AerSale Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$83m missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.01 fell short of forecasts by 58%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for AerSale

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AerSale from three analysts is for revenues of US$406.3m in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 5,387% to US$0.43. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$398.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.59 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$7.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AerSale analyst has a price target of US$8.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AerSale is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting AerSale's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AerSale is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AerSale analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with AerSale .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.