Li Auto's analyst price target has been modestly raised to $28.90, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment amid recent downgrades on competitive and growth concerns. However, the upgrade also ties to an improved outlook related to potential product launches and sector positioning.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports regarding Li Auto have shown a sharp division in sentiment, with some optimistic on the company’s long-term positioning and product potential, while others point to industry headwinds and execution risks. The following summarizes the key bullish and bearish arguments made by street research over the past weeks.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts have highlighted Li Auto's upcoming product launches as an important lever for sales and margin growth. They note that a successful i6 launch could drive meaningful upside.
• Some believe the company remains well positioned in its segment, especially if it can capitalize on sector momentum and consumer interest in premium electric vehicles.
• Upward price target revisions reflect continued faith in management's ability to navigate a competitive landscape and execute on growth initiatives.

Bearish Takeaways

• Several bearish analysts have downgraded ratings and lowered price targets following disappointment over Q2 results and a "soft" outlook for Q3 deliveries.
• There is caution regarding rising competitive pressures within the premium electric SUV and broader battery electric vehicle markets. These pressures could limit Li Auto’s ability to capture incremental share.
• Growth projections and earnings estimates have been cut, with some expecting government subsidy reductions to slow China's passenger vehicle demand earlier than previously assumed.
• Analysts are mindful of margin pressures, particularly because new battery electric models are potentially less profitable in the near term. This raises execution risk regarding the company’s shift in product mix.

What's in the News

• Li Auto officially launched the Li i6, a five-seat battery electric SUV. Deliveries are set to begin on September 27, 2025. The vehicle is priced at RMB249,800 for the standard configuration. (Key Developments)
• XPeng’s CEO announced plans to launch the mass-market Mona brand overseas next year, highlighting rising international competition in the electric vehicle market. (CNBC)
• Li Auto was removed from both the S&P International 700 and S&P Global 1200 indices, reflecting recent market changes. (Key Developments)
• Li Auto provided earnings guidance for Q3 2025, expecting vehicle deliveries between 90,000 and 95,000 units and total revenues between RMB 24.8 to 26.2 billion. Both figures represent significant year-over-year declines. (Key Developments)
• Recent product innovation included the launch of the Li i8, a six-seat battery electric family SUV with advanced proprietary technologies in electric drive and battery systems. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased slightly, moving from $28.87 to $28.90 per share.
• Discount Rate has edged down marginally, from 12.11% to 12.09%.
• Revenue Growth expectations remain unchanged at approximately 17.10% year-over-year.
• Net Profit Margin projections are essentially flat at 6.51%.
• Future P/E Ratio has decreased marginally, from 20.22x to 20.19x.