AerSale Corporation Just Beat EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a pretty great week for AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) shareholders, with its shares surging 18% to US$8.24 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues were US$345m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.11, an impressive 22% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for AerSale

Following the latest results, AerSale's two analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$387.2m in 2025. This would be a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 196% to US$0.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$386.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.28 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 6.7% to US$8.00.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that AerSale's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.8% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AerSale to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards AerSale following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for AerSale going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether AerSale is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.