New Risk • May 19
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Brazilian stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (123% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). New Risk • May 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk High level of debt (123% net debt to equity). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 24
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from R$14.2b to R$12.3b. EPS estimate unchanged from R$1.59 per share at last update. Electric Utilities industry in Brazil expected to see average net income decline 18% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at R$5.15. Share price fell 2.8% to R$5.13 over the past week. New Risk • Apr 08
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Brazilian stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.9% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.4% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 03
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to R$5.34, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Total returns to shareholders of 174% over the past three years. Duyuru • Mar 25
Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 24, 2026 Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 24, 2026. Reported Earnings • Mar 24
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: EPS: R$0.57 (down from R$4.41 in FY 2024). Revenue: R$15.0b (flat on FY 2024). Net income: R$213.0m (down 87% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 1.4% (down from 11% in FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 50%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years, in line with the revenue forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 118% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 43% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate fell from R$2.02 to R$1.15 per share. Revenue forecast steady at R$13.3b. Net income forecast to shrink 69% next year vs 29% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target of R$5.10 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at R$5.17 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$0.09 (vs R$0.42 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$0.09 (down from R$0.42 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: R$3.63b (down 2.3% from 3Q 2024). Net income: R$32.6m (down 79% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.9% (down from 4.2% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.1% decline forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: R$0.14 loss per share (vs R$0.14 loss in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: R$0.14 loss per share (improved from R$0.14 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: R$3.46b (down 7.1% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: R$51.4m (flat on 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.6% decline forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 82% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 24
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has improved. 2025 revenue forecast increased from R$13.2b to R$13.9b. EPS estimate increased from R$1.32 to R$1.56 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 76% next year vs 39% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target of R$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 4.8% to R$6.09 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 23
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 46% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 46% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk High level of debt (113% net debt to equity). Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: R$1.13 (vs R$0.97 loss in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: R$1.13 (up from R$0.97 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: R$3.74b (up 13% from 1Q 2024). Net income: R$419.2m (up R$776.6m from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 11% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Apr 14
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 123% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (10% average weekly change). Minor Risk High level of debt (123% net debt to equity). Duyuru • Apr 02
Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025 Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2025. Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: R$4.41 (up from R$0.70 in FY 2023). Revenue: R$14.9b (up 5.4% from FY 2023). Net income: R$1.64b (up R$1.39b from FY 2023). Profit margin: 11% (up from 1.8% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 14%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates significantly. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 16% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Mar 22
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Brazilian stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: R$0.42 (up from R$0.029 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: R$3.72b (up 6.4% from 3Q 2023). Net income: R$157.5m (up R$168.5m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.2% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil are expected to grow by 1.2%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 27% per year. New Risk • Aug 26
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: R$370m Forecast net loss in 1 year: R$39m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (R$39m net loss next year). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2024 earnings released Second quarter 2024 results: Revenue: R$3.75b (up 12% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: R$12.2m (down 111% from profit in 2Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil are expected to grow by 1.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 41 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Jul 17
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next year. Trailing 12-month net loss: R$209m Forecast net loss in 1 year: R$337m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. New Risk • Jul 15
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 63% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. New Risk • Jun 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Brazilian stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to R$5.82, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Total loss to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. New Risk • Jun 04
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 12% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2024 earnings released: R$0.97 loss per share (vs R$0.29 profit in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: R$0.97 loss per share (down from R$0.29 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: R$3.32b (down 8.1% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: R$357.3m (down 434% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil are expected to grow by 1.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 40 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 61% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from R$14.0b to R$13.0b. EPS estimate also fell from R$1.23 per share to R$0.48 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 30% next year vs 12% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target of R$4.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at R$5.17 over the past week. New Risk • Mar 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.1x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the foreseeable future. New Risk • Mar 26
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.1x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.1x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Duyuru • Jan 16
Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2024 Light S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 30, 2024. Price Target Changed • Nov 23
Price target decreased by 27% to R$4.49 Down from R$6.16, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 26% below last closing price of R$6.10. Stock is up 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.41 next year compared to a net loss per share of R$15.46 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 12
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$0.29 (vs R$0.22 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: R$0.29 (up from R$0.22 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: R$3.35b (down 1.9% from 2Q 2022). Net income: R$109.4m (up R$189.4m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.3% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 101 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Aug 08
Price target increased by 10% to R$6.49 Up from R$5.90, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 11% below last closing price of R$7.32. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.30 next year compared to a net loss per share of R$15.46 last year. Price Target Changed • May 17
Price target increased by 8.5% to R$6.40 Up from R$5.90, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 66% above last closing price of R$3.85. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.64 next year compared to a net loss per share of R$15.46 last year. Reported Earnings • May 12
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: R$0.29 (vs R$0.29 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: R$0.29 (up from R$0.29 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: R$3.61b (up 2.0% from 1Q 2022). Net income: R$107.1m (up R$213.2m from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.0% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 98 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: R$13.3b (down 11% from FY 2021). Net loss: R$5.67b (down R$6.07b from profit in FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 38 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Price Target Changed • Feb 17
Price target decreased by 17% to R$7.21 Down from R$8.66, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 173% above last closing price of R$2.64. Stock is down 73% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of R$0.13 compared to earnings per share of R$1.08 last year. Price Target Changed • Jan 16
Price target decreased to R$8.66 Down from R$9.70, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 92% above last closing price of R$4.50. Stock is down 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.054 for next year compared to R$1.08 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 12 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 12 new directors. No experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Helio Ferraz is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: R$3.46b (down 12% from 3Q 2021). Net income: R$7.88m (down 98% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 0.2% (down from 9.3% in 3Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 43 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 30
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from R$0.35 to R$0.25 per share. Revenue forecast steady at R$13.8b. Net income forecast to grow 66% next year vs 12% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target down from R$10.97 to R$10.72. Share price fell 4.8% to R$5.76 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 15
Price target decreased to R$11.23 Down from R$12.13, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 72% above last closing price of R$6.54. Stock is down 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.40 for next year compared to R$1.08 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 30
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 24% share price decline to R$5.78, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Total loss to shareholders of 70% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 07
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from R$16.4b to R$14.9b. EPS estimate rose from R$0.45 to R$0.62. Net income forecast to grow 7.7% next year vs 29% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target down from R$12.71 to R$12.31. Share price rose 3.6% to R$7.98 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • May 18
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast increased from R$14.8b to R$18.3b. EPS estimate fell from R$0.79 to R$0.03. Net income forecast to shrink 44% next year vs 35% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target of R$12.81 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at R$8.28 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 13
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: R$3.54b (down 4.1% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: R$106.0m (loss widened 154% from 1Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 11%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20% compared to a 14% decline forecast for the industry in Brazil. Board Change • Apr 26
High number of new and inexperienced directors There are 12 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 12 new directors. No experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Helio Ferraz is the most experienced director on the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of board continuity. Lack of experienced directors. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 20
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from R$15.4b to R$15.2b. EPS estimate rose from R$0.75 to R$0.89. Net income forecast to shrink 20% next year vs 31% decline forecast for Electric Utilities industry in Brazil. Consensus price target down from R$13.61 to R$13.01. Share price fell 11% to R$8.81 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 19
Price target decreased to R$13.01 Down from R$14.11, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 43% above last closing price of R$9.10. Stock is down 53% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of R$0.75 for next year compared to R$1.08 last year.