Gaining Ground on Nvidia

AMD surged after a multi-year OpenAI deal, reshaping its AI prospects and growth outlook.

A key financial claim from AMD leadership: the OpenAI partnership is expected to deliver “tens of billions of dollars” in revenue to AMD and be highly accretive to earnings, with each gigawatt equating to double‑digit billions. ⁠

AMD’s AI thesis strengthens: with MI350 ramping and MI400 on deck, AMD is emerging as the cost‑effective, enterprise‑friendly alternative to Nvidia, positioning to capture accelerating inference demand and incremental market share as Nvidia’s growth normalises.

The upside hinges on sustained revenue growth, margin expansion, and execution across product launches—particularly as the market may still be underestimating post‑2026 AI revenue potential.

Key catalysts include MI350’s strong momentum and rising ASPs, plus MI400’s expected performance leap.

Core risks remain execution on the GPU roadmap, persistent competitive pressure from Nvidia, sensitivity to guidance and earnings that could swing sentiment, and valuation vulnerability after rapid appreciation.

Still a buy at Base case Valuation

AI GPU Ramp-Up: AMD’s MI350 series is launching with strong momentum, offering competitive performance and higher ASPs. The upcoming MI400 is expected to push performance even further.
Market Positioning: AMD is becoming a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia, appealing to enterprise buyers seeking value.
Growth Opportunity: As Nvidia’s growth slows, AMD is poised to capture more market share and deliver higher revenue growth.

Risks

Execution Risk: AMD’s future performance is heavily dependent on the successful ramp-up and adoption of the MI350 and MI400 series. If these products fail to meet expectations, growth could stall⁠.
Competitive Pressure: Nvidia remains a formidable competitor with strong brand recognition and a history of technological leadership. Any misstep by AMD could allow Nvidia to regain its lead.
Market Sentiment: The narrative is currently bullish, but if AMD’s guidance or earnings disappoint, the stock could quickly lose momentum.
Valuation Sensitivity: The stock’s rapid rise could make it vulnerable to corrections if expectations are not met or if broader market conditions change.

Valuation

Upside is tied to continued strong revenue growth, margin expansion, and successful product launches. The market may not have fully priced in the potential AI revenue for 2026 and beyond

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Disclaimer

QuanD is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. QuanD has a position in NasdaqGS:AMD. Simply Wall St has no position in any companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.