Century Aluminum (CENX) Stock Overview
Produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
CENX Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 36 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Century Aluminum Company Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$60.91 |
| 52 Week High | US$70.43 |
| 52 Week Low | US$16.59 |
| Beta | 1.92 |
| 1 Month Change | 3.40% |
| 3 Month Change | 4.89% |
| 1 Year Change | 204.85% |
| 3 Year Change | 540.48% |
| 5 Year Change | 353.87% |
| Change since IPO | 347.05% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Power Costs Will Support Future Cash Flows
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analysts have lifted their price targets on Century Aluminum by up to $18, citing updated supply and demand work that points to a wider projected aluminum supply deficit in 2026 and ongoing support from high electricity costs that keep alternative power uses, such as data centers, competitive. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on how a tighter aluminum supply outlook and high electricity costs could feed into Century Aluminum's earnings power and valuation over the next few years.Seeking Alpha • Jun 03
Century Aluminum: The Rally Still Has Plenty Fuel
Summary Century Aluminum (CENX) remains a Buy, with ~50% upside potential over 12-16 months driven by industry structural deficits and strong aluminum pricing. CENX’s Q1 adjusted EBITDA surged 35% QoQ to $231 million, with Q2 guidance of $315–335 million and a run-rate potentially exceeding $400 million. Long-term catalysts include a 40% stake in a new US smelter JV with EGA and anticipated share buybacks as CAPEX needs ease from 2H 2026 onward. Energy costs and tariff policy remain the chief risks, but the stock's current valuation already assumes too little durability in today's aluminum squeeze scenario overall. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 23
CENX: Section 232 Premiums And Supply Shocks Will Support Future Cash Flows
Analysts lifted the Century Aluminum price target by $0.67 to $80.00, citing updated views on aluminum supply and demand, an expected margin profile, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple in their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Century Aluminum points to a mix of optimism around earnings power and project execution, alongside caution about costs and long term assumptions embedded in current valuations.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Power Costs Will Support Future Cash Flows
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analysts have lifted their price targets on Century Aluminum by up to $18, citing updated supply and demand work that points to a wider projected aluminum supply deficit in 2026 and ongoing support from high electricity costs that keep alternative power uses, such as data centers, competitive. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on how a tighter aluminum supply outlook and high electricity costs could feed into Century Aluminum's earnings power and valuation over the next few years.Seeking Alpha • Jun 03
Century Aluminum: The Rally Still Has Plenty Fuel
Summary Century Aluminum (CENX) remains a Buy, with ~50% upside potential over 12-16 months driven by industry structural deficits and strong aluminum pricing. CENX’s Q1 adjusted EBITDA surged 35% QoQ to $231 million, with Q2 guidance of $315–335 million and a run-rate potentially exceeding $400 million. Long-term catalysts include a 40% stake in a new US smelter JV with EGA and anticipated share buybacks as CAPEX needs ease from 2H 2026 onward. Energy costs and tariff policy remain the chief risks, but the stock's current valuation already assumes too little durability in today's aluminum squeeze scenario overall. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 23
CENX: Section 232 Premiums And Supply Shocks Will Support Future Cash Flows
Analysts lifted the Century Aluminum price target by $0.67 to $80.00, citing updated views on aluminum supply and demand, an expected margin profile, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple in their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Century Aluminum points to a mix of optimism around earnings power and project execution, alongside caution about costs and long term assumptions embedded in current valuations.Narrative Update • Apr 20
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs Will Support Future Cash Flows
Century Aluminum's updated analyst price target has moved from $66 to about $79, with analysts pointing to refreshed views on fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions as key drivers of the shift. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Century Aluminum clusters around higher price targets and updated views on earnings power, with analysts reworking their models for aluminum pricing, premiums and upcoming capital spending.Narrative Update • Apr 06
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Oklahoma Smelter Plans Will Shape Future Cash Flows
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analyst Targets Analysts have lifted their average price target on Century Aluminum to $69. They cite updated supply and demand work that points to a wider projected aluminum deficit, firm Midwest Premiums, and potential earnings support from elevated power costs and new smelter plans in Oklahoma.Narrative Update • Mar 22
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs Will Support Future Cash Flows For Oklahoma Project
Century Aluminum's updated fair value estimate of $66, up from $63.33, reflects analysts' higher price targets in the $68 to $69 range as they factor in tighter aluminum supply, firm Midwest premiums, and anticipated EBITDA strength ahead of new smelter investments. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows bullish analysts lifting their price targets into the high $60s as they factor in updated aluminum market views and company specific guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 07
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Oklahoma Smelter Project Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analyst Price Target Shift The analyst price target for Century Aluminum has moved from about $59 to roughly $63. Analysts point to stronger Q1 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $215 million to $235 million and expectations for solid cash generation supported by elevated Midwest Premiums ahead of new smelter capex in Oklahoma.Narrative Update • Feb 20
CENX: Revised Risk Assumptions And Tariffs Will Shape Bullish Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum by $27 to $59, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, margins, and future P/E that refine their view of the stock’s valuation and risk profile. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around the new US$59 price target focuses less on short term trading moves and more on how updated assumptions about discount rates, margins, and future P/E feed into Century Aluminum’s longer term risk and reward profile.Narrative Update • Feb 05
CENX: Updated Assumptions Around Margins And Risk Will Drive Bullish Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$50 to US$59, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that they report are reflected in recent research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher US$59 target as better aligned with their updated assumptions on revenue growth, indicating they now model a stronger earnings power for Century Aluminum than in prior research.
New Narrative • Jan 29
Bullish View Expects New U.S. Greenfield Smelter To Transform Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About Century Aluminum Century Aluminum produces primary aluminum and related products for customers in the U.S. and Europe. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Jan 29
Earnings Tell The Story For Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) As Its Stock Soars 26%
Century Aluminum Company ( NASDAQ:CENX ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Jan 21
CENX: Emissions Exemption And Updated Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Return Profile
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$40 to US$50. They cite updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, which they believe better reflect the stock's current risk and return profile.Narrative Update • Jan 06
CENX: Emissions Exemption And Operational Disruption Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects
Analysts have revised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$36 to US$40, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that result in a higher estimated fair value. What's in the News U.S. President Donald Trump granted a two year compliance exemption from a Biden era rule that had imposed stricter limits on copper smelter emissions, with Century Aluminum mentioned alongside other listed peers in the aluminum space (Reuters).Narrative Update • Dec 14
CENX: Supportive Trade Tariffs Will Drive Future Pricing Power And Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum to $37 from $36, citing stronger than expected aluminum pricing driven by resilient China demand and the company’s leverage to supportive U.S. trade tariffs. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight that recent aluminum prices have outpaced prior forecasts, supporting upward revisions to revenue and EBITDA expectations and justifying the higher price target.Narrative Update • Nov 29
CENX: Power Agreement Extension and 50% Tariff Support Will Drive Future Gains
Analysts have reaffirmed Century Aluminum's fair value target at $36.00, citing improving profit margins and favorable aluminum market conditions as key factors that support their outlook. Analyst Commentary Analyst opinions regarding Century Aluminum's prospects reflect a careful balance of optimism about the company’s positioning in the current market environment and caution around certain industry trends.Narrative Update • Nov 15
CENX: Aluminum Price Strength and 50% Tariff Support Will Drive Upside Momentum
Century Aluminum's analyst price target has been increased from $30.67 to $36.00. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected aluminum prices and favorable tariff impacts as key factors behind the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 01
CENX: Recent Tariff Expansions And China Demand Will Shape Aluminum Outlook
Analysts have reduced Century Aluminum’s fair value estimate by $1.00 to $30.67 per share, citing shifting aluminum price trends, slightly higher discount rates, and recent research highlighting both supportive tariffs as well as stronger-than-expected demand in China. Analyst Commentary Industry experts have weighed in on Century Aluminum’s outlook, leading to new research coverage and updated valuations.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum to $31.67 from $29, citing stronger aluminum prices and improved profit margin forecasts as key drivers for the update. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Century Aluminum reflect evolving perspectives on the company’s future, with notable shifts in analyst sentiment following improved market conditions for aluminum and company-specific advantages.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum from $27 to $29 per share. They cite improved revenue growth outlook and favorable market updates as key factors behind the revision.Analysis Article • Sep 20
Investors Appear Satisfied With Century Aluminum Company's (NASDAQ:CENX) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%
Despite an already strong run, Century Aluminum Company ( NASDAQ:CENX ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of...Narrative Update • Sep 10
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
The upward revision in Century Aluminum's price target reflects stronger fundamentals, with analysts now expecting both higher revenue growth and improved net profit margins, resulting in a new consensus fair value of $27.00. What's in the News Canada is expected to maintain its 25% import tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum products, which directly impacts Century Aluminum (CENX) (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).Narrative Update • Aug 08
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
The upward revision in Century Aluminum’s price target reflects stronger profitability, as evidenced by the notable improvement in net profit margin and a more attractive forward P/E, raising the fair value estimate from $22.50 to $25.50. What's in the News Century Aluminum will restart over 50,000MT of idled production at its Mt. Holly, SC smelter, investing $50 million and creating 100+ new jobs.Analysis Article • Aug 06
The Return Trends At Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) Look Promising
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...Seeking Alpha • Apr 24
Century Aluminum's Long-Term Strategy Is Solid But Economic Uncertainty Weighs
Summary Growing US protectionism is validating Century Aluminum's strategy of high domestic US production levels. Century has a solid strategy of vertical and horizontal integration, which includes its Jamalco acquisition and planned new US smelter. The Midwest Premium continues to rise, but macroeconomic concerns and investor caution may impact the stock price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 02
Century Aluminum: A Value-Oriented Trump Trade
Summary Trump's tariffs on aluminum are set to transform the earnings power of Century Aluminum, causing a potential tripling of pre-tax profits. After the company's transformation, I believe it is worth $91 per share given the analog of BlueScope Steel. I recommend investors buy CENX stock, given its discount to estimated fair value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 14
Green Economy And Debt Reduction Fuel Growth, Yet Shrinking Margins And Market Challenges Loom Ahead
Strategic government actions and a favorable market for aluminum due to electrification and lightweighting trends are expected to positively impact Century Aluminum's revenue.Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Century Aluminum Remains Sensitive To Highly Competitive Market
Summary Century Aluminum's Q1 net income was driven by a one-time gain, not ongoing profitability, making its current valuation misleading. The company’s operations are highly sensitive to aluminum prices and raw material costs, posing significant risks. Century Aluminum's heavy reliance on a single customer and lack of cash reserves limit its flexibility and growth potential. Despite recent optimism, without a clear catalyst, the stock is overvalued compared to industry peers and is best viewed as a hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 10
Century Aluminum: Looming Capex Requirements And Weak Fundamentals
Summary Century Aluminum's stock price has increased by 89% YoY, most likely due to a spike in LME aluminum prices. In my view, the underlying company fundamentals are poor and do not justify a sustained outperformance compared to its peers at the moment. A simple model suggests a ~26% downside to the stock's fair-value. However, the strong correlation with spot aluminum markets suggests a short position could be a speculative bet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| CENX | US Metals and Mining | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -11.4% | -10.1% | -3.3% |
| 1Y | 204.9% | 71.2% | 22.3% |
Return vs Industry: CENX exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 70.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CENX exceeded the US Market which returned 22.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CENX volatility | |
|---|---|
| CENX Average Weekly Movement | 9.7% |
| Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.6% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: CENX has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: CENX's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2,906 | Jesse Gary | centuryaluminum.com |
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces primary aluminum and alumina in the United States and Iceland. The company engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products. It also owns and operates a carbon anode production facility in Vlissingen, the Netherlands; and operates aluminum reduction facilities or smelters; and bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica.
Century Aluminum Company Fundamentals Summary
| CENX fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$6.27b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$349.30m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$2.54b |
17.3x
P/E Ratio2.4x
P/S RatioIs CENX overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CENX income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$2.54b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$2.23b |
| Gross Profit | US$309.50m |
| Other Expenses | -US$39.80m |
| Earnings | US$349.30m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 3.53 |
| Gross Margin | 12.17% |
| Net Profit Margin | 13.73% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 42.5% |
How did CENX perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/09 18:01 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Century Aluminum Company is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Gagliano | Barclays |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |
| Alexander Robert Pearce | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |