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EBIT-margin trajectory: Historical: 2.3 % → 3.6 % (FY 22/23) ​, down to – 2 % (FY 23/24) ​, back to 3 % in Q1 24/25 ​ Forecast: Gradual recovery to 4–6 % by FY 25/26, reaching 6–8 % by FY 29/30 Revenue growth: Historical: + 70 % (FY 22/23) ​, + 30 % (FY 23/24) ​, + 27 % (Q1 24/25) ​ Forecast: ~ 15 % CAGR over the next five years (FY 24/25–29/30) Five-year share-price goal: Current fair value: € 8.5–9.0 per share Five-year target: € 14–15 per share (≈ 1.9 bn EUR market cap) Enterprise value (EV) outlook (DCF-based): Revenues rising to ~ 1.8 bn EUR by FY 29/30 EBIT of ~ 145 m EUR (8 % margin) → NOPAT ~ 102 m EUR FCF margin ~ 5 % → ~ 90 m EUR FCF Terminal-value multiple: EV/FCF = 15 → TV ~ 1.35 bn EUR Discounted EV: ≈ 1.18 bn EUR + net cash 0.69 bn EUR → ≈ 1.87 bn EUR → ~ 14.8 EUR/share Top risks: execution delays, margin pressure from competition, raw-material cost swings, subsidy uncertainty, heavy capex needs Narrative Outlook Over the next five years, thyssenkrupp nucera is poised to leverage its unique position at the intersection of mature Chlor-Alkali expertise and rapid Green-Hydrogen adoption. After a transitional phase in FY 23/24 with negative margins driven by upfront investments, the company’s shift toward series-manufactured AWE modules and high-growth project backlog supports a steady margin recovery.

Full disclosure. I am a shareholder at the time of writing this.

Over the coming decade, two forces converge to transform Vossloh’s prospects: Germany’s unprecedented €500 billion infrastructure fund and the strategic bolt-on of Sateba, Europe’s leading concrete-sleeper maker. Together they unlock fresh markets, deepen Vossloh’s moat, and set the stage for multi-year revenue and earnings growth.

Catalysts Most Immediate Catalysts (1–2 Years) Increased Demand for Fiber Networks: As broadband penetration and 5G rollout accelerate across Europe and the Nordics, operators are investing in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and backhaul infrastructure—directly benefiting Hexatronic’s product portfolio. Strategic Partnerships & Contracts: Recent contracts with major telecom operators and network integrators boost short-term revenue visibility and enhance Hexatronic’s market presence.

Q1 2025 Update Decent revenue and earnings report, numbers supporting a mean reversion play on multiple. Catalysts Strong Pricing Power: Consistent improvement in gross margins, rising from mid-15% levels in early years to nearly 19% in recent projections.

Q1 2025 Update Very weak quarter both in terms of order intake 142 mUSD (also including about 30 mUSD for "as a service" orders) vs 182 last Q!, no implications for long term valuation. No need to rush in to this stock.

Vad är den ytterligare uppsidan i värderingen med en omstöpningsplan? Orkla befinner sig mitt i ett stort strategiskt skifte - att bryta upp sin konglomeratstruktur och fokusera på kärntillgångarna.

Tillväxten i flottan sjunker, tillväxten i handeln stiger Q4-siffrorna var bättre än väntat tack vare lägre kostnader. Vi anser att utsikterna för LPG-handeln är starka med en förväntad handelstillväxt på 5,5 procent per år under 2025-26 (genomsnitt 2014-24: 7 procent per år), stärkt av export-tillväxten i USA och Mellanöstern.

Avtal om samgående med CMB.TECH Efter stängningen i New York igår meddelade det belgiska shippingkonglomeratet CMB.TECH (Vi har en Behåll-rekommendation med en riktkurs 8,75 EUR), att det har tecknat ett avtal med avsikt att gå samman med Golden Ocean. Det offentliggjorda utbytesförhållandet är 0,95/1 CMB.TECH-aktie/Golden Ocean-aktie och baseras på ett substansvärde på 15,23 USD respektive 14,49 USD, vilket kan jämföras med våra senast publicerade substansvärde på 14,7 USD respektive 14,1 USD (baserat på siffrorna i Q4) och ett implicit utbytesförhållande om 0,96/1.