MediaAlpha Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
MediaAlpha is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17.8% and 7.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 237.2% in 3 years.
Key information
17.8%
Earnings growth rate
19.61%
EPS growth rate
| Interactive Media and Services earnings growth | 12.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.3% |
| Future return on equity | 237.20% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 03 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 05
MAX: AI Shopping Rollout Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their price target on MediaAlpha broadly unchanged at about $13.71, citing steady assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, even as they make slight adjustments to discount rate inputs. What's in the News MediaAlpha issued earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2026, with expected revenue in a range of US$290 million to US$310 million, and described this as a 19% year-over-year change at the midpoint of the range.Narrative Update • May 21
MAX: Future AI Rollout And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target for MediaAlpha to $13.71 from $15.64, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and forward P/E multiples. What's in the News MediaAlpha issued new earnings guidance for first quarter 2026, with expected revenue between $285 million and $305 million.Analysis Article • May 07
Shareholders Can Be Confident That MediaAlpha's (NYSE:MAX) Earnings Are High Quality
Last week's profit announcement from MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...
Narrative Update • May 06
MAX: AI Chat Rollout And Expanded Buybacks Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have maintained their $11.00 price target on MediaAlpha, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as the key drivers behind this reaffirmed view. What's in the News MediaAlpha issued revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026 of US$285 million to US$305 million, with the midpoint described as a 12% year over year increase.Narrative Update • Apr 21
MAX: AI Chat Experience And Ongoing Buybacks Will Shape Future Return Potential
Analysts now hold their price target on MediaAlpha at $11.00, with small adjustments to inputs such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that reflect fine tuning rather than a change in overall view. What's in the News MediaAlpha launched a carrier approved conversational AI application powered by ChatGPT technology for auto insurance shopping, built on its existing programmatic marketplace and designed to meet carrier compliance and brand standards (Product related announcement).Analysis Article • Apr 18
We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And MediaAlpha (NYSE:MAX) Passed With Ease
It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...Narrative Update • Apr 07
MAX: AI Shopping Platform And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts now see MediaAlpha's fair value at $11.00, down from $13.00. This reflects updated assumptions around a slightly higher discount rate, a change in expected revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E of 11.17 from 12.67.
Narrative Update • Mar 24
MAX: Share Repurchases And Higher Margins Will Support Future Profit Recovery
Narrative Update on MediaAlpha Analysts have kept their $19.00 price target for MediaAlpha unchanged, citing only slight adjustments to assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that do not materially alter their overall view of the stock. What's in the News MediaAlpha completed a share repurchase of 1,117,364 shares, representing 1.96% of the company, for $14.36 million, under the buyback program announced on October 29, 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 09
MAX: Higher Margins And Governance Reforms Will Support Future Profit Recovery
Analysts have kept their $19.00 price target for MediaAlpha unchanged, citing updated assumptions for higher revenue growth, improved profit margins, a lower future P/E multiple, and a slightly higher discount rate as key drivers behind their refreshed outlook. What's in the News MediaAlpha issued earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026, with expected revenue in the range of $285 million to $305 million.Narrative Update • Feb 23
MAX: Updated Bylaws And Governance Framework Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts kept their $13.00 price target for MediaAlpha unchanged. They cited only small adjustments in the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions as the basis for maintaining this view.Narrative Update • Feb 09
MAX: Revised Bylaws And Governance Changes Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their price target for MediaAlpha steady at US$13.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E that, in their view, still point to the same fair value level. What's in the News The Board approved an amendment and restatement of MediaAlpha, Inc.'s bylaws on December 10, 2025, with immediate effect.Analysis Article • Feb 06
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE:MAX) Not Doing Enough For Some Investors As Its Shares Slump 29%
The MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 29...Narrative Update • Jan 26
MAX: Buyback Program And Revised Bylaws Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have maintained their price target for MediaAlpha at US$13.00, incorporating updated assumptions that reflect revised views on revenue growth, profit margins and the appropriate discount rate applied to future earnings. What's in the News Board approves an amendment and restatement of MediaAlpha's bylaws on December 10, 2025, updating rules around stockholder meetings, proxy usage, director elections, and removing certain litigation cost provisions (company filing).Narrative Update • Jan 11
MAX: Share Repurchases And Governance Changes Will Support Future Profit Recovery
Analysts have maintained their price target for MediaAlpha at US$19.00. They cite updated assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate, lower expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, which together support keeping the prior valuation level unchanged.Narrative Update • Dec 26
MAX: Share Repurchases Will Likely Support Improving Profit Margins Ahead
Analysts have nudged their price target on MediaAlpha higher from 18 dollars to 19 dollars, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple outlook, despite a modestly higher discount rate. What's in the News Board approves amended and restated bylaws on December 10, 2025, updating stockholder meeting procedures, director nomination rules, and aligning with recent Delaware corporate law changes (company filing) New share repurchase program authorizes up to 50 million dollars of Class A common stock to be bought back by the end of 2026 (company announcement) Company issues fourth quarter 2025 guidance for revenue of 280 million dollars to 300 million dollars, implying about a 4 percent year over year decline at the midpoint (company guidance) Board of Directors authorizes a share buyback plan on October 28, 2025, laying the groundwork for the subsequent 50 million dollar repurchase program (board resolution) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has risen slightly, increasing from 18 dollars to 19 dollars per share.Seeking Alpha • Dec 16
MediaAlpha's Unique Business Makes It A Standout Among Peers
Summary MediaAlpha is a high-growth, business-to-business financial marketplace distinct from consumer-facing peers like EverQuote, NerdWallet, and LendingTree. MAX delivered 122% YoY revenue growth in 2024, with positive operating cash flow and rapid net income growth when adjusted for one-time legal expenses. Q3 2025 EPS reached $0.26 versus $0.17 YoY, driven by strong auto insurance demand; Q4 guidance: $280–$300M revenue, $27.5–$29.5M adjusted EBITDA. Insider ownership is solid at 9% of Class A shares, but MAX’s higher debt profile tempers any premium valuation versus peers. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Dec 12
MAX: Buyback Program And Stable Outlook Will Shape Balanced Return Profile
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on MediaAlpha to $13.00. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate and a lower future earnings multiple that more than offset improved revenue growth and profit margin assumptions.Analysis Article • Mar 19
MediaAlpha, Inc.'s (NYSE:MAX) Stock Retreats 26% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand...
New Narrative • Feb 25
I Will Capitalize On P&C Insurance And Medicare Advantage Opportunities
Strategic investments in data science and business expansion aim to enhance efficiencies, supporting net margin improvements through better cost management.Analysis Article • Nov 12
MediaAlpha's (NYSE:MAX) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point
Even though MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) posted strong earnings, investors appeared to be underwhelmed. We did some...Analysis Article • Nov 01
MediaAlpha, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 40%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) just kicked off its latest third-quarter results with some very strong...Analysis Article • Jul 04
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE:MAX) Stock's 28% Dive Might Signal An Opportunity But It Requires Some Scrutiny
MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28...Analysis Article • May 08
Brokers Are Upgrading Their Views On MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE:MAX) With These New Forecasts
MediaAlpha, Inc. ( NYSE:MAX ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,461 | 83 | 152 | 153 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,368 | 74 | 127 | 128 | 8 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,262 | 59 | 96 | 96 | 8 |
| 3/31/2026 | 1,159 | 39 | 40 | 40 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,114 | 26 | 65 | 66 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,123 | -1 | 87 | 88 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,076 | -7 | 71 | 72 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,002 | 16 | 67 | 68 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 865 | 17 | 45 | 46 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 681 | 10 | 36 | 37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 497 | -13 | 27 | 27 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 403 | -31 | 9 | 9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 388 | -40 | 20 | 20 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 395 | -65 | 8 | 8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 409 | -66 | 24 | 25 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 428 | -61 | 32 | 33 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 459 | -58 | 28 | 28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 497 | -33 | 57 | 57 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 560 | -22 | 54 | 55 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 614 | -13 | 46 | 46 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 645 | -5 | 28 | 29 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 674 | -32 | 18 | 19 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 673 | -23 | 6 | 6 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 639 | -13 | 34 | 35 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 585 | -4 | 51 | 51 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 521 | 16 | 50 | 50 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 480 | 19 | 47 | 48 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 442 | 9 | 22 | 22 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 408 | N/A | N/A | 22 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 297 | N/A | N/A | 23 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MAX's forecast earnings growth (17.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: MAX's earnings (17.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.9% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MAX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: MAX's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MAX's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MAX's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (237.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/11 03:52 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
MediaAlpha, Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Zaremski | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Maria Ripps | Canaccord Genuity |
| Daniel Grosslight | Citigroup Inc |