Kumba Iron Ore Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Kumba Iron Ore's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -17%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings declining at 12% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 7.6% per year. Kumba Iron Ore's return on equity is 26.6%, and it has net margins of 20.8%.
Key information
-17.02%
Earnings growth rate
-17.02%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining Industry Growth | 36.20% |
| Revenue growth rate | -7.63% |
| Return on equity | 26.60% |
| Net Margin | 20.85% |
| Next Earnings Update | 28 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
KIO: Future Returns Will Rely On Rail Delivery And Stable Payouts
Analysts have raised their price target for Kumba Iron Ore from ZAR306 to about ZAR314, citing updated assumptions that reflect slightly slower expected revenue declines, a modestly higher projected profit margin, and a small adjustment to the forecast future P/E multiple and discount rate. What's in the News Kumba Iron Ore reported first quarter 2026 production of 8.8 Mt, compared with 9.0 Mt in Q1 2025, with lower output at Kolomela partly offset by higher production at Sishen.KIO: Future Returns Will Depend On Dividends And Rail Logistics Delivery
Analysts have set their Kumba Iron Ore price target at ZAR306, down slightly from ZAR310.29. This reflects small updates to discount rate assumptions, softer revenue growth expectations, and a modestly higher profit margin outlook and future P/E estimate.KIO: Future Returns Will Rely On Dividends And Rail Capacity Delivery
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Kumba Iron Ore slightly, with fair value moving from about ZAR313.14 to around ZAR310.29 as they factor in updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News Kumba Iron Ore approved a gross final cash dividend of ZAR15.43 per share for the year ended 31 December 2025, with a net dividend of ZAR12.34 per share after 20% withholding tax for non exempt shareholders, payable on 16 March 2026 (Key Developments).KIO: Fair Value Will Depend On Dividends And Rail Logistics Delivery
Analysts have reduced their price target for Kumba Iron Ore from ZAR320.70 to ZAR313.14, citing revised assumptions that include flatter revenue growth, a higher profit margin, and a slightly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Kumba Iron Ore approved a gross final cash dividend of 1,543 cents per share for the year ended 31 December 2025, with a 20% dividend withholding tax for non exempt shareholders, resulting in a net dividend of 1,234.40 cents per share (company announcement).KIO: Fair Value Will Persist As Dividends Balance Logistics Production Risks
Analysts have trimmed their ZAR340 fair value estimate for Kumba Iron Ore to about ZAR320.70, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E levels. What's in the News Kumba Iron Ore declared a gross final cash dividend of ZAR15.43 per share for the year ended 31 December 2025.KIO: Fair Value Will Hold As Production Adjusts To Logistics Constraints
Analysts have raised their price target for Kumba Iron Ore from ZAR323.58 to ZAR340.00, citing an updated valuation framework that links a slightly lower discount rate with revised expectations for revenue, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News Kumba issued production guidance for 2026 of 31 to 33 Mt, which the company expects to be lower than 2025.Kumba Iron Ore's (JSE:KIO) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...KIO: Fair Value Maintained While Production Faces Pressure From Plant Maintenance
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Kumba Iron Ore at R323.58 per share. They cite only minor adjustments to discount rates and profit margin forecasts in their latest review.KIO: Future Production Will Face Risk From Maintenance And Plant Upgrades
Analysts have raised their price target for Kumba Iron Ore from R320.88 to R323.58. This reflects updated expectations around the company’s outlook and underlying financial metrics.Improved Earnings Required Before Kumba Iron Ore Limited (JSE:KIO) Shares Find Their Feet
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x Kumba Iron Ore Limited ( JSE:KIO ) may be sending bullish signals at...Analysts Trim Kumba Iron Ore Fair Value Estimate Amid Dividend Declaration and Production Update
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Kumba Iron Ore downward from R327.50 to R320.88 due to slightly reduced revenue growth and profitability expectations. What's in the News Kumba Iron Ore declared a gross interim cash dividend of 1,660 cents per share for the period ended 30 June 2025.Sishen UHDMS Upgrade Will Boost Premium Ore Amid Cost Pressure
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Kumba Iron Ore downward from R333.75 to R327.50. This change reflects more cautious assumptions about future growth and profitability.Kumba Iron Ore (JSE:KIO) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Sishen UHDMS Upgrade Will Boost Premium Ore Amid Cost Pressure
Investment in high-grade iron ore production, efficiency programs, and logistics partnerships position Kumba for margin growth despite potential market pressures.Kumba Iron Ore Limited's (JSE:KIO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 8x in South Africa, you could be forgiven for feeling...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Kumba Iron Ore makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 70,077 | 14,611 | 25,539 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 68,670 | 14,638 | 25,456 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 67,262 | 14,664 | 25,373 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 67,896 | 14,682 | 25,498 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 68,529 | 14,699 | 25,623 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 76,143 | 17,465 | 25,478 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 83,757 | 20,230 | 25,333 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 84,996 | 21,478 | 24,532 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 86,234 | 22,725 | 23,730 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 77,784 | 17,891 | 23,359 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 69,334 | 13,056 | 22,988 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 71,683 | 14,012 | 23,068 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 74,032 | 14,968 | 23,147 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 77,743 | 18,218 | 22,782 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 81,453 | 21,467 | 22,416 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 91,773 | 27,367 | 21,654 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 102,092 | 33,266 | 20,891 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 107,117 | 35,495 | 26,411 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 112,141 | 37,724 | 31,931 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 96,123 | 30,252 | 26,972 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 80,104 | 22,779 | 22,012 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 70,735 | 18,694 | 11,039 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 61,366 | 14,609 | 65 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 62,826 | 15,434 | 65 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 64,285 | 16,259 | 65 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 62,517 | 16,500 | 6,231 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 60,749 | 16,741 | -18 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 53,237 | 13,208 | -27 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 45,725 | 9,674 | -37 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 45,039 | 10,208 | 4,639 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 44,353 | 10,742 | 3,120 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 45,366 | 11,576 | 4,449 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 46,379 | 12,409 | 5,778 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 45,234 | 11,376 | 5,560 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 44,089 | 10,343 | 5,342 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 42,122 | 9,481 | 5,347 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 40,155 | 8,618 | 5,352 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 36,515 | 4,859 | 5,301 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 32,875 | 1,100 | 5,250 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 34,068 | 830 | 5,363 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 35,260 | 559 | 5,475 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 38,190 | 3,582 | 5,335 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 41,119 | 6,605 | 5,194 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: KIO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: KIO's current net profit margins (20.8%) are lower than last year (21.4%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: KIO's earnings have declined by 17% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: KIO's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: KIO had negative earnings growth (-0.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (98%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: KIO's Return on Equity (26.6%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/18 14:29 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Kumba Iron Ore Limited is covered by 18 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Mpumelelo Mthembu | Absa Bank Limited |
| Wade Napier | Avior Capital Markets |
| Caroline Learmonth | Barclays |