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US$65
FV
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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US$125.56
28.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15% p.a.
Profit Margin
31%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2031
US$189.3
US$27.88
22.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
-3% p.a.
Profit Margin
11.96%
Future PE
30.21x
Price in 2029
US$35.65
CA$2.5
85.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
13.55%
Future PE
16.76x
Price in 2031
CA$3.63
US$120.07
71.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
65% p.a.
Profit Margin
50%
Future PE
40x
Price in 2029
US$155.36
US$307
12.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Fair Value of $307 is based on a 5-year model: 13.5% revenue CAGR, 17.5% target margins, an 8.5% discount rate, and a premium 28x terminal P/E. At $355, the stock trades at a 15% premium.