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MGPI logo
MGP Ingredients

THE KINGDOM OF BROWN GOODS: WHY MGPI IS BEING CRUSHED BY INVENTORY & PRIMED FOR RESURRECTION

Originally Posted Dec 5 on the Woodworth Contrarian News Page Brought to you by Quinn Millegan & The Woodworth Contrarian Fund A Deep Dive Into Why the Market Is Pricing MGPI for Permanent Decline When Cyclical Recovery Is Lurking in Plain Sight MGP Ingredient’s factories in Atchison, KS & Lawrenceburg, IN - MGP Ingredients Corporate THE SETUP: MEET THE STOCK THAT FELL 75% AND NOBODY NOTICED MGP Ingredients closed at $24.70 yesterday (with a 3–6% increase intraday today). Two years ago—December 4, 2023—it traded at $91.53.
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US$40
FV
35.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
1.36%
Revenue growth p.a.
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30users have followed this narrative
EVTL logo
Vertical Aerospace

Why Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL) is Worth Possibly Over 13x its Current Price

Once again, I boldly foretell a future possibility for the years ahead. Some reading this may scoff, or may laugh and move on.
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US$60
FV
90.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
19users have liked this narrative
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28users have followed this narrative
ORCL logo
Oracle

The Quiet Giant That Became AI’s Power Grid

The story of Oracle’s transformation is a narrative of strategic repositioning that has culminated in the company emerging as an indispensable infrastructure partner for the world’s most demanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads. This strategic shift, defined by massive infrastructure investment, a landmark partnership with OpenAI, and the rise of colossal superclusters, has driven an unprecedented surge in its contract backlog, fundamentally reshaping Oracle’s long-term growth trajectory and competitive landscape.
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US$389.81
FV
51.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
28.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
9users have liked this narrative
4users have commented on this narrative
49users have followed this narrative
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OGI logo
Organigram Global

Pre-Market Explosion

Organigram Holdings Inc. has seen some significant developments in the past four months: ✓ Acquisition of Motif Labs: In December 2024, Organigram acquired Motif Labs, a Canadian cannabis company, for C$90 million upfront.Read more

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CA$6.74
60.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
DailyInvestors's Fair Value
Revenue
17% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.76%
Future PE
23.1x
Price in 2029
CA$13.74
TFPM logo
Triple Flag Precious Metals

Triple Flag Precious Metals Overview and Stock Price Projection (at $4,000/oz Gold, $100/oz Silver)

Key Financials: Royalties: 236 (32 producing). 2024 Guidance: 100k–115k GEOs. 2024–2028 Average Production: 140k GEOs/year.Read more

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US$50.19
30.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Revenue
102.64% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.52%
Future PE
17.87x
Price in 2029
US$70.5

If gold reaches $4,000/oz

Key Assumptions : Havieron Production : Annual Production: 450,000 oz/year. AISC: $1,150/oz.Read more

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13users have followed this narrative
1.8
91.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Profit Margin
9.52%
Future PE
17.87x
Price in 2030
0
LUCA logo
Luca Mining

If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver reaches $100/oz

Key Assumptions : Production Guidance for 2025 : Total Production: 100,000 oz AUEQ. Metal Contribution: 50% from gold and silver, 50% from base metals.Read more

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CA$1.1
26.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Revenue
65.96% p.a.
Profit Margin
1.33%
Future PE
96.34x
Price in 2029
CA$1.83
SSL logo
Sandstorm Gold

Sandstorm Gold Overview and Stock Price Projection (at $4,000/oz Gold)

Key Financials: 2024 Forecast: 80,000 oz production; $160M cash flow. 2029 Forecast: 155,000 oz production; $250M cash flow.Read more

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CA$20
17.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Revenue
28.25% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.46%
Future PE
47.03x
Price in 2029
CA$28.26

Eagle Royalties Best Scenario

Eagle Royalties Stock Price Calculation Assumptions: Gold price: $4,000/oz Silver price: $100/oz FCF multiple: 20x Shares outstanding: 30 million (estimate) NSR portfolio production: Gold: 100,000 oz/year at 1% NSR Silver: 500,000 oz/year at 1% NSR FCF margin: 85% Step 1: NSR Revenue Calculation Gold Revenue: 100,000 oz × $4,000/oz × 1% = $4,000,000 Silver Revenue: 500,000 oz × $100/oz × 1% = $500,000 Total Revenue: $4,000,000 + $500,000 = $4,500,000 Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF: $4,500,000 × 85% = $3,825,000 Step 3: Market Cap Calculation Market Cap: $3,825,000 × 20 = $76,500,000 Step 4: Stock Price Calculation Stock Price: $76,500,000 ÷ 30,000,000 = $2.55/share Conclusion: If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver hits $100/oz , the estimated stock price for Eagle Royalties would be $2.55/share , assuming the above revenue and production scenario.Read more

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2.55
94.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Profit Margin
9.52%
Future PE
17.87x
Price in 2030
0
SAND logo
Sandstorm Gold

Sandstorm Gold Overview and Stock Price Projection (at $4,000/oz Gold)

Key Financials: 2024 Forecast: 80,000 oz production; $160M cash flow. 2029 Forecast: 155,000 oz production; $250M cash flow.Read more

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US$20
39.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Revenue
38.1% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.46%
Future PE
47x
Price in 2029
US$28.72
VOXR logo
Vox Royalty

Vox Overview and Stock Price Projection (at $4,000 Gold and $100 Silver)

Key Metrics: Royalties: Over 60, with 6 producing and 10+ expected by 2025. Revenue: 2021: $3.6M.Read more

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CA$10.98
33.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Revenue
97.21% p.a.
Profit Margin
9.52%
Future PE
17.87x
Price in 2029
CA$15.15
SGO logo
Sonoro Gold

Gold at $4,000/oz & production at 50K oz/year

Key Assumptions: Project Overview: Cerro Caliche Project : Production: 33K oz annually (average) for 9 years. Initial Capex: $15M.Read more

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CA$9.1
97.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
RockeTeller's Fair Value
Profit Margin
9.52%
Future PE
17.87x
Price in 2029
CA$0