Spotify Technology Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
Spotify Technology is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 25.2% and 11.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 24.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 24% in 3 years.
Key information
25.2%
Earnings growth rate
24.40%
EPS growth rate
Entertainment earnings growth | 21.4% |
Revenue growth rate | 11.9% |
Future return on equity | 24.04% |
Analyst coverage | Good |
Last updated | 12 May 2025 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve
May 07Subdued Growth No Barrier To Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) With Shares Advancing 28%
May 05Spotify: Margin Expansion And Subscriber Growth Justify High Multiples (Upgrade)
May 02Spotify Is Executing Brilliantly, But The Stock Isn't A Buy Anymore (Rating Downgrade)
Apr 16Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?
Apr 02Spotify: The Road Ahead Is Tough, But It Is Positioned Well
Mar 14A Look At The Fair Value Of Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)
Mar 02Spotify: Just Getting Started
Feb 14Spotify Q4: Profitability Is Only Getting Better
Feb 05
Narrative update from Michael Paige
Feb 05Retain Dominant Market Share Position In Paid Music StreamingThis assumptions appears to be tracking well and ahead of my conservative estimates. I estimated 8% growth per year in MAU and premium subsSpotify Q4 Preview: Changing Creator Incentives
Jan 22Spotify: The Operational Leverage Run Is Close To Being Over, What's Next?
Jan 15Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
Jan 08Spotify: My Top Investment Pick For 2025
Dec 15From $15 Billion To $100 Billion: Lessons From Our Spotify Investment
Dec 08Expanding Audiobook Offerings And AI Innovation Propel Dynamic Growth Trajectory
Nov 24 Expansion into audiobooks and AI-enhanced music discovery are set to boost user engagement and revenue growth.Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) P/S
Nov 13Spotify Q3: Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Improvement
Nov 12Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher
Oct 10Spotify: Who's There? TikTok - Buy
Oct 03
Narrative update from Richard Bowman
Sep 19Monthly active users up 2% Q/Q and 14% Y/YSpotify: Why We Remain Confident In The Position We've Built
Sep 13Spotify: Beware Slowing MAU Growth, Lock In Gains And Sell (Rating Downgrade)
Aug 24
Narrative update from Michael Paige
Aug 16In terms of market share, nothing has particularly changed, and reports still indicate that it has around one-third of market share in the industry.Investors Still Waiting For A Pull Back In Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)
Aug 09Spotify Q2: Subscriber Gains With Improved Monetization
Jul 23Spotify: Ready To Jump As Price And Bundling Adjustment Flow To Earnings
Jul 16Spotify's Price Hikes Make It Expensive For Everyone
Jul 08Estimating The Fair Value Of Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)
Jun 20Spotify: Price Increases Are Helping To Mask Weaker User Growth
Jun 07Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
Jun 04Is Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Using Too Much Debt?
May 21Baron Fund - Spotify Technology: A Long-Term Winner In Music Streaming
May 16
Narrative update from Michael Paige
May 15In terms of market share, nothing has particularly changed, and reports still indicate that it has around one-third of market share in the industry.Spotify: Bet On This 'Forever-Subscription' Company
May 06
Narrative update from Richard Bowman
Apr 29Spotify’s Focus on Profitability is Beginning to Pay Off Spotify announced solid results for the first quarter. Premium subs increased by 14% from Q1 2023, but were only 3 million higher than Q4 2023.Spotify: Firing On All Cylinders, Initiating Stock With 'Strong Buy'
Apr 24Spotify: Expansion Success Is Largely Priced In
Apr 17Spotify Technology: My Top Recommendation For Potentially Explosive Upside
Apr 03Spotify's Faceoff With YouTube Is Intriguing, But A Sanity Check Is Due
Mar 21Wall Street Lunch: Spotify To Introduce Music Videos
Mar 13
Narrative update from Michael Paige
Mar 12User Growth, Revenue and FCF Surprise On The Upside, Partially Offset By FX Headwinds. With revenue and profitability trends both inflecting favourably heading into 2024, I view the business as wellSpotify's Long-Term Prospects Outweigh Present Stock Valuation Concerns
Feb 28
Ad Revenue and Margin Improvement Will Lead to Stronger Cash Flows
Feb 19Premium revenue to be kept in check by competition and market saturation.Spotify: Time To Lock In Gains For Now (Rating Downgrade)
Feb 14Spotify Q4 2023 Earnings Update
Feb 07Spotify: Music Streaming Remains A Competitive Nightmare
Jan 08Spotify's Headcount Reduction - A Strategic Reorientation
Dec 11Spotify: Optimism Is Returning
Dec 04Spotify: Adding To The Watchlist, But Not Buying
Nov 20
Narrative update from Michael Paige
Nov 15On October 24th, Spotify reported its Q3 results and I was very happy with the performance as it showed general continuation of trends in the right direction for MAU, Premium subscribers, revenue andSpotify: Focus On Profitability Makes Me Positive
Oct 31
Industry Tailwinds, Increased Monetization and Changing Cost Structure Will Lead To Higher Cash Flows
Oct 23Spotify is wisely focusing on long-term objectives over short-term profitability.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
12/31/2027 | 23,413 | 3,352 | 4,422 | 4,326 | 24 |
12/31/2026 | 20,586 | 2,602 | 3,565 | 3,524 | 36 |
12/31/2025 | 17,821 | 1,837 | 2,766 | 2,764 | 33 |
3/31/2025 | 16,227 | 1,166 | 2,611 | 2,629 | N/A |
12/31/2024 | 15,673 | 1,138 | 2,284 | 2,301 | N/A |
9/30/2024 | 15,102 | 701 | 1,803 | 1,815 | N/A |
6/30/2024 | 14,471 | 466 | 1,302 | 1,311 | N/A |
3/31/2024 | 13,841 | -110 | 823 | 832 | N/A |
12/31/2023 | 13,247 | -532 | 674 | 680 | N/A |
9/30/2023 | 12,742 | -732 | 203 | 213 | N/A |
6/30/2023 | 12,421 | -963 | 28 | 42 | N/A |
3/31/2023 | 12,108 | -786 | 51 | 68 | N/A |
12/31/2022 | 11,727 | -430 | 21 | 46 | N/A |
9/30/2022 | 11,250 | -199 | 199 | 235 | N/A |
6/30/2022 | 10,715 | -31 | 262 | 318 | N/A |
3/31/2022 | 10,182 | 74 | 262 | 333 | N/A |
12/31/2021 | 9,668 | -34 | 276 | 361 | N/A |
9/30/2021 | 9,147 | -120 | 245 | 349 | N/A |
6/30/2021 | 8,621 | -223 | 252 | 348 | N/A |
3/31/2021 | 8,179 | -559 | 243 | 333 | N/A |
12/31/2020 | 7,880 | -581 | 181 | 259 | N/A |
9/30/2020 | 7,567 | -665 | 280 | 355 | N/A |
6/30/2020 | 7,323 | -323 | 220 | 304 | N/A |
3/31/2020 | 7,101 | -43 | 245 | 355 | N/A |
12/31/2019 | 6,764 | -186 | 438 | 573 | N/A |
9/30/2019 | 6,404 | 465 | 352 | 520 | N/A |
6/30/2019 | 6,025 | 267 | 338 | 529 | N/A |
3/31/2019 | 5,631 | -51 | 313 | 469 | N/A |
12/31/2018 | 5,259 | -78 | N/A | 344 | N/A |
9/30/2018 | 4,913 | -1,116 | N/A | 289 | N/A |
6/30/2018 | 4,593 | -1,437 | N/A | 128 | N/A |
3/31/2018 | 4,327 | -1,231 | N/A | 170 | N/A |
12/31/2017 | 4,090 | -1,235 | N/A | 179 | N/A |
12/31/2016 | 2,952 | -539 | N/A | 101 | N/A |
1/1/2016 | 1,940 | -230 | N/A | -38 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: SPOT's forecast earnings growth (25.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2.8%).
Earnings vs Market: SPOT's earnings (25.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).
High Growth Earnings: SPOT's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: SPOT's revenue (11.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: SPOT's revenue (11.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: SPOT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
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Company Analysis | 2025/05/18 14:06 |
End of Day Share Price | 2025/05/16 00:00 |
Earnings | 2025/03/31 |
Annual Earnings | 2024/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
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Company Financials | 10 years |
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Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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Market Prices | 30 years |
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Ownership | 10 years |
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Management | 10 years |
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Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 75 analysts. 36 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
Analyst | Institution |
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William Noel Milner | Arete Research Services LLP |
Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |
Samuel Lourensz | Arete Research Services LLP |