Spotify Technology S.A.

NYSE:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$90.7b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPOT ($454.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($500.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPOT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPOT?

Key metric: As SPOT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPOT. This is calculated by dividing SPOT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPOT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio126.3x
Earnings€701.00m
Market Cap€87.44b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPOT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average80.6x
DIS Walt Disney
40.6x19.6%US$201.6b
FWON.K Formula One Group
84.7x18.0%US$22.8b
NFLX Netflix
49.6x15.9%US$380.2b
LYV Live Nation Entertainment
147.4x26.9%US$30.6b
SPOT Spotify Technology
126.3x29.7%US$90.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (126.3x) compared to the peer average (80.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DDI DoubleDown Interactive
4.6x0.3%US$524.77m
RDBX Redbox Entertainment
1.2x-121.8%US$76.65m
SJ Scienjoy Holding
5xn/aUS$36.11m
GMM Global Mofy AI
0.6xn/aUS$10.19m
SPOT 126.3xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies8PE020406080100+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (126.3x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPOT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio126.3x
Fair PE Ratio34.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (126.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPOT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$454.16
US$474.77
+4.5%
14.8%US$604.17US$232.20n/a35
Dec ’25US$476.96
US$473.70
-0.7%
14.4%US$610.75US$234.73n/a34
Nov ’25US$384.50
US$400.81
+4.2%
13.3%US$496.18US$242.80n/a34
Oct ’25US$375.40
US$397.88
+6.0%
13.5%US$509.83US$249.47n/a35
Sep ’25US$342.88
US$397.57
+16.0%
13.1%US$470.99US$249.03n/a33
Aug ’25US$336.50
US$384.99
+14.4%
13.1%US$458.66US$244.26n/a33
Jul ’25US$313.84
US$345.15
+10.0%
13.7%US$401.20US$210.63n/a31
Jun ’25US$296.78
US$344.56
+16.1%
14.2%US$405.95US$213.51n/a32
May ’25US$284.54
US$333.28
+17.1%
15.7%US$399.70US$210.22n/a33
Apr ’25US$266.43
US$268.01
+0.6%
14.2%US$329.82US$163.12n/a33
Mar ’25US$263.75
US$265.88
+0.8%
13.6%US$331.89US$164.14n/a32
Feb ’25US$218.96
US$218.99
+0.01%
14.9%US$301.72US$164.09n/a30
Jan ’25US$187.91
US$213.24
+13.5%
15.4%US$308.28US$152.75n/a30
Dec ’24US$180.69
US$190.03
+5.2%
13.0%US$256.77US$137.50US$476.9629
Nov ’24US$167.63
US$182.13
+8.6%
15.0%US$249.87US$105.38US$384.5030
Oct ’24US$154.64
US$165.26
+6.9%
15.2%US$240.20US$104.60US$375.4030
Sep ’24US$157.56
US$168.49
+6.9%
15.5%US$249.70US$108.74US$342.8831
Aug ’24US$150.84
US$170.29
+12.9%
15.2%US$248.85US$108.24US$336.5032
Jul ’24US$160.55
US$159.43
-0.7%
13.1%US$189.34US$107.15US$313.8431
Jun ’24US$153.92
US$154.34
+0.3%
12.7%US$181.24US$106.08US$296.7830
May ’24US$138.43
US$151.49
+9.4%
14.5%US$184.80US$91.73US$284.5430
Apr ’24US$133.62
US$137.20
+2.7%
17.3%US$190.97US$91.19US$266.4329
Mar ’24US$117.20
US$131.12
+11.9%
17.8%US$181.61US$81.05US$263.7529
Feb ’24US$118.14
US$128.03
+8.4%
16.1%US$187.11US$83.51US$218.9629
Jan ’24US$78.95
US$124.54
+57.8%
18.2%US$184.55US$91.75US$187.9129
Dec ’23US$79.45
US$118.65
+49.3%
18.4%US$174.25US$86.62US$180.6929

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 06:28
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 67 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
William Noel MilnerArete Research Services LLP
Samuel LourenszArete Research Services LLP