Loading...
Back to narrative

MAX: Buyback Program And Stable Outlook Will Shape Balanced Return Profile

Regulatory Risks Will Burden Insurance But Technology Will Revive Outlook

MAX logo
MAX
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 29 Jul 2025

Update shared on 12 Dec 2025

n/a
n/a
AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
n/a
Loading
1Y
21.0%
7D
-0.5%

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on MediaAlpha to $13.00. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate and a lower future earnings multiple that more than offset improved revenue growth and profit margin assumptions.

What's in the News

  • MediaAlpha authorized a share repurchase program of up to $50 million in Class A common stock, with completion targeted by the end of 2026 (company announcement).
  • The Board of Directors approved the new buyback plan on October 28, 2025, indicating confidence in the company’s valuation and capital return strategy (board resolution).
  • MediaAlpha issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance, projecting revenue between $280 million and $300 million, a 4% year over year decline at the midpoint (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at $13.00 per share, as offsetting valuation drivers net to a stable intrinsic value assessment.
  • Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.56% to 8.69%, reflecting a modestly higher required return on equity.
  • Revenue Growth: Raised modestly from about 3.1% to 3.6% annually, indicating a somewhat more optimistic top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: Increased slightly from roughly 5.2% to 5.9%, incorporating incremental operating leverage and efficiency gains.
  • Future P/E: Reduced significantly from about 19.6x to 13.8x, reflecting a more conservative valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Have other thoughts on MediaAlpha?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.