New Risk • Apr 01
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (21% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 62% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (UK£1.34m market cap, or US$1.69m). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (10% increase in shares outstanding). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 11
Now 39% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 72% to UK£0.0066. The fair value is estimated to be UK£0.011, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 45% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Duyuru • Mar 11
LoopUp Group plc, Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024 LoopUp Group plc, Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2024, at 11:00 Coordinated Universal Time. Location: Fladgate LLP, 16 Great Queen Street London United Kingdom Agenda: To consider and approve the Cancellation; to consider and approve the Re-registration; to consider and approve an ordinary resolution for an authority to allot in connection with the proposed fundraising; and to consider and approve the resolution for authority to disapply pre-emption rights in connection with the proposed fundraising. New Risk • Sep 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 62% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (18% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 62% per year over the past 5 years. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (83% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$10m (UK£5.04m market cap, or US$6.24m). Reported Earnings • Sep 17
First half 2023 earnings released: UK£0.014 loss per share (vs UK£0.071 loss in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: UK£0.014 loss per share (improved from UK£0.071 loss in 1H 2022). Revenue: UK£12.2m (up 84% from 1H 2022). Net loss: UK£1.67m (loss narrowed 77% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Software industry in the United Kingdom. New Risk • Jul 04
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 8.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-UK£5.4m free cash flow). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (80% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$10m (UK£3.93m market cap, or US$5.00m). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (UK£5.2m net loss in 2 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Jun 08
Full year 2022 earnings released: UK£0.075 loss per share (vs UK£0.39 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: UK£0.075 loss per share (improved from UK£0.39 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: UK£16.5m (down 16% from FY 2021). Net loss: UK£12.7m (loss narrowed 49% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Software industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 5 percentage points per year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to UK£0.13 Down from UK£0.63, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 148% above last closing price of UK£0.052. Stock is down 76% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.087 next year compared to a net loss per share of UK£0.39 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Non-Executive Director Keith Taylor was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 losses forecast to reduce from -UK£0.10 to -UK£0.09 per share. Revenue forecast steady at UK£15.3m. Software industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income decline 3.4% next year. Consensus price target of UK£0.13 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 26% to UK£0.05 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 27
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: UK£0.39 loss per share (down from UK£0.11 profit in FY 2020). Revenue: UK£19.5m (down 61% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£25.0m (down UK£30.9m from profit in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 252%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 22% compared to a 22% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 25 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Jun 09
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: UK£0.44 loss per share (down from UK£0.12 profit in FY 2020). Revenue: UK£19.5m (down 61% from FY 2020). Net loss: UK£27.9m (down UK£34.4m from profit in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 252%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 22% compared to a 26% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 21 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to UK£0.13 Down from UK£0.63, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 13% below last closing price of UK£0.15. Stock is down 80% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of UK£0.14 compared to earnings per share of UK£0.12 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 5 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (3 non-independent directors). Independent Non-Executive Director Keith Taylor was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half 2021 earnings released: UK£0.082 loss per share (vs UK£0.13 profit in 1H 2020) The company reported a poor first half result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. First half 2021 results: Revenue: UK£11.5m (down 64% from 1H 2020). Net loss: UK£4.52m (down 165% from profit in 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 7% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 60% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 06
Consensus revenue estimates fall to UK£30.4m The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from UK£35.4m to UK£30.4m. Forecast losses increased from -UK£0.038 to -UK£0.06 per share. Software industry in the United Kingdom expected to see average net income decline 9.7% next year. Consensus price target of UK£1.57 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 11% to UK£0.81 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS UK£0.12 (vs UK£0.036 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a strong full year result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: UK£50.2m (up 18% from FY 2019). Net income: UK£6.52m (up UK£8.53m from FY 2019). Profit margin: 13% (up from net loss in FY 2019). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 48% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 42% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 10
New 90-day low: UK£0.75 The company is down 63% from its price of UK£2.03 on 10 September 2020. The British market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Software industry, which is down 11% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is per share. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 28
Analysts lower EPS estimates to UK£0.092 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from UK£54.9m to UK£50.2m. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was also lowered from UK£0.11 to UK£0.092 for the same period. Net income is expected to shrink by 71% next year compared to 7.3% decline forecast for the Software industry in the United Kingdom. The consensus price target was lowered from UK£2.97 to UK£1.57. Share price is down by 55% to UK£0.78 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 19
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to UK£1.60, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 15.5x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 18.4x. This compares to an average P/E of 32x in the Software industry in the United Kingdom. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 43%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 12
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to UK£1.90, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 18.4x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 21.7x. This compares to an average P/E of 30x in the Software industry in the United Kingdom. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 33%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 10
New 90-day low: UK£1.76 The company is down 24% from its price of UK£2.32 on 11 August 2020. The British market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Software industry, which is down 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is UK£1.36 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 10
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to UK£1.76, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 17x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 20.8x. This compares to an average P/E of 30x in the Software industry in the United Kingdom. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 38%. Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 06
Chief Operating Officer recently sold UK£225k worth of stock On the 5th of October, Marcus Greensit sold around 100k shares on-market at roughly UK£2.25 per share. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Marcus' only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Sep 25
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of UK£5.72m, with earnings increasing by UK£5.00m from the prior year. Total revenue was UK£52.1m over the last 12 months, up 17% from the prior year.