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GOOG logo
Alphabet
BL
BlackGoat
BlackGoat
Community Contributor

Alphabet: The Under-appreciated Compounder Hiding in Plain Sight

Summary Google trades at ~18× forward earnings; the cheapest among the Magnificent 7 Market is too focused on AI threats to Search and antitrust noise Meanwhile, Google is executing across AI, Cloud, and YouTube Key AI differentiator: unmatched distribution across 3B+ users via Search, Gmail, YouTube, Android, Chrome, and Cloud Quietly building a world-class AI infrastructure behind the scenes; including proprietary TPUs and a vertically integrated stack YouTube generated $8.93B in Q1 ad revenue (up 10% YoY); subscriptions hit 270M Google Cloud revenue up 28% YoY to $12.3B; now profitable Optionality from long-term bets like Waymo, DeepMind, and Verily Risk/reward is compelling; a strong candidate to beat the market long term Overview Despite being part of the "Magnificent Seven," Google’s stock lags due to perceived risks around disruption of its Search business from AI competitors and mounting antitrust concerns. But under the hood, Google has quietly built one of the most compelling setups in tech: with deep AI leadership, multiple high-growth businesses, and optionality from long-term moonshots like Waymo.
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US$282.83
FV
32.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
24users have liked this narrative
3users have commented on this narrative
62users have followed this narrative
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XOM logo
Exxon Mobil
AG
Agricola
Agricola
Community Contributor

Exxon in Guyana 5 year forecast Low $135 to High $189

Previous mistake rectified. So as pointed out in the comments, Chevron won the Hess bid (rather than Exxon) and took a large portion of the Stabroek block.
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US$174.00
FV
37.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
12.97%
Revenue growth p.a.
4users have liked this narrative
4users have commented on this narrative
17users have followed this narrative
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JNJ logo
Johnson & Johnson
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

Rich Drug Pipeline Will Push Revenues and Earnings Higher

Key Takeaways Well-diversified drug pipeline with 52 drugs in late-stage approval - a good hedge for its patent expirations Kenvue spin off allows JNJ to focus on its more profitable Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals segments Continued dividend increases and buybacks are affordable and will help capital returns Post Kenvue, I expect JNJ to grow revenues by 7.5% p.a. from its new baseline of $84B, and at higher margins Some risks around litigation, patent expiry and drug success are present Catalysts Robust Drug Pipeline: 52 Drugs Racing To The Finish Line In Late-Stage Approval The key threat to a pharmaceutical stock is the patent expiration of their high value assets. Should a company lack a product pipeline to bolster its future product portfolio, then losing exclusivity to any one drug can be a hit to the business.
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US$173.55
FV
3.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
6.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
16users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
22users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
PYPL logo
PayPal Holdings
ST
StjepanK
StjepanK
Equity Analyst and Writer

PayPal’s Strong Branding Can Take Advantage Of E-Commerce Tailwind

Key Takeaways PayPal is the online payments household brand benefiting from the positive trend in the E-commerce industry. Venmo’s sub-brand is a growth driver, which could reach over $2 billion in annual revenue by 2027.
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US$111.57
FV
39.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
5.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
104users have liked this narrative
7users have commented on this narrative
32users have followed this narrative
4 months ago author updated this narrative
TSLA logo
Tesla
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

Decent Revenue Growth Won't Stop Valuation Multiple Re-rating Lower

Key Takeaways Tesla’s auto market share will grow but less than investors expect The semi will contribute $17.5B if its value proposition matches that of ICE trucks Energy revenues will reach $16.7B in 2028 as industry tailwinds support continued growth If FSD wins, it’s at risk of being shared by government safety mandates PE will re-rate lower in long term to be similar to current auto peers Business has great growth prospects, but even they don’t justify current price Catalysts Tesla’s TAM and Market Share Has Limitations In the last 4 quarters ending Q2’23, Tesla has delivered 1,638,123 vehicles. Approximately 46.8% of total sales are made in the U.S. and we can use this as a basis to estimate the number of vehicles sold in the U.S., which comes out to 766,478.
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US$177.19
FV
70.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
14.36%
Revenue growth p.a.
113users have liked this narrative
18users have commented on this narrative
28users have followed this narrative
9 months ago author updated this narrative
NVDA logo
NVIDIA
GO
Goran_Damchevski
Goran_Damchevski
Equity Analyst

An Oversupply Of Compute Power Will See Margins Recede

Key Takeaways NVIDIA facing challenges, 30% data center market share at risk from chiplets AMD, Samsung, Intel entering GPU manufacturing race at cheaper price points Largest customers producing own chips, limits market for NVIDIA Generative AI cloud solutions introduces revenue cannibalization risk Gaming market revenue share at risk of stagnating Catalysts Company Catalysts Accelerating GPU Performance Will Reduce Profitability There is an argument to be made that the rapidly accelerating performance of GPUs will unlock markets in the next 3 to 5 years, but the same technology can lead to oversupply of compute power in the long term. As recently as 2021, there was a shortage of compute power for use cases like cryptocurrency mining, which was promoted as a key growth avenue.
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US$67.95
FV
155.7% overvalued intrinsic discount
14.40%
Revenue growth p.a.
80users have liked this narrative
16users have commented on this narrative
49users have followed this narrative
8 months ago author updated this narrative
AMD logo
Advanced Micro Devices
RI
Richard_Bowman
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer

Intense Competition Will Force AMD to Sacrifice Margins In Favor of R&D Spend

Key Takeaways Revenue growth will improve and then slow due to cyclical nature of chip demand There will be an inevitable plateau in AI investment Competition between CPU and GPU producers will intensify due massive long term potential This will result in very high R&D spend by all three, particularly AMD AMD’s revenue growth accelerates then falls into single digits by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts CPU Demand Will Accelerate in 2024 and 2025, but Decelerate Again by 2028 CPU sales for the client segment is likely to accelerate rapidly as inventories have fallen and a new replacement cycle is overdue. Within the datacenter segment growth will be more measured.
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US$103.16
FV
66.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
16.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
33users have liked this narrative
2users have commented on this narrative
16users have followed this narrative
10 months ago author updated this narrative