Update shared on 10 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.67%Li Auto's average analyst price target has edged down slightly to just under $28.70. Analysts point to increased competitive pressures and a reduced growth outlook following recent earnings reports.
Analyst Commentary
Street research on Li Auto reveals a divided outlook among analysts, reflecting the company's recent performance and evolving competitive dynamics.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see potential upside with recent upgrades and price targets above the current average. They cite opportunities ahead of the i6 model launch.
- Some bullish commentary highlights ongoing innovation and product launches that could support a rebound in sales and improve investor sentiment.
- Upgrades indicate confidence in Li Auto's ability to navigate near-term challenges and regain positive momentum, provided that execution meets expectations.
- Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets, reflecting increased competition in the premium electric vehicle market and concerns about Li Auto's positioning.
- Cautious sentiment stems from softer Q3 delivery outlooks and recent downward earnings revisions. Volume and revenue estimates have been cut for future years.
- There are concerns that Li Auto's battery electric vehicle strategy could be margin dilutive and that management will need to clearly articulate its plans for driving future growth, especially with new competitors in the segment.
- Some note that broader market factors, including slowing demand in China as government subsidies expire, could weigh further on valuation and long-term growth.
What's in the News
- Li Auto officially launched the Li i6, a five-seat battery electric SUV. Deliveries will begin on September 27, 2025. (Key Developments)
- The company will introduce software upgrades in September, including the release of OTA 8.0 and the VLA Driver large model for all Li AD Max users, as well as an updated Li Xiang Tong Xue Agent. (Key Developments)
- Li Auto provided Q3 2025 guidance, expecting vehicle deliveries between 90,000 and 95,000 units. This represents a year-over-year decrease of up to 41 percent, with revenue declines of similar magnitude. (Key Developments)
- Li Auto has been removed from the S&P International 700 and S&P Global 1200 indices. (Key Developments)
- XPeng, a key competitor, announced plans to launch its mass-market Mona brand in overseas markets. This highlights intensifying international competition. (Periodicals)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: The fair value estimate has edged down marginally from $28.90 to $28.70.
- Discount Rate: The applied discount rate has fallen slightly from 12.09 percent to 11.52 percent. This reflects updated risk assessments.
- Revenue Growth: Projected annual revenue growth has decreased minimally from 17.10 percent to 17.07 percent.
- Net Profit Margin: Forecast net profit margin has slipped a fraction from 6.51 percent to 6.50 percent.
- Future P/E: The forward price-to-earnings ratio estimate has declined from 20.19x to 19.81x. This indicates small downward adjustments in earnings expectations.
Disclaimer
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