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Global Weekly Picks
Airbnb
TI
TickerTickle
Community Contributor
Airbnb (ABNB): Still one of the most interesting bets in travel
Key insights Airbnb is changing from a travel-only app to a full lifestyle platform (stays, rentals, experiences) International markets are growing faster than the US, which is slowing down Product experience is improving a lot, with AI making search and booking easier Regulations are becoming a big risk, especially in Europe where listings are getting removed The way people move around the world has changed. It’s not only about holidays anymore.
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US$163.75
FV
23.9% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
8
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
34
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
ING Groep
PI
PittTheYounger
Community Contributor
ING leads the pack when it comes to pivoting towards non-lending income
ING, of course, is a bank; and banks don't like falling interest rates, right? For the dominant stream of income is their core business model, i.e. borrowing short-term and lending long-term, reaping the difference in interest rates in the process.
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€27.92
FV
24.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
12
users have followed this narrative
New
narrative
Coles Group
RO
Robbo
Community Contributor
Coles (ASX: COL): Safe, Steady, and Surprisingly Cheap
The supermarket chain Coles is the kind of “boring” business that may have been overlooked as an investment opportunity. Although it was divested from Wesfarmers in 2018, Coles’ heritage traces back to 1914 — giving it over 110 years of history.
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AU$22.00
FV
4.0% undervalued
intrinsic discount
8.72%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
2
users have commented on this narrative
15
users have followed this narrative
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Enphase Energy
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Market Leadership Amidst Increasing Competition Won't Hurt Solid Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways Electricity prices, incentives (tax credits, net metering) and technology advancements will drive sales. Microinverters are gaining traction but their advantage over traditional inverters is unclear.
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US$76.86
FV
55.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
24.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
2
users have commented on this narrative
11
users have followed this narrative
10 months ago
author updated this narrative
Visa
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
Regulation and Market Maturity Will Limit Earnings Growth Potential
Key Takeaways Well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of digital payments and the international market Investing heavily in B2B and cross border payments for new revenue growth Has a wide moat, and a large serviceable market, but investor expectations are already high Additionally the Credit Card Competition Act could be a major negative catalyst Risks to my narrative include stronger than expected US consumer, and increased use of Visa network from future Fintech. Catalysts The Benefits of Visa’s Global Reach Visa processes more than $11.6 trillion in gross dollar volume (GDV), made up primarily of digital payments with the remainder being things like ATM withdrawals, B2B transactions, etc.
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US$243.09
FV
40.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
9.10%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
7
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
15
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Ford Motor
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Rising Labor Costs, Tight Competition And Stricter Credit Conditions Put Pressure On EBIT
Key Takeaways Ford’s failure to launch a meaningful EV campaign will see them lose out in Europe and Asia. Increase labor costs following Union strikes will put pressure on Automotive EBIT margins Strict credit conditions over the next few years will hurt Ford’s sales volumes and financing margins Catalysts Rising Competition In EV Market Will Limit Sales Growth Trajectory Ford was one of the many manufacturers that have had to realign their focus with climate action in mind.
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US$9.70
FV
17.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
6
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
9
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Bank of America
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Underwater Bond Holdings Will Squeeze its Net Interest Margin
Key Takeaways Banks are being forced to offer higher rates to keep deposits. Lending will remain slow, which will squeeze net interest margins.
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US$44.16
FV
7.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
2.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
1
users have commented on this narrative
15
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Berkshire Hathaway
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst
The Berkshire Success Recipe: Concentrated Portfolio With Diversified Operations
Berkshire has managed to find a balance between a diversified business and an alpha-rich portfolio. The company’s efficiency is reflected in its low risk, which also limits growth.
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US$604.20k
FV
18.4% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.60%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
4
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
30
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Intel
BA
Bailey
Equity Analyst
Increased Competition In The Consumer And Commercial CPU Markets Will Impact Top Line Growth
Key Takeaways Poor thermal and energy efficiency will see Intel lose out to AMD in the server CPU market AMD and ARM will take market share from Intel in the consumer CPU segment Intel will see Notebook OEMs switching to AMD and ARM based chips for their efficiency gains Intel’s Arc GPUs won’t be able to catch up to Nvidia, leaving them without the scope to focus on AI Catalysts Struggling in the Data Center Market: Xeon SP CPUs Losing Ground As AMD Steps Up Intel's dominance in the data center CPU market has been a significant pillar of its success over the years, contributing around 30% to the company’s total sales. INTC Revenue & Earnings Breakdown - Simply Wall St However, recent trends suggest a concerning shift.
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US$19.66
FV
13.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
3.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
43
users have liked this narrative
10
users have commented on this narrative
23
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
BHP Group
ST
StjepanK
Equity Analyst and Writer
External Factors Could Keep BHP Pinned In Place
Key Takeaways A large exposure to the iron-ore market with a muted medium-term outlook leaves BHP vulnerable. The company's second-largest segment (copper) can provide growth but is at risk of prolonged higher capex.
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US$51.29
FV
6.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
21.27%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
0
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
18
users have followed this narrative
8 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Scale, Operating Leverage And Ad Plans Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Netflix ad-supported plans will drive new revenue Revenue per user will decrease in short term from ad plans, but increase longer term Margins will continue to improve as costs grow slower than revenue (operating leverage) User growth expected from password sharing crackdown I believe these 3 catalysts will result in $52bn in revenue and $12.5bn profit by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts There is Room For More Than One Streaming Platform The video streaming industry has become very competitive, and the market has been hyper focused on the question of “who will win the streaming war.” I don’t think this is a winner takes all situation, and there is room for a handful of platforms. There are pros and cons to each platform and many households end up subscribing to two or three platforms.
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US$936.00
FV
28.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
11
users have liked this narrative
3
users have commented on this narrative
22
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
MI
MichaelP
Content Lead
Industry Consolidation and Internal Initiatives Will Support Subscriber growth
Key Takeaways Possible consolidation in the streaming market will benefit NFLX with better negotiating leverage Internal initiatives of ad-plans and paid sharing will drive user and revenue growth ARPM will increase due to future price increases and advertising revenue Advertising dollars will transition from Cable TV to NFLX as its ad-supported members base grows Discipline on content costs will increase net margins and push future earnings and cash flows higher Catalysts Industry Catalysts Consolidation Of Content In The Streaming Market After 25 years of expensive growth, Netflix has now become the most dominant, profitable streaming player in the world. With 238m subscribers, trailing 12 month revenues of $32bn and cash flows of $4.6bn (all as of June 30 2023), the company has reached scale economics that allow the streaming model to work profitably.
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US$797.74
FV
51.0% overvalued
intrinsic discount
13.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set Fair Value
20
users have liked this narrative
6
users have commented on this narrative
28
users have followed this narrative
9 months ago
author updated this narrative
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