215 | 9,653 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 22,600 | 14,638 | 13,031 | 13,412 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 18,471 | 12,202 | 13,336 | 13,620 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 11,831 | 7,061 | 11,386 | 11,574 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 7,019 | 3,495 | 9,083 | 9,191 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,732 | 598 | 5,007 | 5,104 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 803 | -747 | 1,959 | 2,027 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 246 | -597 | 613 | 664 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 106 | -488 | -374 | -336 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 52 | -505 | -451 | -421 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 60 | -514 | N/A | -459 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 82 | -535 | N/A | -451 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 106 | -499 | N/A | -424 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 122 | -459 | N/A | -364 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 135 | -402 | N/A | -331 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 192 | -299 | N/A | -343 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 192 | -280 | N/A | -305 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 199 | -266 | N/A | -350 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 206 | -270 | N/A | -331 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 108 | -230 | N/A | 67 | N/A |
애널리스트 향후 성장 전망
수입 대 저축률: MRNA 향후 3년 동안 수익성이 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.
수익 vs 시장: MRNA 향후 3년 동안 수익성이 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 수익: MRNA 향후 3년 동안 수익성이 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.
수익 대 시장: MRNA 의 수익(연간 23.8%)이 US 시장(연간 11.7%)보다 빠르게 성장할 것으로 예상됩니다.
고성장 매출: MRNA 의 수익(연간 23.8%)은 연간 20%보다 빠르게 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
주당순이익 성장 예측
향후 자기자본이익률
미래 ROE: MRNA는 3년 뒤에도 수익성이 없을 것으로 전망됩니다.
성장 기업 찾아보기
기업 분석 및 재무 데이터 상태
| 데이터 | 최종 업데이트 (UTC 시간) |
|---|---|
| 기업 분석 | 2026/05/18 05:09 |
| 종가 | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| 수익 | 2026/03/31 |
| 연간 수익 | 2025/12/31 |
데이터 소스
당사의 기업 분석에 사용되는 데이터는 S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC에서 제공됩니다. 아래 데이터는 이 보고서를 생성하기 위해 분석 모델에서 사용됩니다. 데이터는 정규화되므로 소스가 제공된 후 지연이 발생할 수 있습니다.
| 패키지 | 데이터 | 기간 | 미국 소스 예시 * |
|---|---|---|---|
| 기업 재무제표 | 10년 |
| |
| 분석가 컨센서스 추정치 | +3년 |
|
|
| 시장 가격 | 30년 |
| |
| 지분 구조 | 10년 |
| |
| 경영진 | 10년 |
| |
| 주요 개발 | 10년 |
|
* 미국 증권에 대한 예시이며, 비(非)미국 증권에는 해당 국가의 규제 서식 및 자료원을 사용합니다.
별도로 명시되지 않는 한 모든 재무 데이터는 연간 기간을 기준으로 하지만 분기별로 업데이트됩니다. 이를 TTM(최근 12개월) 또는 LTM(지난 12개월) 데이터라고 합니다. 자세히 알아보기.
분석 모델 및 스노우플레이크
이 보고서를 생성하는 데 사용된 분석 모델에 대한 자세한 내용은 당사의 Github 페이지에서 확인하실 수 있습니다. 또한 보고서 활용 방법에 대한 가이드와 YouTube 튜토리얼도 제공합니다.
Simply Wall St 분석 모델을 설계하고 구축한 세계적 수준의 팀에 대해 알아보세요.
산업 및 섹터 지표
산업 및 섹터 지표는 Simply Wall St가 6시간마다 계산하며, 프로세스에 대한 자세한 내용은 Github에서 확인할 수 있습니다.
분석가 소스
Moderna, Inc.는 44명의 분석가가 다루고 있습니다. 이 중 21명의 분석가가 우리 보고서에 입력 데이터로 사용되는 매출 또는 수익 추정치를 제출했습니다. 분석가의 제출 자료는 하루 종일 업데이트됩니다.
| 분석가 | 기관 |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Huidong Wang | Barclays |
| Eliana Merle | Barclays |