Li Auto Inc.

NasdaqGS:LI 株式レポート

時価総額：US$19.1b

Li Auto 将来の成長

Future 基準チェック /46

Li Auto利益と収益がそれぞれ年間37.6%と12.2%増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 増加すると予想されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に10.5% 44.3%なると予測されています。

主要情報

37.6%

収益成長率

44.28%

EPS成長率

Auto 収益成長37.1%
収益成長率12.2%
将来の株主資本利益率10.54%
アナリストカバレッジ

Good

最終更新日04 May 2026

今後の成長に関する最新情報

Recent updates

ナラティブ更新 • May 02

LI: Future Performance Will Face Margin Pressure From Weaker Sectorwide Demand

Li Auto's updated analyst price target moves modestly higher, with a fair value estimate shifting from about $14.05 to $14.99 as analysts factor in reduced revenue growth expectations, thinner profit margins, a slightly lower discount rate, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple, following a mix of recent downgrades, target cuts, and one upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Li Auto has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts flagging execution and profitability risks that they see as limiting near term upside relative to prior expectations.
ナラティブ更新 • Apr 18

LI: Cost Discipline And Model Mix Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential

Li Auto's analyst price targets have edged lower, with cuts such as Morgan Stanley's reduction, Goldman's move to $19, and JPMorgan's revised $15.50 target contributing to a modest fair value reset as analysts factor in softer volume expectations, pressure on vehicle margins, and a higher mix of lower margin models. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Li Auto has shifted toward a more cautious tone, with several high profile firms re-basing expectations on volumes and margins.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 08

Li Auto: Should We Be Skeptical Amid Broader Sector Recovery?

Summary Li Auto has had more experience than expected in 2025, due to intensified rivalry and pullbacks on subsidies. Other than SUV rivalry, the company does have to manage its over-reliance on EREVs, where BEVs are catching up with improving battery technologies. I think LI's product-market fit and technological competitiveness are both questioned—which could make management's plan of reviving sales more challenging than expected. My rating for Li Auto is a 'Hold,' being cautiously optimistic while awaiting concrete data from 1Q26 to see how they are actually driving sales. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブ更新 • Apr 04

LI: Overseas Execution And Mix Management Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential

Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been reduced by about $3.70, with analysts pointing to softer 2026 volume and margin expectations, a higher mix of lower margin models, and recent downgrades that reflect concerns about delivery trends and profit pressure. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed but still constructive picture around Li Auto, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings in response to updated 2026 guidance and margin assumptions.
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 21

LI: Shares Will Recover As Execution Improves And New Model Cycle Progresses

Li Auto's updated analyst price target reflects a reduced fair value estimate to $22.16, as analysts factor in softer projected revenue growth, thinner profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E following a series of downgrades and tempered outlooks on deliveries and vehicle economics. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto clusters around concerns on execution and profitability, with pockets of cautious optimism on valuation.
ナラティブ更新 • Mar 06

LI: Future Performance Will Face Tougher Deliveries And Sectorwide Demand Headwinds

Analysts have increased their Li Auto fair value estimate slightly to about $14.05 per share. This modest change reflects small adjustments to assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E after recent price target cuts and mixed delivery and outlook commentary across Chinese automakers.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 19

LI: Future Performance Will Face Rising Downgrade Risk And Mixed Execution

Li Auto's updated analyst price target has been trimmed by about $0.95 as analysts factor in recent downgrades, reduced fair value estimates, a slightly higher discount rate, and adjusted assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Li Auto has tilted more cautious, with several firms cutting price targets and a few moving to outright downgrades.
ナラティブ更新 • Feb 05

LI: Overseas Execution Will Drive Future Re Rating Potential

Narrative Update on Li Auto Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Li Auto, with our fair value estimate moving from about US$39.04 to US$35.43. They cited more conservative assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, partially offset by a higher expected future P/E multiple and recent target cuts and a downgrade from several firms.
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 22

LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Execution With Global Expansion Uncertainty

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Li Auto to about $15 from roughly $17, reflecting slightly higher assumed discount rates, modest adjustments to long term revenue growth and profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following recent price target cuts, mixed quarterly results, and cautious outlooks in Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Li Auto shows a mixed backdrop, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets and flagging execution and growth risks, even as one firm modestly raised its target and maintains a Neutral stance.
ナラティブ更新 • Jan 08

LI: Future Performance Will Balance Mixed Outlook With Global Expansion Uncertainty

Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their Li Auto price targets, with one moving to US$25 and another initiating at US$19. This reflects views that recent mixed results, a weaker near term outlook and questions around the global expansion plan warrant more cautious assumptions on growth, margins and future P/E multiples.
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 24

LI: Future Performance Will Balance Domestic EV Pressures And Overseas Expansion Uncertainty

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Li Auto to $17, down from about $19.50. They cite increased competitive and policy risks in China as well as uncertainty around the company’s global expansion strategy.
ナラティブ更新 • Dec 10

LI: Shares Will Recover As Global Expansion Progress Supports Long Term Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Li Auto by roughly $4 per share to about $19. They cite a slightly higher discount rate and lower future valuation multiples, despite stronger long term revenue growth and margin expectations, amid concerns over the company’s uncertain global expansion strategy and intense competition in China’s auto market.
ナラティブ更新 • Nov 26

LI: Shares Will Recover As New Model Launch Supports Sales Momentum

The analyst price target for Li Auto has been revised downward from $28.70 to $28.09. This revision reflects analysts' more cautious revenue growth expectations as well as increased competitive and policy risks in China's electric vehicle market.
ナラティブ更新 • Nov 10

LI: Shares Will Rebound As Competitive Pressures Are Met With New Releases

Li Auto's average analyst price target has edged down slightly to just under $28.70. Analysts point to increased competitive pressures and a reduced growth outlook following recent earnings reports.
ナラティブ更新 • Oct 27

Rising Competition And Product Launches Will Shape Electric Vehicle Sector Dynamics

Li Auto's analyst price target has been modestly raised to $28.90, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment amid recent downgrades on competitive and growth concerns. However, the upgrade also ties to an improved outlook related to potential product launches and sector positioning.
ナラティブ更新 • Oct 13

Battery Electric Vehicles And Intelligent Driving Will Unlock Markets

Li Auto's analyst price target has decreased slightly from approximately $29.30 to $28.87 per share. This adjustment reflects a cautious outlook amid tempered growth expectations and rising competitive pressures, according to recent analyst commentary.
ナラティブ更新 • Aug 27

New BEVs And Autonomous Driving To Expand NEV Market Presence

Li Auto's consensus price target has been revised downward to $32.84 due to intensifying competition in China's premium EV market, expected Q2 underperformance, and concerns over demand and margin pressure, reflecting a more cautious fair value outlook. Analyst Commentary Rising competitive pressures in the premium electric SUV and battery electric vehicle markets, with direct competition from established best-sellers like Tesla Model Y and Xiaomi YU7.
分析記事 • Aug 05

Does Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...
分析記事 • May 17

Investors Appear Satisfied With Li Auto Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LI) Prospects As Shares Rocket 27%

Li Auto Inc. ( NASDAQ:LI ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 17

Li Auto's Selloff Triggers Excellent Buying Opportunity - Reiterate Buy

Summary The macro/geopolitical uncertainties have triggered Li Auto's much needed selloff, as the bulls continue to defend the $22s floor since September 2024. This is especially since the automaker has reported growing deliveries, still healthy profit margins, and richer balance sheet, despite the higher expenses on a YoY basis. With LI expected to launch BEVs while entering numerous international markets in 2025, we may see 2025/2026 bring forth renewed growth opportunities beyond the domestic market. Despite the US' raised tariffs on China to 125%, we maintain our conjecture that it is likely to pose minimal headwinds to China's automotive industry, LI included. Combined with the moderating short interest volume from the 2024 heights and the declining CBOE Volatility Index, it appears that the worst of the selloff may already be here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 16

Li Auto Is Improving Safety With Self-Driving Tech

Summary Li Auto's autonomous driving systems, including Li AD Max and Pro, significantly enhance vehicle safety. The company's high volume and rapid tech evolution, powered by Nvidia's DRIVE Thor and Orin systems, help position them as a leader in vehicle safety. Despite revenue and operating income fluctuations, Li Auto's substantial R&D investments in AI and self-driving tech ensure they will continue to be a leader in terms of making roads safer. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 04

Li Auto: Time To Be Greedy

Summary Li Auto's delivery results for February disappointed as the company only delivered 26,263 electric vehicles, 12% less than in the previous month. Seasonal effects are responsible for the drop-off in deliveries, which should normalize again in March. I maintain a strong buy rating for Li Auto due to its profitability, competitive price-to-revenue ratio, and superior vehicle margins compared to NIO and XPeng. Shares of Li Auto currently trade 33% below the firm's longer term, 3-year average price-to-revenue ratio and have an attractive risk profile. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 09

Li Auto: A Strong Buy Due To MEGA And AI

Summary Li Auto is a highly profitable Chinese EV manufacturer with substantial growth potential, making it a strong competitor to Tesla and BYD. The company's valuation is currently very low, trading below one times sales, making it an attractive investment opportunity. Li Auto's innovative AI and robotics integration, along with its impressive lineup of family-friendly EVs, position it for future success. Despite inherent risks associated with Chinese stocks, Li Auto's solid financials and market position suggest a significant upside in the coming years. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 31

Li Auto: Consistent Performer And Undervalued

Summary Li Auto, a Beijing-based company founded in 2015 by Xiang Li, focuses on REEV SUVs, offering extended range and leading sales in China. Xiang Li's unique approach contrasts with NIO's, opting for SUV models after the LSEV plan failed due to regulatory issues. Li Auto's financials show strong revenue growth, solid margins, and liquidity, positioning it well for future expansion and benefiting from China's stimulus. Despite risks like the Chinese market and VIE structure, Li Auto's valuation through discounted cash flows and multiples suggests it could be a good investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 20

Li Auto Finally Nears Our Buy Zone, Great 2025 Prospects

Summary LI has retraced as expected, with the bulls seemingly defending the $22s as the new support level. Much of the tailwinds are naturally attributed to the double beat FQ3'24 performance, excellent October 2024/ YTD deliveries, and promising FQ4'24 guidance. This is significantly aided by LI's richer profit margins and growing net cash on balance sheet, allowing the automaker to sustainably fund its growth opportunities domestically/ internationally. The management's 2025 BEV launch and cautious international approaches have been highly prudent, since it allows the automaker to remain profitable compared to its cash burning peers. Even so, we expect LI to continue trading sideways, before sentiments surrounding Chinese EVs improve and the management delivers robust international growth numbers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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新しいナラティブ • Nov 10

Critical Expansion And AI Innovation Propel Premium NEV Market Growth

Strategic expansion of sales network and charging infrastructure in China is expected to bolster market share and future revenue growth.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 29

Li Auto: H2 2024 May Bring Forth Improved Numbers, Thanks To Government Stimulus

Summary The numerous government stimulus has already triggered improved sentiments surrounding Chinese ADRs, significantly aided by the raised EV subsidies. These have contributed to LI's robust YTD deliveries, along with the promising FQ3'24 guidance. Thanks to the completion of its production capacity ramp up and cost efficiency strategies, we may see H2'24 bring forth improved bottom-lines as well. And this is why we believe that LI at FWD P/E non-GAAP valuations of 22.45x is not overly expensive, attributed to the extremely cheap PEG non-GAAP ratio of 0.30x. This is on top of the excellent upside potential of +57% to our long-term price target of $40.50, despite the recent rally. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 08

Li Auto: Strong EV Choice, Low Price

Summary Li Auto reported strong Q2 earnings with 11% Y/Y revenue growth and a 26% increase in delivery volume. Li Auto maintains the highest vehicle margins among Chinese EV start-ups, with Q2 vehicle margins of 18.7%, significantly outperforming NIO and XPeng. Li Auto's valuation remains low despite its profitability, highest margins, and robust delivery outlook, suggesting significant revaluation potential. Margin pressure is a risk, but Li Auto's profitability and strong growth outlook make it a compelling investment compared to its Chinese EV rivals. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 29

Li Auto: From Setback To Comeback (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Li Auto's Q2 earnings show recovery with a 1.5% operating profit and increased inventory turnover, despite earlier setbacks and a 50% stock price drop. The company regained its top spot in Chinese new energy SUV sales, surpassing Tesla in unit sales in July 2024. Despite competition from AITO, BYD, and Tesla, Li's strong execution, autonomous driving tech, and market position justify upgrading the rating to strong buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 19

Expecting Significant Wealth Creation From Li Stock In The Long Term

Summary Initiating coverage on Li Auto with a "Buy" rating, an undervalued stock with the potential to navigate challenges in the EV industry. Li stock plunged due to revised delivery guidance, margin compression, and negative sentiments for Chinese stocks, but was oversold and poised for recovery. A strong balance sheet with a cash buffer of $13.7 billion and positive operating cash flows since 2020. Investment in autonomous driving technology is likely to ensure that Li stays ahead of the curve. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 02

Li Auto: Weakening Financials Encourage Caution

Summary Li Auto is among the worst performing big EV stocks year to date. But with its robust delivery data impressing investors recently, is it due for a pick up now? There are certainly positives to it, besides strong recent deliveries. These include continued healthy growth in China's EV market and insulation from tariff increases by the US and EU. But the challenges are too big to ignore. It missed revenue targets in Q1 2024 and growth is seen falling sharply in Q2, which can affect profits. As a result, it's hard to make a Buy case for Li Auto right now when its market multiples aren't bad at all. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 18

Li Auto Lost The Price War - More Pain Ahead

Summary Li Auto appears to be retesting its 3Y support levels of $18s and on its way to retest the $15s floor, thanks to the worsening sentiments surrounding Chinese automakers. With the US/ EU government imposing hefty tariffs and Chinese automakers flooding the Middle East market, it seems that there are minimal growth drivers ahead. LI already reported negative FQ1'24 operating margins, with FQ2'24 likely to be worse as the management embarked on price cuts to boost volume growth. While the automaker appears to be well capitalized in FQ1'24, investors may want to temper their intermediate term expectations, with things potentially becoming worse before it gets better. As a result, LI is likely to remain a swing trade vehicle for investors with higher risk tolerance in the intermediate term, assuming that current floors hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 28

Li Auto: Deep Value For EV Investors

Summary Li Auto missed Q1 expectations on the bottom and top line last week. Vehicle margins declined Q/Q, but the EV company remained profitable. Li Auto continued to lead the start-up sector in terms of vehicle and gross margins. The EV maker offers the best value in the Chinese electric vehicle start-up group with leading delivery volumes and margins/profitability. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

業績と収益の成長予測

NasdaqGS:LI - アナリストの将来予測と過去の財務データ ( )CNY Millions
日付収益収益フリー・キャッシュフロー営業活動によるキャッシュ平均アナリスト数
12/31/2028170,7898,10012,62616,61625
12/31/2027154,6636,4199,01316,01928
12/31/2026127,9821,80510,05012,50131
12/31/2025112,3131,124-12,817-8,611N/A
9/30/2025127,8114,641-9,681-3,452N/A
6/30/2025143,3208,0808,73914,968N/A
3/31/2025144,7538,0909,84517,575N/A
12/31/2024144,4608,0328,20315,933N/A
9/30/2024141,91810,16718,75524,547N/A
6/30/2024133,72410,17620,95528,029N/A
3/31/2024130,69811,36733,06439,571N/A
12/31/2023123,85111,70444,18650,694N/A
9/30/202399,7696,30332,80638,325N/A
6/30/202374,4321,83917,62223,310N/A
3/31/202354,512-1,0729,53113,327N/A
12/31/202245,287-2,0122,2527,380N/A
9/30/202238,257-1,9741,1746,292N/A
6/30/202236,690-3554,2978,970N/A
3/31/202232,997284,8289,248N/A
12/31/202127,010-3214,8968,340N/A
9/30/202120,536-5094,3166,325N/A
6/30/202115,272-8093,9015,085N/A
3/31/202112,180-9183,2204,129N/A
12/31/20209,457-8062,4653,140N/A
9/30/20205,594-1,982168867N/A
3/31/20201,136-3,034-2,319-1,463N/A
12/31/2019284-3,261-2,747-1,794N/A
9/30/2019N/A-2,702N/A-1,680N/A

アナリストによる今後の成長予測

収入対貯蓄率: LIの予測収益成長率 (年間37.6% ) は 貯蓄率 ( 3.5% ) を上回っています。

収益対市場: LIの収益 ( 37.6% ) はUS市場 ( 16.6% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高成長収益: LIの収益は今後 3 年間で 大幅に 増加すると予想されています。

収益対市場: LIの収益 ( 12.2% ) US市場 ( 11.5% ) よりも速いペースで成長すると予測されています。

高い収益成長: LIの収益 ( 12.2% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。

一株当たり利益成長率予想

将来の株主資本利益率

将来のROE: LIの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 10.5 %)。

成長企業の発掘

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

企業分析と財務データの現状

データ最終更新日（UTC時間）
企業分析2026/05/07 17:01
終値2026/05/07 00:00
収益2025/12/31
年間収益2025/12/31

データソース

企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。

パッケージデータタイムフレーム米国ソース例
会社財務10年
  • 損益計算書
  • キャッシュ・フロー計算書
  • 貸借対照表
アナリストのコンセンサス予想+プラス3年
  • 予想財務
  • アナリストの目標株価
市場価格30年
  • 株価
  • 配当、分割、措置
所有権10年
  • トップ株主
  • インサイダー取引
マネジメント10年
  • リーダーシップ・チーム
  • 取締役会
主な進展10年
  • 会社からのお知らせ

* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。

特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。

分析モデルとスノーフレーク

本レポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は当社のGithubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの使用方法に関するガイドやYoutubeのチュートリアルも掲載しています。

シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した世界トップクラスのチームについてご紹介します。

業界およびセクターの指標

私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。

アナリスト筋

Li Auto Inc. 31 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。50

アナリスト機関
Tianli WenAletheia Analyst Network Limited
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Yuet LeeBernstein