Kumba Iron Ore Limited

JSE:KIO Stock Report

Market Cap: R104.6b

Kumba Iron Ore Valuation

Is KIO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of KIO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: KIO (ZAR326.52) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (ZAR144.72)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: KIO is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KIO?

Key metric: As KIO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KIO. This is calculated by dividing KIO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KIO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.2x
EarningsR14.61b
Market CapR104.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KIO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KIO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.6x
MRF Merafe Resources
21.4xn/aR3.0b
NPH Northam Platinum Holdings
14.9x22.09%R136.6b
IMP Impala Platinum Holdings
29x34.48%R238.3b
ARI African Rainbow Minerals
37.1x21.37%R47.8b
KIO Kumba Iron Ore
7.2x-13.08%R104.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the peer average (25.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KIO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KIO 7.2xIndustry Avg. 19.6xNo. of Companies4PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KIO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KIO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio8.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KIO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KIO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR326.52
R307.29
-5.89%
9.71%R340.00R251.00n/a7
May ’27R312.48
R306.00
-2.07%
9.48%R340.00R251.00n/a7
Apr ’27R326.92
R311.71
-4.65%
10.93%R365.00R251.00n/a7
Mar ’27R367.58
R328.74
-10.57%
7.75%R365.00R290.00n/a8
Feb ’27R360.00
R335.21
-6.89%
6.78%R376.64R310.00n/a8
Jan ’27R351.06
R330.83
-5.76%
6.82%R376.64R300.00n/a8
Dec ’26R336.47
R328.58
-2.34%
6.70%R376.64R300.00n/a8
Nov ’26R345.25
R321.08
-7.00%
7.60%R376.64R290.00n/a8
Oct ’26R328.38
R336.25
+2.40%
10.24%R385.00R290.00n/a8
Sep ’26R316.50
R333.75
+5.45%
11.45%R385.00R270.00n/a8
Aug ’26R288.32
R335.13
+16.23%
11.99%R396.00R270.00n/a8
Jul ’26R286.94
R350.63
+22.19%
13.48%R414.00R260.00n/a8
Jun ’26R294.67
R348.13
+18.14%
14.60%R414.00R260.00n/a8
May ’26R323.50
R348.13
+7.61%
14.60%R414.00R260.00R312.488
Apr ’26R313.64
R357.00
+13.82%
12.65%R405.00R270.00R326.928
Mar ’26R370.00
R373.11
+0.84%
15.77%R487.00R270.00R367.589
Feb ’26R388.63
R377.03
-2.99%
15.51%R487.00R290.00R360.009
Jan ’26R326.25
R368.81
+13.04%
16.12%R487.00R290.00R351.069
Dec ’25R332.57
R375.47
+12.90%
15.15%R487.00R290.00R336.479
Nov ’25R342.65
R382.70
+11.69%
12.70%R487.00R330.00R345.259
Oct ’25R395.07
R398.33
+0.83%
11.43%R487.00R330.00R328.389
Sep ’25R352.90
R417.67
+18.35%
8.38%R487.00R370.00R316.509
Aug ’25R393.11
R429.90
+9.36%
11.51%R540.00R370.00R288.3210
Jul ’25R447.13
R451.89
+1.06%
10.14%R540.00R390.00R286.949
Jun ’25R490.26
R458.67
-6.44%
9.03%R540.00R410.00R294.679
May ’25R463.52
R466.33
+0.61%
9.87%R540.00R410.00R323.506
R307.29
Fair Value
6.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
7
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/13 08:02
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/12 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Kumba Iron Ore Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mpumelelo MthembuAbsa Bank Limited
Wade NapierAvior Capital Markets
Caroline LearmonthBarclays