EVgo is a pure play on U.S.-centric fast charging—the kind of infrastructure critical for mass EV adoption, especially as more drivers demand quick, convenient recharging away from home. Here’s how I see their trajectory:
3 Years (2028): By this point, EVgo should have dramatically expanded its DC fast-charging network, with many more strategic partnerships—think automakers, fleet operators, retailers. They’ll be driving higher station utilization, but profitability may still be elusive. Recurring revenue from subscriptions, fleet services, and software (e.g., app-based payments, charging management for other operators) will play a growing role.
5 Years (2030): If EVs keep their adoption pace, EVgo could see $750M–1B+ in revenue, with profitability a real possibility. Margins should be meaningfully better as the network reaches scale, fixed costs are leveraged, and more revenue comes from software, membership plans, and B2B deals. At this point, they would be a recognized leader in U.S. public fast charging—potentially the go-to brand for highway corridors and dense urban areas. EVgo could become a target for utilities or even OEMs wanting direct control of charging networks.
10 Years (2035): EVgo’s future splits: either maturing as a dependable cash-generating utility-like firm or being snapped up by a larger player—maybe a major utility, oil company pivoting to electricity, or even a private equity firm looking for steady infrastructure cash flows. If they maintain leadership, they could benefit from new revenue streams like grid services, energy storage integration, or dynamic pricing models, making their network even stickier and more valuable.
Valuation: Near-term price action won’t capture the full potential here. If EVgo delivers on network scale, utilization, and recurring revenue, the market should ultimately reward them with a premium multiple—especially if public charging is essential infrastructure for the electrified economy.
Risks: As with Blink and the overall EV infrastructure space, there are substantial risks: pace of EV adoption, price wars, regulatory shifts, and capital intensity. But if you believe in the inevitable electrification of transport and the need for a robust, distributed fast-charging backbone, EVgo is very much in the game—both as a long-term compounder or as an eventual strategic acquisition.
In short: EVgo is a higher-risk, higher-variance play, but also one positioned at the crossroads of the next energy and mobility supercycle. If they execute and adapt, the upside is substantial.
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Disclaimer
The user lewisemery has a position in NasdaqGS:EVGO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
