Seeking Alpha • Aug 23
Final Boarding Call For Boeing Supplier AerSale
AerSale is ready for takeoff - this really is the final call.
The existing business is debt free, profitable, growing and undervalued.
AerSale will soon launch a new product, AerAware, which is probably worth more than the entire rest of the business is worth today.
N30AS – The latest AerAware test plane. (ASLE)
Overview
Author
AerSale is an aviation aftermarket products and services company. They optimize the value of mid-technology aircraft made by Boeing (BA) and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) (OTCPK:EADSY) and engines made by GE (GE), Rolls Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) (OTCPK:RYCEF) (OTC:RLLCF) and Raytheon (RTX). Today, their customer mix is mainly private sector, though they have been growing their government customer base.
Their market segment is underserved, inefficient, and fragmented. It's a regulated industry. Complex FAA regulations serve as a steep barrier to entry for new entrants without extensive experience with the regulators.
This article is an update to an earlier write-up of the company on Seeking Alpha - AerSale Stock: A Boeing Vendor Worth $40.
The company continues to meet or exceed expectations:
Author
The company is signaling they will imminently launch a transformational product – AerAware. This project suffered delays, primarily due to COVID. But these have passed and we’re now back on track.
They will increase or beat guidance
Last year, management comically low-balled their earnings guidance, handily meeting their full-year guidance in the third quarter before finally raising their full-year guidance. This year, they're doing it again.
AerSale’s current 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $80-$90 million. They already have printed $71 million during the first half of the year ($29.9 million in Q1 and $41.1 million in Q2). So to meet guidance, they only need to earn a total $9-$19 million over the next two quarters. Yet again, they’re on track to exceed their full-year guidance within the third (current) quarter.
During the Q2 earnings call, management sensed they had a credibility issue with their guidance and suggested reduced flight equipment sales in H2 were anticipated:
The implied reduction in performance in the second half as compared to the first half reflects an earlier than anticipated sale of our 747 400 freighter at the end of the second quarter, which was planned for the third quarter. Also deferral of two 757 aircraft to the 2023 third-party P2F conversion program in order to benefit from higher margin returns and consideration of the ongoing risks in the global economy.
That’s nonsense. For this current quarter, AerSale already has got two aircraft sales in the bag and another on the way (vs. three in total for Q2).
N260AS 757-200 P2F sold to Cargojet, delivered in July
N186AN 757-200 P2F sold to YTO Cargo, delivered in July
N188AN 757-200 P2F being converted at GYR, due soon
From an accounting / reported earnings point of view, the Goodyear P2F will be a particularly good one because AerSale converted this freighter themselves and they defer recognizing revenue and associated margin for the work performed until the conversion is completed and the aircraft is sold.
There also are a number of other 757s currently undergoing P2F conversion in China which should be completed and sold before the end of the year – N203UW, N204UW, N205UW and N176AA.
Valens Research provides research to institutional clients. One of the offerings involves scanning earnings calls for verbal cues that management teams are lying. It's based on technology developed by the Israeli military. Valens analyzed the last two ASLE calls, particularly around the AerAware product. Regarding Flight Equipment Sales, Valens had this to say:
Management was highly confident about their pipeline of flight equipment sales, including sales that were completed and in the pipeline, and how strong the opportunities they're seeing in the space are.
In other words, if management were trying to convince an Israeli counterespionage agent that they weren’t confident about easily beating their full-year earnings guidance, that Israeli agent would probably call BS on management.
New product launch – AerAware
ASLE
AerAware is a helmet mounted Enhanced Flight Vision System (EFVS) which AerSale is in the final stage of certifying with the FAA. This is proven state-of-the-art military technology. It’s the same platform as is deployed in the Joint Strike Fighter F-35. Nothing like it exists for commercial aircraft today.
AerSale relied upon Universal/Elbit (ESLT) to conduct a software validation of the system. COVID/staffing/resourcing issues at Elbit delayed this validation by about a year and there was little AerSale could do about it. This roadblock has now passed and the validation is complete. Some quotes from the Q2 earnings call:
Regarding AerAware, I'm pleased to announce that together with our partner Universal Avionics, a Elbit Systems subsidiary, we've completed the software validation process. This represents more than two years of engineering and development effort. And we're very excited to reach this important milestone. As we're nearing the commercialization phase of AerAware, we've stepped up our marketing efforts with airline operators and have received favorable feedback across the board. We've been hearing positive reviews about the system following our many demonstration flights, with pilots frequently noting that AerAware's advanced technology is decades ahead of anything existing today...
As we believe final AerAware certification will be granted by the FAA in the near term, we are investing in our ability to begin delivering AerAware to our prospective customers. To that end, in July, we ordered $33 million of the AerAware components from Elbit Systems' subsidiary Universal Avionics, so that we can begin installations at the earliest time...
I can't overstate how big a milestone we finished with our AerAware product. Finishing two years’ worth of engineering development and software validation is a big deal. The fact that we placed an order for $33 million worth of equipment, ought to give all of you a good idea how confident we are that we're going to have this system certified in the short run, and that we're going to have multiple number of customers that will be waiting to take that equipment. So we're in also -- we feel very optimistic and confident about our position vis-à-vis AerAware.