Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Sappi Limited's (JSE:SAP) Shares

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.6x in the Forestry industry in South Africa, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Sappi Limited's (JSE:SAP) P/S ratio of 0.3x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

See our latest analysis for Sappi

How Sappi Has Been Performing

Sappi's negative revenue growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. It seems that few are expecting the company's revenue performance to deviate much from most other companies, which has held the P/S back. If you still like the company, you'd want its revenue trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. In saying that, existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the share price if the company's revenue continues tracking the industry.

Keen to find out how analysts think Sappi's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Sappi's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 22%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 20% overall rise in revenue. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 3.8% each year during the coming three years according to the six analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 6.3% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's curious that Sappi's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Sappi's P/S

Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

When you consider that Sappi's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Sappi (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com