Toast (TOST) Stock Overview
Operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
TOST passed our risk checks.
TOST Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 163 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Toast, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$34.75 |
| 52 Week High | US$45.64 |
| 52 Week Low | US$22.26 |
| Beta | 1.73 |
| 1 Month Change | 14.35% |
| 3 Month Change | 50.76% |
| 1 Year Change | -19.47% |
| 3 Year Change | 59.40% |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -44.41% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Aug 13
TOST: Recurring Gross Profit And SaaS ARPU Will Restore Market Confidence
The analyst fair value estimate for Toast has been raised from $42.19 to $45.00 as analysts update their models to reflect stronger recurring gross profit, higher SaaS ARPU expectations, and Q2 results that came in ahead of prior forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a clear tilt toward a more constructive view on Toast, with multiple bullish analysts revising their models after Q2 results and adjusting price targets higher.Seeking Alpha • Aug 03
Toast: The Restaurant Disruptor Faces Its Next Test
Summary Toast continues to gain restaurant market share, with 171,000 locations and recurring gross profit outpacing location and payment volume growth. AI-driven Toast IQ adoption is substantial, reaching 23% of the base, and early monetization efforts like Toast IQ Grow show promising incremental revenue potential. Expansion into enterprise, international, and retail markets extends TOST’s growth runway, though hardware cost pressures and competitive threats warrant monitoring. At ~24x 2026 earnings, TOST’s Buy rating is supported by rapid growth, deepening software adoption, and emerging operating leverage, though valuation assumes significant margin expansion. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Aug 13
TOST: Recurring Gross Profit And SaaS ARPU Will Restore Market Confidence
The analyst fair value estimate for Toast has been raised from $42.19 to $45.00 as analysts update their models to reflect stronger recurring gross profit, higher SaaS ARPU expectations, and Q2 results that came in ahead of prior forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a clear tilt toward a more constructive view on Toast, with multiple bullish analysts revising their models after Q2 results and adjusting price targets higher.Seeking Alpha • Aug 03
Toast: The Restaurant Disruptor Faces Its Next Test
Summary Toast continues to gain restaurant market share, with 171,000 locations and recurring gross profit outpacing location and payment volume growth. AI-driven Toast IQ adoption is substantial, reaching 23% of the base, and early monetization efforts like Toast IQ Grow show promising incremental revenue potential. Expansion into enterprise, international, and retail markets extends TOST’s growth runway, though hardware cost pressures and competitive threats warrant monitoring. At ~24x 2026 earnings, TOST’s Buy rating is supported by rapid growth, deepening software adoption, and emerging operating leverage, though valuation assumes significant margin expansion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 30
TOST: AI And Product Stickiness Balance Competitive Risks And Execution Uncertainty
Toast's analyst price target has been revised modestly higher to $34.73 from $33.88 as analysts factor in a mix of slightly adjusted growth and margin assumptions, along with recent research pointing to solid Q2 expectations, product strength, and stickiness with small and medium sized business customers. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast highlights a mix of optimism around product quality and execution, along with caution on competition, margins, and prior share performance.Narrative Update • Jul 16
TOST: AI Marketing And Product Strength Will Drive Renewed Market Confidence
The new analyst fair value estimate for Toast has shifted to $42.19 from $60.85, as analysts weigh a mix of recent price target cuts and upgrades that highlight both competitive and margin risks, along with renewed optimism around the company’s product strength and AI enabled marketing services. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Toast reflects a split view, but the latest moves from several large firms show a constructive tone around the stock.
Narrative Update • Jul 02
TOST: Rising Competitive Threats Will Pressure Future Repricing Expectations
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for Toast to about $25.54 from $36.00, reflecting lower projected revenue growth, a higher profit margin outlook, and a more conservative future P/E assumption, while still citing room for Toast in core restaurant markets and stickiness in small and medium-sized business surveys. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast highlights a split view, with some firms pointing to opportunities in core restaurant markets and others flagging risks around growth, competition, and execution.Analysis Article • Jun 22
Toast (TOST) Stock Could Be 27% Undervalued After Hungry Howie’s Win And Soft Guidance
Toast (TOST) is back in focus after a recent mix of upbeat business developments and more cautious guidance, highlighted by new analyst coverage and a large enterprise rollout with Hungry Howie’s restaurants. See our latest analysis for Toast. Toast’s recent mix of upbeat coverage and cautious guidance has fed into a choppy share price pattern. The stock has a 6.48% 1 month share price return but a year to date share price decline of 27.51%, while 1 year total shareholder return is down...Narrative Update • Jun 18
TOST: AI Adoption And Customer Stickiness Will Drive Future Stock Re Rating
Analysts trimmed the Toast price target by about $0.10 to roughly $33.90, reflecting a blend of recent cautious revisions and continued confidence in the company’s restaurant market position and reported customer stickiness in small and medium-sized businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast shows a split view, with some bullish analysts highlighting room for growth in core restaurant markets and others focusing on competitive and execution risks that could cap valuation upside in the near term.Narrative Update • Jun 02
TOST: Product Stickiness And AI Platform Pivot Will Support Future Re Rating
Analysts now see Toast's fair value at $33.96, down from $36.36. This reflects a series of reduced price targets that incorporate survey based evidence of product stickiness alongside fresh competitive and partnership risks.Narrative Update • May 09
TOST: Software Moat And AI Adoption Will Support Re-Rating Despite Cuts
Analysts have trimmed their average Toast price target by several dollars to around $36, reflecting a series of target cuts across firms that updated models after recent Q4 results and sector wide multiple compression, even as some still point to solid execution and differentiated software in restaurant payments. Analyst Commentary Street research on Toast over the recent period combines a clear reset in price targets with generally constructive views on execution and the underlying software and payments platform.Narrative Update • Apr 23
TOST: Software Moat And AI Adoption Will Support Future Repricing
The analyst price target for Toast edges down from $36.75 to $36.36 as analysts update their models to reflect revised sector multiples and mixed, but generally solid, recent research views on the company. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast shows a mix of optimism around execution and competitive positioning, alongside a reset in expectations that has pulled price targets lower across much of the coverage universe.Narrative Update • Apr 08
TOST: Software Moat And AI Tools Will Support Future Repricing
Analysts have trimmed the Toast fair value estimate slightly to $36.75 from $37.70 as a series of reduced price targets, mostly tied to lower sector multiples and modest model tweaks after Q4 results, offset more supportive views on the company’s software moat and quality within payments. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Toast presents a mixed picture, with price targets generally adjusted lower while views on the company’s execution, software moat and role within payments remain constructive in many cases.Narrative Update • Mar 24
TOST: Restaurant Execution And AI Tools Will Support Future Repricing
Narrative Update The updated analyst price target for Toast edges up to about $38 from roughly $37, reflecting models that assume steady growth, a slightly lower discount rate, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple, even as several firms trim their individual targets after Q4 results. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast clusters around two themes, with many firms trimming price targets after Q4 while still highlighting solid execution and quality, and a smaller group flagging valuation and competitive risks as reasons for caution.Narrative Update • Mar 10
TOST: Restaurant Execution And AI Tools Will Support Future Margin Expansion
Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Toast slightly lower, from $37.58 to $37.22. A wave of reduced but still supportive Street price targets reflects updated models after Q4 results, modestly lower sector multiples, and some caution around early year weather impacts on near term revenue.Narrative Update • Feb 23
TOST: Restaurant Execution And AI Adoption Will Support Future Margin Expansion
Our updated fair value estimate for Toast has moved lower to $37.58 from $46.38, reflecting a broad wave of reduced Street price targets as analysts factor in slightly softer long term revenue growth assumptions, improved margin expectations, and lower sector P/E multiples, while still generally viewing recent Q4 performance as solid. Analyst Commentary Street research on Toast has become more mixed, with most firms trimming price targets while still generally acknowledging solid Q4 execution.Narrative Update • Feb 07
TOST: Restaurant Execution And New Installations Will Support Future Margin Expansion
Narrative Update on Toast The analyst price target for Toast has been trimmed slightly, based on research that balances expectations for solid near term results with concerns related to competition, valuation, and the expansion of the total addressable market. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast reflects a mixed setup, with some analysts highlighting execution strengths and others focusing on valuation and competitive pressures.Analysis Article • Feb 06
Investors Give Toast, Inc. (NYSE:TOST) Shares A 25% Hiding
Toast, Inc. ( NYSE:TOST ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25...Narrative Update • Jan 24
TOST: U S Restaurant Share Gains Will Support Future Margin Expansion
The analyst price target for Toast has been trimmed by about $1 to $46.63, as analysts weigh slightly softer modeled revenue growth and a lower future P/E against improved profit margin expectations and ongoing mixed signals from recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Toast shows a mix of optimism around execution and margins, alongside caution on valuation, competition, and longer term growth assumptions.Narrative Update • Jan 09
TOST: U S Restaurant Share Gains Will Support Future Fintech Pricing Power
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Toast slightly higher to about US$47.75. This reflects updated views on growth, profitability and P/E assumptions after a mix of new initiations with Buy ratings and lower price targets that factor in competition, valuation and macro uncertainty.Narrative Update • Dec 15
TOST: U S Restaurant Share Gains Will Drive Future Fintech Pricing Power
Analysts nudged their average price target on Toast slightly higher to the mid $40s, citing resilient recurring revenue growth, improving profitability, and conservative longer term guidance as supportive of modest upside despite a series of modest target cuts and ongoing macro uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Street research paints a nuanced picture for Toast, with most firms trimming price targets while still acknowledging strong execution and an attractive long term growth runway.Narrative Update • Dec 01
TOST: U S Restaurant Market Share Gains Will Drive Sustained Upside Momentum
Analysts have revised their average price target for Toast downward by several dollars. The new expectations are now in the mid-$40s range, with analysts citing strong recent performance as well as increased caution over macro uncertainty and future earnings outlooks.Narrative Update • Nov 16
TOST: Expansion Into New Restaurant Markets Will Drive Continued Momentum
Analysts have revised Toast's fair value estimate downward by approximately $1 to $47.35 per share. They cited strong recent results but also expressed caution regarding macroeconomic uncertainty and a more conservative long-term outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 01
TOST: Expanded Restaurant Platform Reach Will Drive Long-Term Market Leadership
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value price target for Toast to approximately $48.38, a modest decrease of $0.53. This adjustment reflects sustained market growth expectations, though recent caution around profit margins and sector-wide guidance concerns has also contributed to the change.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Integrated Digital Payments And Automation Will Unlock Future Opportunities
The average analyst price target for Toast has been revised slightly lower, decreasing by $0.79 to $48.92. Analysts are factoring in moderated profit margin expectations along with ongoing growth opportunities highlighted in recent research.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Integrated Digital Payments And Automation Will Unlock Future Opportunities
Analysts have slightly reduced their fair value price target for Toast to $49.71 from $50.54. They cite recent shifts in starter kit software pricing and ongoing competitive dynamics in the restaurant technology sector as reasons for the change.Narrative Update • Aug 07
Integrated Digital Payments And Automation Will Unlock Future Opportunities
The Analyst Price Target for Toast rose notably from $44.64 to $49.38, primarily reflecting improved net profit margin, despite a slight deceleration in revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News American Express and Toast formed a multi-year strategic partnership to integrate their technologies, aiming to enhance personalized hospitality and guest experiences across their restaurant networks, including Resy, Tock, and Toast locations.
New Narrative • Apr 23
Investing In R&D And AI Will Open New Markets
Expanding into new segments and geographies is set to drive location growth and revenue expansion.Seeking Alpha • Apr 16
Toast: Strong Foundations For Future Growth
Summary Toast enjoys strong moats, including switching costs and network effects. The company is expanding internationally, launching new products, and targeting new verticals, driving future growth. Toast's strategic focus on SMBs and payment processing revenue streams has built a strong competitive advantage and customer loyalty. Despite economic concerns, Toast's high ROIC relative to WACC indicates it is creating value, making it a long-term investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 10
Toast: Low Market Sentiment And Recession Are Only An Opportunity
Summary Toast's stock has dropped 30% since November 2024, presenting a buying opportunity despite recession fears. The company has improved significantly its margins over the years and is now both FCF and GAAP net profitable. Thanks to their fortress balance sheet, even a recession, while painful, will not be an existential threat, and they might come out of it strong. When the market goes into sell-off mode is exactly the time to take advantage of cheaper prices for good companies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 06
Toast Has Fallen Far Enough, It's Time To Buy Back In (Upgrade)
Summary Toast's stock has dropped ~20% from recent peaks in the mid-$40s, creating an opportune re-entry point. I'm upgrading the stock back to a buy rating. Though still not a cheap stock, Toast is now trading at a ~37x forward adjusted EBITDA multiple for ~40% expected EBITDA growth in FY25. Toast's Q4 revenue and ARR saw acceleration to a ~30% clip, despite a tough macro environment for restaurants. The company's expansion to hotels and retail is another reason to buy Toast while it's still in the early stages of capturing more of its $110 billion global market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
Toast: High Performing, But I Fear It's Overvalued
Summary Toast has shown impressive revenue growth and deep market penetration in recent years, but I feel the valuation is a concern. While the company benefits from strong industry tailwinds and a robust SaaS model, competition from other firms presents a major challenge. Given these factors, I recommend a hold rating on the company, while waiting for answers on the uncertainty in the sector and beyond. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 03
Toast Is More Than Just A Point-Of-Sale Company -- That's Why It's A Buy
Summary Toast is growing fast, with revenue up 26% year-over-year and more restaurants using its platform. Toast, Inc. posted its first positive operating income but is not yet consistently GAAP profitable. Payments and software subscriptions drive recurring revenue, making Toast's business model more predictable. Free cash flow is improving, meaning Toast no longer needs to raise money to fund growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 17
Toast: Strong Cash Position, Weak Near-Term Confidence
Summary I’m concerned about Toast’s ability to differentiate itself in a crowded market with competitors like Square and Clover. The risks associated with international expansion and its long payback period make me hesitant. While new products like branded apps and SMS marketing show promise, it’s unclear how much they’ll drive profitability. The restaurant industry’s economic challenges could dampen Toast’s growth, especially among smaller businesses. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 27
Toast: Hold Your Nose And Buy This Leader
Summary Toast, Inc.'s recent pullback is seen as a temporary pause, with technical indicators favoring a bullish outlook, making it a Buy. The company's strong revenue and EPS growth, driven by operating leverage and customer expansion, support its growth phase. Risks include potential revenue growth disappointments, macroeconomic factors affecting restaurant spending, and stock dilution impacting EPS. Despite a high forward P/E of 49X, TOST stock's valuation is justified by its robust growth outlook, making it a Buy rather than a Strong Buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 15
Toast: Profitability Doesn't Justify The Multiple (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Toast's stock was initially rated a "strong buy" due to rapid revenue growth, improved gross margins, and favorable valuation metrics. Despite achieving GAAP profitability and significant growth in key performance indicators, the stock's valuation has become unattractive. Given the elevated valuation, I am updating my rating from a "strong buy" to a "hold" despite the company's continued innovation and growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 24
Toast: Fantastic Performance, Terrible Price (Rating Downgrade)
Summary With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, it's crucial to review portfolios and consider trimming overvalued stocks like Toast to protect YTD gains. Toast has surged 130%+ this year, but its sharp rise may already reflect its strengths, prompting a downgrade to neutral despite strong Q3 results that featured no growth deceleration. Despite Toast's $110 billion TAM and international growth potential, risks like low gross margins and competition from Square and Clover persist. The stock is richly valued at ~38x forward adjusted EBITDA and ~48x forward P/E. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| TOST | US Diversified Financial | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 0.8% | -0.03% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | -19.5% | 0.7% | 19.9% |
Return vs Industry: TOST underperformed the US Diversified Financial industry which returned 0.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: TOST underperformed the US Market which returned 19.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| TOST volatility | |
|---|---|
| TOST Average Weekly Movement | 6.0% |
| Diversified Financial Industry Average Movement | 6.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: TOST has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: TOST's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 6,500 | Aman Narang | www.pos.toasttab.com |
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally. It offers a platform of software-as-a-service for restaurant operations and point of sale, such as Toast POS; Toast IQ, a conversational artificial intelligence; vendor management; multi-location management; kitchen display system; online ordering and delivery. It offers payroll and team management; inventory and supply chain tools; xtraCHEF by toast, a set of back-office tools for restaurants, including accounts payable automation, inventory management, ingredient price tracking, and recipe costing; financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, and restaurant-grade hardware.
Toast, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| TOST fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$20.36b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$486.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$6.80b |
41.3x
P/E Ratio3.0x
P/S RatioIs TOST overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| TOST income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$6.80b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$4.98b |
| Gross Profit | US$1.82b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.34b |
| Earnings | US$486.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.84 |
| Gross Margin | 26.79% |
| Net Profit Margin | 7.14% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did TOST perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/08/14 04:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/08/14 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Toast, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Koning | Baird |
| Harshita Rawat | Bernstein |
| Andrew Bauch | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |