Stock Analysis

Combined Motor Holdings' (JSE:CMH) Shareholders Are Down 36% On Their Shares

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JSE:CMH
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Combined Motor Holdings Limited (JSE:CMH) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 17% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. Truth be told the share price declined 36% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

View our latest analysis for Combined Motor Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Combined Motor Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 27% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 14% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
JSE:CMH Earnings Per Share Growth February 10th 2021

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Combined Motor Holdings, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Combined Motor Holdings shareholders are down 7.5% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 12% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Combined Motor Holdings (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on ZA exchanges.

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