Spotify Technology S.A.

NYSE:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$104.4b

Spotify Technology Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Spotify Technology is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.2% and 11% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 15.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 26.4% in 3 years.

Key information

16.2%

Earnings growth rate

15.78%

EPS growth rate

Entertainment earnings growth19.7%
Revenue growth rate11.0%
Future return on equity26.39%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated26 Feb 2026

Recent future growth updates

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Nov 07
Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Recent updates

Spotify (SPOT): The Audio Super-Platform – Scaling Profitability in the "Year of Raising Ambition"

Spotify Technology (SPOT) has decisively silenced the skeptics who questioned its ability to turn massive scale into meaningful profit. Following its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings report on February 10, 2026 , the stock experienced a powerful 12% surge , eventually stabilizing around $511.84 as of February 27.

Spotify - A Fundamental and Historical Valuation

️Business Overview Key Metrics Total: -1/17 +1 ✅ Projected Operating Margin: 17.56% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 10.87% +0 ⚠️ Last 5-Year ROIC: 4.68% -2 ❌ Estimated Cost of Capital: 7.71% (greater than ROIC) -1 ❌ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +2.07% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 15.46% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: N/A +1 ✅ Estimated Debt Rating: A1 -1 ❌ Morningstar Moat: Narrow -1 ❌ Morningstar Uncertainty: High Despite its Narrow Moat rating by Morningstar, Spotify still shows an operating margin around ~15-20% and expanding. Its revenue and EPS growth is also solid between 10-15%.

Spotify: Downgrade On Structural Deceleration

Feb 11

Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) 26% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings

Feb 05
Spotify Technology S.A.'s (NYSE:SPOT) 26% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Earnings

We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Nov 11
We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Nov 07
Spotify Technology S.A. Just Recorded A 63% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?

Jul 31
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Could Easily Take On More Debt

Jul 02
Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT) Could Easily Take On More Debt

We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

May 07
We Think Spotify Technology's (NYSE:SPOT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

Subdued Growth No Barrier To Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) With Shares Advancing 28%

May 05
Subdued Growth No Barrier To Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT) With Shares Advancing 28%

Spotify Is Executing Brilliantly, But The Stock Isn't A Buy Anymore (Rating Downgrade)

Apr 16

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?

Apr 02
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:SPOT)?

Spotify: The Road Ahead Is Tough, But It Is Positioned Well

Mar 14

Spotify: Just Getting Started

Feb 14

Spotify Q4: Profitability Is Only Getting Better

Feb 05
User avatar

Narrative update from Michael Paige

Retain Dominant Market Share Position In Paid Music StreamingThis assumptions appears to be tracking well and ahead of my conservative estimates. I estimated 8% growth per year in MAU and premium subs

Spotify Q4 Preview: Changing Creator Incentives

Jan 22

Spotify: The Operational Leverage Run Is Close To Being Over, What's Next?

Jan 15

Spotify: My Top Investment Pick For 2025

Dec 15

From $15 Billion To $100 Billion: Lessons From Our Spotify Investment

Dec 08
User avatar

Expanding Audiobook Offerings And AI Innovation Propel Dynamic Growth Trajectory

Expansion into audiobooks and AI-enhanced music discovery are set to boost user engagement and revenue growth.

Spotify Q3: Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Improvement

Nov 12

Spotify: Who's There? TikTok - Buy

Oct 03
User avatar

Narrative update from Richard Bowman

Monthly active users up 2% Q/Q and 14% Y/Y

Spotify: Why We Remain Confident In The Position We've Built

Sep 13

Spotify: Beware Slowing MAU Growth, Lock In Gains And Sell (Rating Downgrade)

Aug 24
User avatar

Narrative update from Michael Paige

In terms of market share, nothing has particularly changed, and reports still indicate that it has around one-third of market share in the industry. 

Spotify Q2: Subscriber Gains With Improved Monetization

Jul 23

Spotify: Ready To Jump As Price And Bundling Adjustment Flow To Earnings

Jul 16

Spotify's Price Hikes Make It Expensive For Everyone

Jul 08

Spotify: Price Increases Are Helping To Mask Weaker User Growth

Jun 07

Baron Fund - Spotify Technology: A Long-Term Winner In Music Streaming

May 16
User avatar

Narrative update from Michael Paige

In terms of market share, nothing has particularly changed, and reports still indicate that it has around one-third of market share in the industry. 

Spotify: Bet On This 'Forever-Subscription' Company

May 06
User avatar

Narrative update from Richard Bowman

Spotify’s Focus on Profitability is Beginning to Pay Off Spotify announced solid results for the first quarter. Premium subs increased by 14% from Q1 2023, but were only 3 million higher than Q4 2023.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SPOT - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (EUR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202824,9784,0695,1274,76520
12/31/202722,1633,3904,3584,23535
12/31/202619,4952,7473,5733,49832
12/31/202517,1862,2122,8722,933N/A
9/30/202516,8971,4052,9152,960N/A
6/30/202516,6138062,8202,846N/A
3/31/202516,2271,1662,6112,629N/A
12/31/202415,6731,1382,2842,301N/A
9/30/202415,1027011,8031,815N/A
6/30/202414,4714661,3021,311N/A
3/31/202413,841-110823832N/A
12/31/202313,247-532674680N/A
9/30/202312,742-732203213N/A
6/30/202312,421-9632842N/A
3/31/202312,108-7865168N/A
12/31/202211,727-4302146N/A
9/30/202211,250-199199235N/A
6/30/202210,715-31262318N/A
3/31/202210,18274262333N/A
12/31/20219,668-34276361N/A
9/30/20219,147-120245349N/A
6/30/20218,621-223252348N/A
3/31/20218,179-559243333N/A
12/31/20207,880-581181259N/A
9/30/20207,567-665280355N/A
6/30/20207,323-323220304N/A
3/31/20207,101-43245355N/A
12/31/20196,764-186438573N/A
9/30/20196,404465N/A520N/A
6/30/20196,025267N/A529N/A
3/31/20195,631-51N/A469N/A
12/31/20185,259-78N/A344N/A
9/30/20184,913-1,116N/A289N/A
6/30/20184,593-1,437N/A128N/A
3/31/20184,327-1,231N/A170N/A
12/31/20174,090-1,235N/A179N/A
12/31/20162,952-539N/A101N/A
1/1/20161,940-230N/A-38N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SPOT's forecast earnings growth (16.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: SPOT's earnings (16.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (15.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SPOT's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: SPOT's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SPOT's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SPOT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.4%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/03 05:12
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/03 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 67 analysts. 35 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
Samuel LourenszArete Research Services LLP
William Noel MilnerArete Research Services LLP