Key Financials:
- 2024 Forecast: 80,000 oz production; $160M cash flow.
- 2029 Forecast: 155,000 oz production; $250M cash flow.
- Debt: $383M (being paid down).
- Portfolio Composition (2024 vs. 2029):
- Gold: 56% → 81%
- Silver: 14% → 4%
- Copper: 21% → 9%
Assumptions for Calculation:
- Gold price: $4,000/oz.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin: ~50% (historical margin).
- FCF Multiple: 20x.
- Shares Outstanding: 290M shares.
Step 1: Revenue Projection (2029)
- Gold Revenue (81%):
- 155,000 oz × $4,000/oz × 81% = $502.2M.
- Silver Revenue (4%):
- Estimate based on historical cash flow proportions: $25M.
- Copper Revenue (9%):
- Estimate based on historical cash flow proportions: $45M.
- Total Revenue (2029): $502.2M + $25M + $45M = $572.2M.
Step 2: FCF Estimation (2029)
- FCF Margin: 50%.
- FCF: $572.2M × 50% = $286.1M.
Step 3: Market Cap Calculation
- Market Cap: $286.1M × 20 = $5.72B.
Step 4: Stock Price Calculation
- Stock Price: $5.72B ÷ 290M shares = $19.72/share.
Conclusion:
If gold reaches $4,000/oz and Sandstorm Gold achieves its 2029 production target, the estimated stock price could be around $19.72/share.
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Disclaimer
The user RockeTeller holds no position in TSX:SSL. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
