Our community narratives are driven by numbers and valuation.
Key Financials: 2024 Forecast: 80,000 oz production; $160M cash flow. 2029 Forecast: 155,000 oz production; $250M cash flow.Read more

Eagle Royalties Stock Price Calculation Assumptions: Gold price: $4,000/oz Silver price: $100/oz FCF multiple: 20x Shares outstanding: 30 million (estimate) NSR portfolio production: Gold: 100,000 oz/year at 1% NSR Silver: 500,000 oz/year at 1% NSR FCF margin: 85% Step 1: NSR Revenue Calculation Gold Revenue: 100,000 oz × $4,000/oz × 1% = $4,000,000 Silver Revenue: 500,000 oz × $100/oz × 1% = $500,000 Total Revenue: $4,000,000 + $500,000 = $4,500,000 Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF: $4,500,000 × 85% = $3,825,000 Step 3: Market Cap Calculation Market Cap: $3,825,000 × 20 = $76,500,000 Step 4: Stock Price Calculation Stock Price: $76,500,000 ÷ 30,000,000 = $2.55/share Conclusion: If gold reaches $4,000/oz and silver hits $100/oz , the estimated stock price for Eagle Royalties would be $2.55/share , assuming the above revenue and production scenario.Read more

Key Financials: 2024 Forecast: 80,000 oz production; $160M cash flow. 2029 Forecast: 155,000 oz production; $250M cash flow.Read more

Key Metrics: Royalties: Over 60, with 6 producing and 10+ expected by 2025. Revenue: 2021: $3.6M.Read more

Key Assumptions: Project Overview: Cerro Caliche Project : Production: 33K oz annually (average) for 9 years. Initial Capex: $15M.Read more

Key Takeaways A geopolitical status quo means TSMC can remain the market leader It has a healthy balance sheet to invest in R&D and maintain its wide moat Growing industry and large repeat customers will drive double-digit revenue growth The stock has the potential to become a dividend aristocrat Catalysts Industry Catalysts Continuous Demand and Reliance on Chips Will Support Revenue The computing power accessed through microchips is only increasing. It goes beyond smart devices and data centers, and in the 2020s, it is a vital part of the global economy.Read more

Key Takeaways A large exposure to the iron-ore market with a muted medium-term outlook leaves BHP vulnerable. The company's second-largest segment (copper) can provide growth but is at risk of prolonged higher capex.Read more

GoldMining Inc. Valuation if Gold Reaches $4,000/oz Key Inputs: Gold Resources: 18M oz Gold Price: $4,000/oz Valuation per oz: $100–$200/oz (industry average for gold in the ground) Other Assets: Equity Stakes: $140M (Gold Royalty + US Gold Mining) Cash: $160M Shares Outstanding: 100M (approx.) Step 1: Valuation of Gold Resources Conservative: 18M oz x $100/oz = $1.8B Optimistic: 18M oz x $200/oz = $3.6B Step 2: Add Other Assets Total Other Assets = $140M (equity stakes) + $160M (cash) = $300M Step 3: Total Valuation Conservative: $1.8B (gold) + $300M (assets) = $2.1B Optimistic: $3.6B (gold) + $300M (assets) = $3.9B Step 4: Stock Price Estimate Conservative: $2.1B / 100M shares = $21/share Optimistic: $3.9B / 100M shares = $39/share Conclusion: At $4,000 gold, GoldMining Inc.’s stock price could range from $21 to $39/share depending on market valuation of their resources and assets.Read more

Key Takeaways Netflix ad-supported plans will drive new revenue Revenue per user will decrease in short term from ad plans, but increase longer term Margins will continue to improve as costs grow slower than revenue (operating leverage) User growth expected from password sharing crackdown I believe these 3 catalysts will result in $52bn in revenue and $12.5bn profit by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts There is Room For More Than One Streaming Platform The video streaming industry has become very competitive, and the market has been hyper focused on the question of “who will win the streaming war.” I don’t think this is a winner takes all situation, and there is room for a handful of platforms. There are pros and cons to each platform and many households end up subscribing to two or three platforms.Read more
