Global Community

After 41 years in the IT industry I've seen just about everything good and bad. The Good - AI will advance civilization by light years compared to the 1970s when mainframes ruled the computing world one batch process at a time.

Europe's steel demand during next 5y will rise significantly (20% CAGR) due to increased spending on defense automotive & housing revovery (2026 onwards) Ukraine's "Marshall plan" climate related infrastructure spending Energy costs in Germany to stabilize and drop due to combination of Global oversupply in major Energy related commodities, "Energie wende 2030" and to be elected (Feb25) more pro business oriented Govt. Soon to be cancelled Nippon's M&A of US Steel ($14bn deal) will provide additional valuation updrift for TKA being identifiend by us as the best / most attractive M&A target in Europe's steel business (with robust&healthy B/S).

RIG is either going to survive and boom during the next energy squeeze or it gets bought out. In the first case you get a multi-bagger.

Catalysts AI functionality is a new world Assumptions Strong brand can deliver higher revenue growth in heated/inflationary climate While AI investment will be expensive, there will be reasonable increased profit growth with productivity and functionality benefits. Risks Global economic and political climate, along with investment risk in AI, necessitates higher risk level for discount calc.

Coherus is a promising company that did a bad borrowing and has more than paid the price. Its convertible bondholders created a short hedge and have inflicted massive damage on the company's SP.

In 2024, MAB reported a significant increase in revenue and pre-tax profit, with revenue rising by 11% to around £266m and adjusted pre-tax profit growing by 31% to about £30.5m. The company has set new medium-term targets, including doubling its revenue from 2024 levels, achieving an adjusted pre-tax profit margin above 15%, exceeding 100% cash conversion, and doubling its market share.

$25 - DOW sales are in decline, they are losing money, they pay out almost all the cash they take in as dividends and stock buybacks leaving little to invest in the future. Their CEO is way overpaid given the performance of the company so what is the incentive to improve earnings?

The value of STP is to be found in: (a) the strength of its database (b) its current range of clothing (c) its ability to reach out to different gender groups (male, female and kids) (d) ability to sell into different geographical areas. (e) its marketing strategy of going directly to the consumer - repeat order sales opportunities.

Key Takeaways Dependence on a single product and increasing generic competition heighten vulnerability to revenue loss and market share erosion. Pricing pressures, restrictive reimbursement, and rising regulatory demands threaten margin sustainability and long-term profitability.