Persimmon Plc

LSE:PSN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£5.3b

Persimmon Valuation

Is PSN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSN (£16.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£28.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PSN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.5x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.3x
TW. Taylor Wimpey
23.8x17.2%UK£5.9b
BKG Berkeley Group Holdings
12.1x-4.2%UK£4.8b
BDEV Barratt Developments
60.5x44.5%UK£6.9b
BWY Bellway
16.9x13.9%UK£3.7b
PSN Persimmon
20.5x17.7%UK£5.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the peer average (28.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Durables Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.9%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.9%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the European Consumer Durables industry average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.5x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£16.44
UK£16.57
+0.8%
13.9%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Sep ’25UK£16.44
UK£16.28
-1.0%
13.7%UK£23.00UK£14.10n/a17
Aug ’25UK£15.89
UK£15.34
-3.5%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jul ’25UK£13.72
UK£15.29
+11.4%
14.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a17
Jun ’25UK£14.45
UK£15.04
+4.0%
15.7%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
May ’25UK£12.89
UK£14.93
+15.9%
16.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Apr ’25UK£13.16
UK£14.76
+12.2%
17.3%UK£23.00UK£11.80n/a16
Mar ’25UK£13.87
UK£14.91
+7.5%
17.8%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Feb ’25UK£14.43
UK£14.74
+2.2%
18.2%UK£23.00UK£11.20n/a16
Jan ’25UK£13.89
UK£12.86
-7.4%
22.3%UK£23.00UK£9.80n/a16
Dec ’24UK£12.78
UK£12.74
-0.3%
22.4%UK£23.00UK£9.80n/a16
Nov ’24UK£10.32
UK£12.94
+25.4%
22.1%UK£23.00UK£9.80n/a17
Oct ’24UK£10.78
UK£12.80
+18.8%
21.6%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.4419
Sep ’24UK£10.59
UK£12.78
+20.7%
22.2%UK£23.00UK£9.80UK£16.4418
Aug ’24UK£11.56
UK£13.49
+16.7%
28.0%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£15.8918
Jul ’24UK£10.26
UK£13.77
+34.2%
27.5%UK£23.80UK£9.70UK£13.7218
Jun ’24UK£12.23
UK£14.49
+18.5%
25.4%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£14.4517
May ’24UK£13.14
UK£14.52
+10.5%
25.2%UK£23.80UK£10.59UK£12.8917
Apr ’24UK£12.56
UK£13.87
+10.4%
21.8%UK£23.00UK£10.42UK£13.1615
Mar ’24UK£12.78
UK£14.28
+11.8%
19.7%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£13.8716
Feb ’24UK£14.10
UK£14.53
+3.1%
19.2%UK£23.40UK£11.81UK£14.4316
Jan ’24UK£12.17
UK£14.51
+19.2%
19.6%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£13.8916
Dec ’23UK£12.85
UK£14.88
+15.8%
22.1%UK£23.40UK£11.17UK£12.7816
Nov ’23UK£13.22
UK£18.27
+38.2%
30.6%UK£29.00UK£11.17UK£10.3215
Oct ’23UK£12.38
UK£21.78
+76.0%
20.8%UK£29.00UK£14.10UK£10.7815

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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