South32 Limited

JSE:S32 Stock Report

Market Cap: R178.9b

South32 Valuation

Is S32 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of S32 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: S32 (ZAR39.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (ZAR1.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: S32 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for S32?

Key metric: As S32 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for S32. This is calculated by dividing S32's market cap by their current revenue.
What is S32's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.7x
SalesUS$5.59b
Market CapUS$9.58b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does S32's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for S32 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2x
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
2.6x8.2%R29.7b
GFI Gold Fields
2.8x14.6%R227.4b
AMS Anglo American Platinum
1.4x-1.9%R153.8b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
1.3x-5.1%R105.9b
S32 South32
1.7x8.7%R15.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: S32 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does S32's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the ZA Metals and Mining Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ACL ArcelorMittal South Africa
0.04x10.4%US$78.78m
HLM Hulamin
0.08xn/aUS$57.53m
CMO Chrometco
0.1xn/aUS$8.36m
No more companies available in this PS range
S32 1.7xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies5PS00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: S32 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is S32's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

S32 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.7x
Fair PS Ratio1.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: S32 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst S32 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR39.40
R44.67
+13.4%
14.0%R54.10R27.45n/a14
Dec ’25R43.45
R44.47
+2.3%
14.2%R54.59R27.70n/a14
Nov ’25R42.83
R44.09
+2.9%
14.8%R53.58R26.52n/a14
Oct ’25R43.43
R42.59
-1.9%
15.1%R52.63R26.29n/a14
Sep ’25R37.30
R43.71
+17.2%
15.6%R54.52R26.96n/a15
Aug ’25R36.93
R45.79
+24.0%
11.3%R55.97R36.93n/a14
Jul ’25R45.30
R49.37
+9.0%
9.7%R57.66R38.92n/a14
Jun ’25R49.60
R48.60
-2.0%
10.4%R57.35R40.12n/a14
May ’25R43.15
R47.23
+9.5%
9.3%R58.76R41.43n/a14
Apr ’25R36.91
R46.34
+25.5%
9.4%R57.80R40.79n/a14
Mar ’25R37.42
R47.03
+25.7%
8.9%R58.40R42.22n/a13
Feb ’25R40.29
R47.59
+18.1%
9.8%R58.78R38.45n/a13
Jan ’25R42.19
R48.21
+14.3%
10.9%R59.69R37.86n/a13
Dec ’24R38.40
R48.95
+27.5%
11.7%R59.58R37.79R43.4513
Nov ’24R39.47
R49.62
+25.7%
12.4%R62.49R38.44R42.8313
Oct ’24R41.64
R50.59
+21.5%
11.8%R63.16R41.28R43.4312
Sep ’24R41.97
R50.16
+19.5%
11.1%R62.35R42.05R37.3012
Aug ’24R47.28
R52.91
+11.9%
9.6%R63.93R45.65R36.9312
Jul ’24R48.25
R58.75
+21.8%
9.3%R70.24R52.73R45.3012
Jun ’24R49.65
R64.11
+29.1%
8.7%R76.04R58.07R49.6012
May ’24R51.00
R59.94
+17.5%
8.7%R70.52R52.78R43.1514
Apr ’24R52.02
R62.11
+19.4%
8.4%R71.72R54.97R36.9115
Mar ’24R55.60
R63.24
+13.7%
8.0%R72.92R56.02R37.4216
Feb ’24R56.19
R59.59
+6.1%
8.4%R68.02R51.65R40.2917
Jan ’24R46.39
R54.92
+18.4%
13.3%R69.27R40.26R42.1917
Dec ’23R51.40
R54.27
+5.6%
13.6%R70.23R40.82R38.4017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 09:13
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

South32 Limited is covered by 48 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Izak RossouwBarclays