Spotify Technology S.A.

NYSE:SPOT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$92.6b

Spotify Technology Valuation

Is SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPOT ($454.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($541.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPOT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPOT?

Key metric: As SPOT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPOT. This is calculated by dividing SPOT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPOT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio124.4x
Earnings€701.00m
Market Cap€87.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPOT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average76.9x
DIS Walt Disney
41.4x19.5%US$208.4b
NFLX Netflix
46.5x15.9%US$352.2b
FWON.K Formula One Group
72x20.0%US$20.1b
LYV Live Nation Entertainment
147.9x31.4%US$29.7b
SPOT Spotify Technology
124.4x29.5%US$92.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (124.4x) compared to the peer average (76.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IH iHuman
4.7xn/aUS$85.73m
RDBX Redbox Entertainment
1.2x-121.8%US$76.65m
GMM Global Mofy AI
0.7xn/aUS$9.48m
MSGM Motorsport Games
0.7xn/aUS$3.53m
SPOT 124.4xIndustry Avg. 21.9xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (124.4x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (21.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPOT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio124.4x
Fair PE Ratio34.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (124.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPOT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$454.36
US$461.98
+1.7%
19.0%US$613.71US$154.77n/a35
Nov ’25US$384.50
US$393.91
+2.4%
16.8%US$496.18US$159.32n/a35
Oct ’25US$375.40
US$391.38
+4.3%
16.7%US$509.83US$163.70n/a36
Sep ’25US$342.88
US$390.68
+13.9%
16.6%US$470.99US$163.41n/a34
Aug ’25US$336.50
US$378.35
+12.4%
16.6%US$458.66US$159.13n/a34
Jul ’25US$313.84
US$339.28
+8.1%
16.7%US$401.20US$157.49n/a32
Jun ’25US$296.78
US$338.96
+14.2%
17.0%US$405.95US$159.65n/a33
May ’25US$284.54
US$328.10
+15.3%
18.1%US$399.70US$157.19n/a34
Apr ’25US$266.43
US$264.77
-0.6%
15.8%US$329.82US$157.92n/a34
Mar ’25US$263.75
US$262.64
-0.4%
15.3%US$331.89US$158.91n/a33
Feb ’25US$218.96
US$217.05
-0.9%
15.6%US$301.72US$158.85n/a31
Jan ’25US$187.91
US$211.60
+12.6%
15.9%US$308.28US$152.75n/a31
Dec ’24US$180.69
US$189.02
+4.6%
13.2%US$256.77US$137.50n/a30
Nov ’24US$167.63
US$181.27
+8.1%
15.0%US$249.87US$105.38US$384.5031
Oct ’24US$154.64
US$164.91
+6.6%
15.0%US$240.20US$104.60US$375.4031
Sep ’24US$157.56
US$168.23
+6.8%
15.3%US$249.70US$108.74US$342.8832
Aug ’24US$150.84
US$170.01
+12.7%
15.0%US$248.85US$108.24US$336.5033
Jul ’24US$160.55
US$159.43
-0.7%
12.9%US$189.34US$107.15US$313.8432
Jun ’24US$153.92
US$153.48
-0.3%
12.9%US$181.24US$106.08US$296.7831
May ’24US$138.43
US$150.80
+8.9%
14.5%US$184.80US$91.73US$284.5431
Apr ’24US$133.62
US$136.93
+2.5%
17.1%US$190.97US$91.19US$266.4330
Mar ’24US$117.20
US$131.12
+11.9%
17.8%US$181.61US$81.05US$263.7529
Feb ’24US$118.14
US$128.03
+8.4%
16.1%US$187.11US$83.51US$218.9629
Jan ’24US$78.95
US$124.54
+57.8%
18.2%US$184.55US$91.75US$187.9129
Dec ’23US$79.45
US$118.65
+49.3%
18.4%US$174.25US$86.62US$180.6929
Nov ’23US$80.17
US$116.96
+45.9%
18.4%US$171.70US$85.36US$167.6329

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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