Key Financials:
- Royalties: 236 (32 producing).
- 2024 Guidance: 100k–115k GEOs.
- 2024–2028 Average Production: 140k GEOs/year.
- Current Revenue Mix:
- 74% Gold
- 20% Silver
- 6% Other
- Margins: 91%.
- Free Cash Flow (FCF): $163M (past 12 months).
- Debt: Minimal, with a $700M credit line.
- Ownership: 70% Elliott Management Investments, 5% management.
Step 1: Revenue Estimation at $4,000 Gold and $100 Silver
- Gold Contribution (74% of 140k GEOs):
- Gold Production: 140,000 × 0.74 = 103,600 GEOs.
- Gold Revenue: 103,600 × $4,000 = $414.4M.
- Silver Contribution (20% of 140k GEOs):
- Silver Production: 140,000 × 0.20 = 28,000 GEOs.
- Silver Revenue: 28,000 × $100 = $2.8M.
- Other Metals Contribution (6% of 140k GEOs):
- Assume $1,500/oz average: 140,000 × 0.06 = 8,400 GEOs × $1,500 = $12.6M.
- Total Revenue (2024–2028 Average): $414.4M + $2.8M + $12.6M = $429.8M.
Step 2: FCF Estimation
- FCF Margin: 91%.
- Estimated FCF: $429.8M × 91% = $391.7M.
Step 3: Market Cap Calculation
- FCF Multiple: 20x.
- Market Cap: $391.7M × 20 = $7.83B.
Step 4: Stock Price Calculation
- Shares Outstanding: 156M shares.
- Stock Price: $7.83B ÷ 156M = $50.19/share.
Conclusion:
If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver reaches $100/oz, with an average production of 140k GEOs, Triple Flag's estimated stock price could reach $50.19/share, assuming a 20x FCF multiple. This growth potential highlights its leverage to rising metal prices.
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