AerSale Corporation Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 13% to US$6.16. It was a pretty bad result overall, with revenues coming in 26% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, the statutory profit the analysts had been forecasting evaporated, turning into a loss of US$0.10 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AerSale's twin analysts is for revenues of US$350.0m in 2025. This reflects a solid 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with AerSale forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.34 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$380.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.33 in 2025. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

View our latest analysis for AerSale

The analysts have cut their price target 6.3% to US$7.50per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the expected improvement in earnings.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that AerSale's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AerSale is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards AerSale following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AerSale's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of AerSale's balance sheet, and whether we think AerSale is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.