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CA$5.25
FV
37.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
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US$82.03
FV
30.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.71%
Revenue growth p.a.
280
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6users have liked this narrative
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US$50.96
70.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
================================================================================ INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF) CALCULATION BREAKDOWN — NASDAQ:DLO ================================================================================ Target Fair Value: USD 50.96 Current Stock Price: USD 15.24 Market Assessment: 70.1% Undervalued / +234.2% Upside Potential -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. MARKET METRICS RECONCILIATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Undervaluation Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Fair Value (50.96 - 15.24) / 50.96 = 0.7008 -> 70.1% * Upside Potential Formula: (Fair Value - Current Price) / Current Price (50.96 - 15.24) / 15.24 = 2.3425 -> +234.2% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. DISCOUNT RATE / COST OF EQUITY (CAPM) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Risk-Free Rate + (Beta * Equity Risk Premium) * Inputs: Risk-Free Rate = 4.25% Beta = 1.10 ERP = 5.00% * Calculation: 4.25% + (1.10 * 5.00%) = 4.25% + 5.50% = 9.75% (Rounded to 9.8%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. 10-YEAR CASH FLOW FORECAST ARCHITECTURE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Base Year Free Cash Flow (FCF0): USD 437.59M (USD 1.4837 per share) * Shares Outstanding: 294.93m (Market Cap 4.50B / Price 15.24) * FCF Margin: 40.0% * Growth Rate Fading Schedule: - Year 1: +25.00% FCF USD 546.99M - Years 2-10: Linear reduction from +25.00% down to +2.50% - Year 10: +2.50% FCF USD 1.56B - Year 11+: +2.50% (Terminal Perpetual Growth Rate) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. MATHEMATICAL STEPS TO INTRINSIC VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Step A: Present Value of Discrete Cash Flows (Years 1 to 10) PV_Cash_Flows = Sum [ FCF_t / (1 + 0.0975)^t ] for t = 1 to 10 PV_Cash_Flows = USD 6.35B * Step B: Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model at Year 10) TV_10 = [ FCF_10 * (1 + 0.0250) ] / (0.0975 - 0.0250) TV_10 = [ 1.56B * 1.0250 ] / 0.0725 = USD 21.99B * Step C: Discount the Terminal Value to Present Day PV_TV = 21.99B / (1 + 0.0975)^10 = 21.99B / 2.5354 PV_TV = USD 8.67B * Step D: Equity Value and Fair Value per Share Equity Value = 6.35B + 8.67B = USD 15.03B Fair Value = 15.03B / 294.93m = USD 50.96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. FUTURE P/E MULTIPLE BLENDED BENCHMARK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Formula: Sum of (Multiple * Re-normalized Weight) * Inputs: Forward Multiple: 17.1x @ 45% Weight Peer Median (n=31): 20.2x @ 35% Weight Current Multiple: 22.7x @ 20% Weight * Calculation: (17.1 * 0.45) + (20.2 * 0.35) + (22.7 * 0.20) = 7.684 + 7.077 + 4.540 = 19.301x (Rounded to 19.3x) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. SENSITIVITY OF THE FAIR VALUE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Growth +22.0% -> 45.47 | +25.0% -> 50.96 | +28.0% -> 50.96 * Discount 8.75% -> 60.09 | 9.75% -> 50.96 | 10.75% -> 44.07 ================================================================================
US$179.83
17.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
6% p.a.
Profit Margin
25%
Future PE
24x
Price in 2031
US$278.56
₦3
56.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
10.55% p.a.
Profit Margin
16.39%
Future PE
9.34x
Price in 2029
₦6.29