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GFL Environmental Inc.

TSX:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$23.9b

GFL Environmental (GFL) Stock Overview

Provides non-hazardous solid waste management and environmental services in Canada and the United States. More details

GFL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 32.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.98% per year

Risk Analysis

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months


GFL Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 22 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

GFL logo
GFL Environmental
AN
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts

Urbanization And Circular Economy Will Fuel Environmental Transformation

Key Takeaways Robust pricing power and market densification position GFL for sustained margin expansion and earnings quality improvements beyond current projections. Strategic leadership in circular economy initiatives and advanced recovery infrastructure enables GFL to capture high-margin growth and lower long-term capital costs.
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CA$87.00
FV
25.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
2.93%
Revenue growth p.a.
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5 days ago author updated this narrative
GFL logo
GFL Environmental
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts

Investments In Sustainability And M&A Will Drive Future Margin Expansion

Key Takeaways Strategic focus on durable price-cost spread, sustainability investments, and M&A activity aims to drive margin and revenue growth, enhancing shareholder value. Balance sheet improvements and operational efficiencies are set to optimize platform operations and strengthen earnings per share.
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CA$68.72
FV
5.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
-0.84%
Revenue growth p.a.
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13users have followed this narrative
5 days ago author updated this narrative
GFL logo
GFL Environmental
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts

Decarbonization Policies Will Disrupt Legacy Waste Revenue Streams

Key Takeaways Accelerating sustainability policies and new waste technologies threaten GFL's traditional business model, eroding market share and compressing earnings over time. Heightened environmental scrutiny, legacy debt, and rising compliance costs increase financial risk, limiting flexibility for investment and pressuring shareholder returns.
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CA$39.86
FV
63.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
-2.58%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
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5 days ago author updated this narrative
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GFL Environmental Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for GFL Environmental
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$65.06
52 Week HighCA$71.82
52 Week LowCA$51.27
Beta1.0
1 Month Change-4.44%
3 Month Change5.10%
1 Year Change21.20%
3 Year Change99.94%
5 Year Change154.14%
Change since IPO190.45%

Recent News & Updates

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Jun 22
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Recent updates

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Jun 22
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Shares Could Be 25% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

We Think Some Shareholders May Hesitate To Increase GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) CEO Compensation

May 07
We Think Some Shareholders May Hesitate To Increase GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) CEO Compensation

These 4 Measures Indicate That GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Mar 20
These 4 Measures Indicate That GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Mar 03
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

What Does GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) Share Price Indicate?

Feb 18
What Does GFL Environmental Inc.'s (TSE:GFL) Share Price Indicate?

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

Jan 12
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL)

GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Dec 21
GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
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Renewable Strategies And Tactical Divestitures Propel Growth And Financial Resilience

GFL's strategy of focusing on recycling and renewable natural gas is driving revenue and earnings growth through disciplined pricing and operational efficiencies.

We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Nov 01
We Think GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

An Intrinsic Calculation For GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued

Jul 12
An Intrinsic Calculation For GFL Environmental Inc. (TSE:GFL) Suggests It's 27% Undervalued

Shareholder Returns

GFLCA Commercial ServicesCA Market
7D-5.4%-1.4%1.4%
1Y21.2%19.6%19.9%

Return vs Industry: GFL exceeded the Canadian Commercial Services industry which returned 19.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GFL exceeded the Canadian Market which returned 19.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GFL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GFL volatility
GFL Average Weekly Movement3.9%
Commercial Services Industry Average Movement6.6%
Market Average Movement9.3%
10% most volatile stocks in CA Market18.3%
10% least volatile stocks in CA Market3.6%

Stable Share Price: GFL has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the Canadian market.

Volatility Over Time: GFL's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200720,000Patrick Dovigigflenv.com

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management and environmental services in Canada and the United States. The company operates through Solid Waste and Environmental Services segments. It offers hauling, landfill, transfer, and material recovery facilities; and liquid waste management and soil remediation services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.

GFL Environmental Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do GFL Environmental's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GFL fundamental statistics
Market capCA$23.86b
Earnings (TTM)-CA$813.50m
Revenue (TTM)CA$7.99b
3.0x
P/S Ratio
-29.3x
P/E Ratio

Is GFL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
GFL income statement (TTM)
RevenueCA$7.99b
Cost of RevenueCA$6.45b
Gross ProfitCA$1.54b
Other ExpensesCA$2.35b
Earnings-CA$813.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2025

Next Earnings Date

Jul 30, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)-2.22
Gross Margin19.24%
Net Profit Margin-10.18%
Debt/Equity Ratio84.7%

How did GFL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.1%
Current Dividend Yield
-3%
Payout Ratio

Does GFL pay a reliable dividends?

See GFL dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy GFL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
GFL Environmental dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateJul 14 2025
Dividend Pay DateJul 31 2025
Days until Ex dividend6 days
Days until Dividend pay date23 days

Does GFL pay a reliable dividends?

See GFL dividend history and benchmarks

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/07/07 12:04
End of Day Share Price 2025/07/04 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets
Moses SuttonBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays