U.S. Market Community

Paraphrasing Charlie Munger, I would neither buy nor short Tesla, Inc. at present.Read more

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is currently sailing through a complex market environment where record-breaking operational performance is being tested by macroeconomic pressures. As of today, March 27, 2026, the stock closed at $24.18 USD on the NYSE, marking a 4.43% decline for the session.Read more

Business Overview Key Metrics Total: 9.5/17 +2✅✅ Projected Operating Margin: 65.63% +0 ⚠️ Projected 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 9.43% +2 ✅✅ Last 5-Year ROIC: 39.70% +1 ✅ Estimated Cost of Capital: 6.26% (lower than ROIC) -1 ❌ Last 5-Year Shares Outstanding CAGR: +0.15% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year EPS CAGR: 12.38% +1 ✅ Projected 5-Year Dividend CAGR: 12.50% +1.5 ✅ Estimated Debt Rating: Aa3 +2 ✅✅ Morningstar Moat: Wide +0 ⚠️ Morningstar Uncertainty: Medium Business Valuation To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods: Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) - Intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital ; EPS Growth - the fair value is estimated by projected the Earnings Per Share CAGR for the next 5 Years and then, given its current and historic values of PE, come up with a PE for the 5th Year. This will give us its price 5 Years from now using the formula: Price = EPS x PE that we then discount using the estimated cost of capital; Historical P/E - we assume mean reversion to the historical P/E values; Historical EV/EBITDA - we assume mean reversion to the historical EV/EBITDA values.Read more

Investment Thesis The PVH license roll-off (~$470M of lower-margin revenue exiting by FY2028) is a known, finite, manageable headwind; the owned-brand revenue replacing it (DKNY, Karl Lagerfeld, Donna Karan) carries structurally higher gross margins, potentially driving margin expansion even on lower absolute revenues. Owned brands grew from 41% of net sales in FY2023 to 52% in FY2025, with DKNY at $675M and Karl Lagerfeld at $580M — both showing accelerating momentum as standalone global brands.Read more

Lightwave Logic (LWLG) is transitioning from a research-focused entity to a commercial one, with meaningful volume production and licensing revenues anticipated to begin in 2027. Investing.com +1 The following is a breakdown of earnings and revenue expectations for the next three fiscal years based on the company's Q4 2025 earnings call and current guidance: 2026: Execution and Milestone Year Revenue Outlook : Revenue will be driven primarily by material supply and non-recurring engineering (NRE) activities.Read more

Unity Software Inc. (U) is currently undergoing one of the most significant strategic overhauls in its history, attempting to shed its image as a struggling "growth-at-all-costs" firm.Read more

Well, folks, my experience is personal, as such my hope is that experience will help you decide if what I did yesterday with Apple (AAPL) is for you as well: Mine was something few believe, robocalls on this iphone, before that the landlines associated with it-but for the last 8 years, I have been the robocall king with over 28,000 calls-it ruined pretty much everything, as imagine if you had a phone, but could rarely use it because there was so much spam, it never allowed an open line-much less clients to call in-it was an impossible scenario, and then, very quietly, Apple just solved this for everyone with an Iphone-call screening. Now, after all of this interference, that problem is somewhat simply solved by Apple, I cannot stress enough how little this is up played so far.Read more

Once again, I boldly foretell a future possibility for the years ahead. Some reading this may scoff, or may laugh and move on.Read more

Investment Thesis Best-in-class Delaware Basin LOE ($5.26/Boe) and rapidly declining D&C costs (~$700/ft) create a cost-of-production moat against higher-cost peers Deep drilling inventory (1.1B total proved Boe; 322K MBoe PUD) with 10+ year runway acquired below market in cyclical downturns Conservative balance sheet (0.8x Net Debt/EBITDAX) and investment grade credit rating provide optionality through commodity cycles “All of the above” capital allocation — growing base dividend, bolt-on M&A, debt reduction, buybacks — executed by a management team with meaningful insider ownership (>6%) 2026 plan targets ~5% production growth at 6% lower capex, implying continued FCF/share expansion even in a flat or slightly declining price environment Risk Considerations Entire model leveraged to WTI price; at $55 WTI, free cash flow contracts dramatically and the investment thesis narrows materially Single-basin concentration (100% Permian) amplifies exposure to Waha natural gas basis blowouts, regional water disposal constraints, and New Mexico federal land policy risk Debt load (~$3.4B) carries coupon costs of 6–10% across various maturities through 2033; higher-for-longer rates reduce refinancing optionality M&A strategy relies on continued availability of attractively priced bolt-on targets — competition from better-capitalized peers (Diamondback, ExxonMobil) may compress future deal economics No pricing power whatsoever — oil is a commodity; any structural shift in global demand (EV adoption, demand destruction) directly impairs terminal value of proved reserves​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Read more