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Key Financials:

Royalties: 236 (32 producing).
2024 Guidance: 100k–115k GEOs.
2024–2028 Average Production: 140k GEOs/year.
Current Revenue Mix:
- 74% Gold
- 20% Silver
- 6% Other
Margins: 91%.
Free Cash Flow (FCF): $163M (past 12 months).
Debt: Minimal, with a $700M credit line.
Ownership: 70% Elliott Management Investments, 5% management.

Step 1: Revenue Estimation at $4,000 Gold and $100 Silver

Gold Contribution (74% of 140k GEOs):
- Gold Production: 140,000 × 0.74 = 103,600 GEOs.
- Gold Revenue: 103,600 × $4,000 = $414.4M.
Silver Contribution (20% of 140k GEOs):
- Silver Production: 140,000 × 0.20 = 28,000 GEOs.
- Silver Revenue: 28,000 × $100 = $2.8M.
Other Metals Contribution (6% of 140k GEOs):
- Assume $1,500/oz average: 140,000 × 0.06 = 8,400 GEOs × $1,500 = $12.6M.
Total Revenue (2024–2028 Average): $414.4M + $2.8M + $12.6M = $429.8M.

Step 2: FCF Estimation

FCF Margin: 91%.
Estimated FCF: $429.8M × 91% = $391.7M.

Step 3: Market Cap Calculation

FCF Multiple: 20x.
Market Cap: $391.7M × 20 = $7.83B.

Step 4: Stock Price Calculation

Shares Outstanding: 156M shares.
Stock Price: $7.83B ÷ 156M = $50.19/share.

Conclusion:

If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver reaches $100/oz, with an average production of 140k GEOs, Triple Flag's estimated stock price could reach $50.19/share, assuming a 20x FCF multiple. This growth potential highlights its leverage to rising metal prices.

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Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller holds no position in NYSE:TFPM. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Overview and Stock Price Projection (at $4,000/oz Gold, $100/oz Silver)