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BlackGoat

Stepping Aside on Palantir

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Q2 - Valuation

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unknown

The Oncology Anchor: Why Merck’s 46% Discount Defies the Keytruda Cliff

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Trending Discussion

JA

jayhcee

MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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KT

If they do buy barrick ,will this accelerate price appreciation or slow it down, due to cost associated with the purchase?

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US

The problem with your reasoning is, that 37 Moz are AgEq. If you read the FS, you'll find out that annual silver production is more around 14-15 Moz. But at the time of the FS, that 37 Moz AgEq was a number that came of a formula (which is specified in the FS), being a mix of four metals: Ag, Au, Pb and Zc. But now, beginning of 2026, the spotprices of silver and gold have risen so much in comparison to Pb and Zc prices, that you need to recalculate the AgEq number of 37 Moz according to the recent prices. This will result in the fact that silver and gold hold more value in that mix of four metals, and thus dragg the 37 Moz AgEQ number down to somewhere around 18 Moz AgEq. The more valuable silver and gold become, the lower the AgEq number will get, but it'll never get under the yearly average production of silver, which should be somewhere between 14-15 Moz Ag in the first four years. So in short, with this in mind, your fair value is rather around CA$ 50, even with silver at 300 usd an ounce. But a more prudent stockprice forecast is around CA$ 20 and hopefully going toward CA$ 30. So DSV is a top stock, because it's producing actual gold every quarter. But don't put your hopes too high.

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