Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.18%Li Auto's consensus price target has been revised downward to $32.84 due to intensifying competition in China's premium EV market, expected Q2 underperformance, and concerns over demand and margin pressure, reflecting a more cautious fair value outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Rising competitive pressures in the premium electric SUV and battery electric vehicle markets, with direct competition from established best-sellers like Tesla Model Y and Xiaomi YU7.
- Li Auto is expected to miss lagging Q2 volume and revenue estimates, and Q3 consensus targets appear overly optimistic.
- Growing concerns about a slowdown in China's passenger vehicle demand, possibly accelerated by the anticipated expiry of government subsidies by the end of 2025.
- Margin dilution concerns associated with Li Auto's efforts in the battery electric vehicle segment.
- The need for Li Auto management to clarify and reset the company's growth strategy ahead of key new product launches, such as the i6 in September.
What's in the News
- Li Auto officially launched the Li i8, a six-seat battery electric SUV featuring an in-house developed electric drive system, high-performance battery packs with rapid charging, advanced assisted driving systems, and personalized user experiences.
- The company downgraded its Q2 2025 delivery outlook to approximately 108,000 vehicles (from 123,000–128,000) due to a temporary sales system upgrade, but expressed confidence in completing its organizational upgrade before the Li i8 launch.
- Li Auto previously guided Q2 2025 vehicle deliveries of 123,000–128,000 and revenues of RMB 32.5–33.8 billion, representing solid year-over-year growth.
- Li Auto and certain executives are defendants in a consolidated U.S. securities class action lawsuit alleging misstatements and omissions in SEC filings; the case remains in its preliminary stage.
- A board meeting is set to consider and approve unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Li Auto
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $33.57 to $32.84.
- The Future P/E for Li Auto has significantly fallen from 20.84x to 2.82x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Li Auto remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 20.0% per annum to 19.9% per annum.
Disclaimer
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